Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions
What is the Range and 1 SD?
Number range for last 6 months is 84k
1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 33k.
Is there a trend in the data?
Slight uptrend continuing. A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.
What number would constitute a change in the trend?
A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.
An above average figure of 200k would not affect the trend.
What would be a big beat/miss?
Exp is for 180k
Between 150k to 230k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.
150k to 120k would be a miss. 230k to 260k would be a beat.
Below 120k would be a big miss and above 260k would be a big beat.
Notes – Out of the Last 29 NFPs’
In 21 cases, the low was made by 1345
In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345
What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks
Last 12 NFP
What is the Daily / 240 Structure
Hypo NFP EXP = 180K
Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)
Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM
If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%
If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%
BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin
BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level
Join on SM 50% T next level
If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%