13th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER TB 0930 UK MAN PROD EU SUMMIT
1330 US NFP

Previous Day – Down day, in prev bal area target daily bz at 58.98-58.10 and bal poc at 58.54

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, for cont, hold 59.44-77 bac 58.87 tst d.bz Friday (ftb and messy level)

10m – Down TR, for cont, hold 59.26-36 bac 56.87

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts hold 25-36 t 59

Longs hold / bof 58.87 t 59.10

2. TR cont

Short bac 58.87 t 80 bac 80 t 58.54-42

Longs hold 58.54-42 T 58.80

Weekly Trading Review – Amateur Hour

Weekly Trading Review – Amateur Hour

Weekly Trading Review – 27th February to 3rd March

Summary of Performance

Not a great week. I did not trade well.

Week started off very well, and then poor trading mid-week, left me drained of emotional energy and traded very conservatively for the remainder.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Monday was focused, and followed my plan, took every Grade A setup. Traded well.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Mid-week was trend down days, and I tried to fade these areas. Nothing wrong with the set ups per se, but I know these have a lower probability of working when fading trend days.

Why was I trying to fade a trend day?

I suspected that it was a trend early on when price did not react at certain key levels, and tried to get in with the direction of the trend day.

The reason is simple with hindsight, that all my initial trades, when I suspected that a trend direction was setting up, did not get filled, either on blind order or off my auto triggers and price left without me.

I then tried to constantly to fade the trend.

This is purely revenge trading driven by the emotion of fear of missing out, and over confidence in my areas and triggers.

This is not a new lesson, I have made this mistake in the past. The difference is that in the past it was driven, by not taking a trade due to fear of loss and then trying to fade my own plan, to make up for it.

This time, I tried to get in and then tried to fade my plan.

I am aware of this but in the heat of the moment this past lesson went out the window.

I re built my system so that I trade my context plays, with blind orders and auto triggers off various set ups. My system is not taking any the setup without context. My stats show whilst this has a small edge of time, that my best trades all come from playing the setups in line with my context read.

I spent plenty of time, systemising my context plays, and my setups and entries. It seems pretty fucking stupid not to follow the system because I got left behind on a couple of trades.

What is the good news

I traded a lot better on the last 2 days, even though I was very conservative, but I was aware of my emotions when twice I did not get filled off my auto triggers, for my main play. Even when over 400 contracts traded at my price and I still did not get filled. I then focused on trying to find opportunities to get a second chance of getting in to my main play rather than trying to scalp low probabilities entries again the main play.

I noticed a sequence of order flow in my fades of the trend day, which I can use at the very minimum to exit fades trades (if I am in them), and at the best to get in with the direction for a low risk entry in the direction of the day.

7th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

7th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Ind Prod 1500 US JOLTS

 

Tue Neu (0.8)

Up

60/80

Dwn

40/60

Weekly Summary – Inside week hi @ 62.68(bac)/63.38(bac?) lo @ 61.35/61.31

Previous Day – ERC up with strong close. 50% @62.98 (TBC)

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD < 30D SD.

Big Picture

60m – Long TR, bac of channel top, hold 63.10-62.92 bac 63.50 d.sz (2tb) at 63.80-64.42(bear trap at 62.92)

10m – Long TR, hold 63.26-63.18 bac 63.50

Context Play

1. Trend – PB and Cont

Long: Hold / BOF 63.24-63.18 t 44-50 bac 50 t 72 -80 T2 91

2. Trend Cont

Long: Hold 63.38 bac 50 T 72-80 t2 91 t2 64.04 t4 28-45

3. Into Balance

Short: BOF of 50 and bac of 38 t 24-18 t2 63.10-6

Longs: Hold/Bof 06-93 t 10 t2 24 t3 38

Red flag levels – Short trades bac 63.50 till 63.91 Long trades 62.92

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 104k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 36k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Above 200K would be a breakout of the current range.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 175k

Between 135k to 215k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

95 to 134k would be a miss. 216 to 255 would be a beat.

Below 94k would be a big miss and above 255k would be a big beat. ****

Notes – Out of the Last 12 NFPs’

In 7 cases, the low was made by 1345(3 miss and 4 beats)

In 4 cases, the high was made by 1345 (4 miss)

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90 68
VAH70 60
VAL70 40
MODE 53

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


 

Hypo NFP EXP = 175K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

62.78

COR ZONE

42-57

POC/DHL

62.29

SESS HI

CP
62.01

YPOC/CVAH

61.78-63

BZ/DL/CPOV

61.50-55

D.LOW/CVAL

61.44

CVAL2

61.36-34

BZ

Trade 1

Join the IM 50%; T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before / at 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50%; T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

,

1st Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

1st Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855 Ger PMI 1035 Bobl Auction 1315 US ADP NFE
1445 US PMI 1500 US ISM PMI 1530 US CRUDE
1900 FOMC

WEDS – Down(2)

Up

49/71

Dwn

50/80

Weekly Summary – Down week

Previous Day – Neutral day

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD < 30D SD.

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, in bal, c.Pbip, for cont, hold /bof 62.34 bac 61.19

15m – Neutral/Long TR, at top of bal, bac 62.34 for cont, bac 61.89 for back to va

Poss BOF at 22 in play

Context Play

1. Balance Breakup – Retest and rejection

Long: Hold 61.99-89 T 62.20-34 bac 34 (watch for bof 34); t 48 t2 60-70bac 70 T 86-63.01

2. Balance -Bof return to va

Shorts: Bac 61.89 T 62.75-67 bac 67 t 57-49

Longs: 57-49 (bof 49) t 75

Red flag levels – Short trades bac 62.35 Long trades 61.19

24th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0830 Ger PMI 0900 EZ PMI 1500 US Home Sales

 

Tuesday – Up (2)

Up

54/74

Dwn

-50/70

Weekly Summary – Outside down week 50% @ 63.32

Previous Day – Up range day with up close

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60m – Neutral TR, for t/c to long, LL 03-89(?) and bac 63.38

15m – Up Tr, for cont hold 0-94 bac 63.28

Context Play

1. 15m Trend – Long Cont

Long: hold 14-12 t 29-32 bac 38 t 46-58 bac 58 t 67-80

Long: hold 03-94 t 14 t2 29-32 bac 38 t 46-58

Shorts 67-82 pent 72 t 46

2. 15m Balance – Outside / In

Shorts: Hold / BOF 32-4 t 63.03 t2 89-80

Longs: hold 80-89 t 63.03 t2 63.14 t3 63.29

3. 15min Trend chance to short and test lower

Shorts: bac 80, shorts on retest to 80-89 t 68 t 57-55

Longs: Hold/Bof 57-45 t 81

Red flag levels – Short trades bac 63.28/38 Long trades 62.47

23rd Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

23rd Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1130 Ez Draghi

 

Mon – NEU (0.0)

Up

40

Dwn

-40

Weekly Summary – Outside down week 50% @ 63.32

Previous Day – Outside down day 50% @62.74

General Bias SC = -3

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, hold 63-63.29 bac 61.96

15m – Down TR, for cont hold 58-73 bac 62.20, Pbip and poss bear trap at 62.20

Context Play

1. 60m CPB – 15m Balance

Short: Hold/BOF 58-72 T 44 t2 29-20

Long: Hold/BOF 30-20 t 44 t2 60-73

2. 60m PB

Longs: Holds 62.40-62.20 bac 73 T 89 Bac 89 T 00-18

Shorts: Holds 84-90 T 73 T2 63-55 T3 20-00

Shorts: Holds 00-28 T 84 T2 73 T3 63 T4 20-00

3. 60m TR EXT

Shorts: Holds 58-73 BAC 62.20 T 62.10 T2 62.96

Longs: Holds/BOF 10-04 T 30 PENT 04

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.28 Long trades 61.96

20th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

20th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 0930 UK Retail Sales 1245 EZ IR
1330 US Job Claims 1330 EZ Prezzer

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – d.t1 done, with upday with weak bull close D.Pinbar hold 64.04 bac 63.71 for s.bias T 63.50 t2 63.20

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, but @ top of 60 bal, with bof in play, t 71 t2 50, but for cont, exp hold / bof 71 and bac 64.04

15min – Short TR, for cont, exp hold 86-96 and bac 71

Short Hypo – if price hold 86-96 then shorts t 71; bac 71 t2 56-50 bac 50 t 43 bac 43 t 36-30 (watch for bof)

Neutral Hypo – if price bof 71 or 56-44 then longs t (71) t 85-96, holds 85-96 then shorts t 71

Long Hypo – if price bac 04 then longs t 20-26 (watch for bof)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.04 For long trades bac 63.30 till 62.80

19th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Av Earn 1035 Ger Bund Auc 1330 US Build Permits
1345 US Williams 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – Up day with strong up close, d.t1 63.90 then bac 96 t2 64.86

General Bias SC = +1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 56-42 bac 96

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 51-42 bac 85

Neutral Hypo – if price holds 80 or 90/96 (bof then shorts t 77 t2 50-42, it price holds 50-44 then longs t 77 t2 90-96

Long Hypo – if price bac 96 then longs t 20-26 bac 266 (watch for bof) t 38

Shorts Hypo – if price bac 44 t 30 t2 15 bac t 00-95

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 96 For long trades bac 62.81

17th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ CPI 1330 US Empire State 1415 US Ind Prod

Stats

DATR 0.72-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – Down day at d.bz at the 2sd extreme of bal in the brexit range. Range low at 62.56

General Bias SC = +1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, in bal, for m/t direction bac hi at 96 or lo at 63.15

15min – Short TR, for cont, exp to hold 47-56 and bac 15

Short Hypo – if price holds 37-47 then shorts t 19 t2 15 bac 15 t 04 (watch for bof) bac 04 t 90 t2 80-70 bac 70 t 56 (watchf or bof) bac 56 t25 t2 00-90 (gap fill/support)

Neutral Hypo – if price holds/bof 15/04 then longs t 30 t2 40 t3 47-55; if price / bof 47-56 then shorts 7 40 t2 30

Long Hypo – if price bac 56 then longs t 60 t2 60 t78 85-96

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 96 For long trades 63.04