11th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

11th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 EZ SPKER 0900 EZ ECB 0930 UK MAN PROD
1000 EZ ECON 1200 UK IR 1330 US PPI

Previous Day – RANGE DAY WITH STRONG DOWN CLOSE T 60.80 TSTED, SO BAC OF 60.11 T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.81060.98 and bac 60.11

10m – Down TR, looking for LH, 52-60 (?) and bac 60.22 then 60.11

Context Play

1. TR CONT

Shorts: hold 52-60 t 40 t2 25-18 bac 18 t11 (watch for bof) bac 11 t00 t2 89-72 t 59.48

2. Balance

Longs: hold 25-11 or bof 11 then longs t 54

Shorts: hold 67-83 then shorts t 54

10th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 GE AUC 1300 EZ DRAGHI 1330 US EX/IM
1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – Range day with neutral down close with bof of 60.14 (DB) hi at 60.48 upside t 60.80-61.00 Downside BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.44-54 bac 60.11 for cont

10m – Neutral, in blance 60.44-60.11 bac for dir poss bull trap @ 44-54

Context Play

1. BU

Longs: bac 44 hold 38.-25 on rrt t 54 bac 67 t 77-82 t2 88-98 watch for bof

2. Balance

Shorts hold bof 44-54 t 38 t2 25

Longs hold/bof 20-11 t 36

3. BD

Shorts bac 14 gold 18 on rrt t 00 t2 89-72 bac 73 t 59-48

9th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

9th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE IND PROD 1400 US FOMC SPK 1500 US JOLTS

Previous Day – Range day with neutral up close BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.81-61.00 bac 60.25 then 14

10m – Down TR, in LTF bal, hold 60.77 -60.88 and bac 60.38 for cont

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Short: hold/bof 60.57 bac 60.37 t 60.25-14 (watch for bof) bac t 89-73 bac t 59.50

2. Balance / PB

Longs: hold / bof 60.37-25 and bac 56 t 60.67 t2 77-88

Shorts: hold 60.77-88 t 67 t2 56 t3 37

8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE FACTORY 1335 US FOMC SPKRS FR ELECTION

Previous Day – BEAR DAY WITH STRONG DOWN CLOSE BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – hold 60.97-61.15 bac 60.37 then 60.14 for cont

10m – hold 60.69-60.77 bac 60.37

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Short: hold/bof 60.57 bac 60.37 t 60.25-14 (watch for bof) bac t 89-73 bac t 59.50

2. Balance / PB

Longs: hold / bof 60.37-25 bac 56 t 60.69-60.77

Shorts: hold 60.69-.77 t 56 t 37

3. 60min PB

BAC of 77 then longs t88 t2 97-17

Shorts: messy area 97-17 t 80

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 137k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 46k.

Is there a trend in the data?

The large miss has put a dent in the trend and overall flat for the last six months.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Not applicable but a number less than 210 could mean a change in trend in these numbers.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 185k

Between 160k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

160k to 135k would be a miss. 210k to 245k would be a beat.

Below 135k would be a big miss and above 245k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 30 NFPs’ (Time 1330 to 1500 BST)

In 22 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 7 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

30

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


62.15

HI

61.73-94

SZ

61.48

LVN

61.26-20

POC/SESS HI

CP
60.74

SESS LO

60.43-37

CONF

60.23-14

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE / EZ PMI 0900 UK PMI 1000 EZ RETAIL
1130/1200 EZ SPKERS 1330 US INIT JOBS 1500 US FACT ORD

Previous Day – ID X 3 – HI @ 62.15 LO @ 61.02

Big Picture

60m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

10m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

Context Play

1. Balance – Break down

Short – bac 61.45 t 61.34-26 bac 26 t 61.12 t2 61.02 bac 60.85-64 (watch for bof @02)

2. Balance

Longs – hold / bof 61.25 t 61.45

Shorts – hold/bof 62.15 t 61.94

3. Balance – Break up

Longs – bac 62.15 t 61.24/38 bac 38 t 62.50

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE/EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ UNEMPLOY

Previous Day – Inside day with weak down close

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, HL at 61.26, for t/c to Up, hold 61.26 and bac 62.15

10m – Up, hold 61.48-61.26 and bac of 61.85 (HL at 61.60 ???)

Context Play

1.Up

Longs hold 61.60 t 61.73 t 61.85 bac t62.03 t 62.15 bac 62.30-38.(Watch for bof at 62.15)

2. Balance

Shorts: Hold 61.85 bac 61.73 bac 61.64 t 48 bac 48 t 36-26

Longs: Hold 48 or 36-26 t 61.73

3. Down

Shorts: bac 61.26 t 61.02 (watch for bof) bac t 84-77


26th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

26th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 US CRUDE

Previous week – Range week with strong down close, at channel top and bal va extreme, bac of 62.50 t 61.54 t2 60.94 t3 60.18

Previous Day – Down day with strong down close, m50% at 61.00 tbc

Big Picture

60m – Down, hold 60.93-61.10 and bac 60.71 for cont

10m – Down, hold 60.93-00 and bac 60.66 for cont

Context Play

1. Down

Shorts: hold 60.93-61.10 bac 60.71 t 59 bac 59 t 44 t2 23-14 (watch for bof)

2. Balance

Longs: hold 60.58 t 60.71 bac t 81 t2 90-00

Shorts holds 61.90-00-10 t 60.80 t2 60.70

3. Up

Longs: bac 61.10 t 61.19 bac 21 t 61.31-37


25th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

25th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 GE AUCT 1400 US SP HPI 1500 US CONS CONF

Previous week – Range week with strong down close, at channel top and bal va extreme, bac of 62.50 t 61.54 t2 60.94 t3 60.18

Previous Day – Gap down to weekly targets 61.54 and 60.94, neutral close(bupin hi @61.63)

Big Picture

60m – Down, balance day, bac of 60.93 for cont and bac of 61.61 for pb

10m – Up, hold 61.40-33 bac 61.63 for cont

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts: hold/bof 57-70 t 40 t2 33 t2 25

Longs: hold/bof 16-07 t 25 t2 33 t 40

2. Up

Longs: bac 63 t 78 t2 62.02 bac 62.02 t 62.18-30

3. Down

Shorts: bav 08 t 93 (watch for bof) t 60.78 t2 69-59 t3 45


24th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

FR ELECTION 0900 GE IFO

Previous week – Range week with strong down close, at channel top and bal va extreme, bac of 62.50 t 61.54 t2 60.94 t3 60.18

Previous Day – Range day with strong down close, tst first time back to d.bz 62.68-02, mode rot down on daily.

Big Picture

60m – Down, for cont, hold 84-96 bac 62.49

10m – Neutral, for direction bac 96 or 49

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts: hold 84-96 t 71 t2 60-49

Longs: hold/bof 49 t 71 t2 84-96

2. Breakdown

Shorts: hold 60-71 bac 49 t 38 (poc) bac 38

Longs: hold 38 T 50 t2 60

Shorts: bac 38 t 19-00 (watch for bof) bac 00 t 61.77-64

3. Breakup

Longs: bac 94 hold 90-80 on retest T 08 t2 16-26 bac 26 t 34-44