13th June – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th June – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 SP CPI 0930 UK CPI 1000 GE ZEW
1330 US PPI

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day – Range day with up close

Big Picture

60m – UP TR, hold 64.74 bac 65.18 for cont (poss bal 65.18 – 64.51)

10m – Neutral, bac 65.26-64.97

Context Play

1. Cont Up

Long: bac 65.26 t 35-45 bac t 66-73 bac 83-00

2. Balance

Short: BOF / hold 65.20-26 t1 00 t2 64.90-86

Long: Bof / hold 80-74 t 00

3. Dwn

Short: bac 74 t 65 mt 57-50

12th June – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th June – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News
 

1400 FR AUC

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day - Range day with weak down close

Big Picture

60m - UP TR, hold 64.74 bac 65.18 for cont (poss bal 65.18 - 64.51)

10m - Neutral, bac 65.10 - 64.74 for dir

Context Play

1. Cont Up

Long: bac 65.10 t 65.18-27 bac 18 t 35-45 bac 45 MT 66-73

2. Balance

Short: BOF / hold 65.10 t 64.90 mt 82.74

Long: hold/bof 79-74 t 90 mt 00-10

3. Dwn

Short: bac 79/74 t 63 MT 57-50

24th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE CONS CLIM 0930 ECB SPK 1035 GE AUC
1345 EZ DRAGHI 1500 US HOME SALES 1530 US CRUDE
1900 US FOMC

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day – RANGE DAY WITH DOWN CLOSE

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, hold 60.99 and bac 60.47

10m – Down TR, for cont, hold 60.90-99 and bac 70.72 then 60.59

Context Play

1. Balance

Short: hold/bof 90-99 t 80-75

Long: hold/bof 68-59(54) t 80-85

2. Down

Short: bac 60.59 t 47 bac t 38 t2 28-17

3. Up

Long: bac 60.99 t 09 t2 17 t3 25

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE / EZ PMI 0900 UK PMI 1000 EZ RETAIL
1130/1200 EZ SPKERS 1330 US INIT JOBS 1500 US FACT ORD

Previous Day – ID X 3 – HI @ 62.15 LO @ 61.02

Big Picture

60m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

10m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

Context Play

1. Balance – Break down

Short – bac 61.45 t 61.34-26 bac 26 t 61.12 t2 61.02 bac 60.85-64 (watch for bof @02)

2. Balance

Longs – hold / bof 61.25 t 61.45

Shorts – hold/bof 62.15 t 61.94

3. Balance – Break up

Longs – bac 62.15 t 61.24/38 bac 38 t 62.50

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE/EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ UNEMPLOY

Previous Day – Inside day with weak down close

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, HL at 61.26, for t/c to Up, hold 61.26 and bac 62.15

10m – Up, hold 61.48-61.26 and bac of 61.85 (HL at 61.60 ???)

Context Play

1.Up

Longs hold 61.60 t 61.73 t 61.85 bac t62.03 t 62.15 bac 62.30-38.(Watch for bof at 62.15)

2. Balance

Shorts: Hold 61.85 bac 61.73 bac 61.64 t 48 bac 48 t 36-26

Longs: Hold 48 or 36-26 t 61.73

3. Down

Shorts: bac 61.26 t 61.02 (watch for bof) bac t 84-77


24th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

FR ELECTION 0900 GE IFO

Previous week – Range week with strong down close, at channel top and bal va extreme, bac of 62.50 t 61.54 t2 60.94 t3 60.18

Previous Day – Range day with strong down close, tst first time back to d.bz 62.68-02, mode rot down on daily.

Big Picture

60m – Down, for cont, hold 84-96 bac 62.49

10m – Neutral, for direction bac 96 or 49

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts: hold 84-96 t 71 t2 60-49

Longs: hold/bof 49 t 71 t2 84-96

2. Breakdown

Shorts: hold 60-71 bac 49 t 38 (poc) bac 38

Longs: hold 38 T 50 t2 60

Shorts: bac 38 t 19-00 (watch for bof) bac 00 t 61.77-64

3. Breakup

Longs: bac 94 hold 90-80 on retest T 08 t2 16-26 bac 26 t 34-44


Weekly Trading Review – Stress Free Trading

Weekly Trading Review – Stress Free Trading

Weekly Trading Review – 17-21 April 2017

weekly trading review

Summary of Performance

An okay week, good quality trades whilst overall an under performance, this was effected by a shorter week with the bank holiday and a dull Friday with lack of triggers.

I am going to be moving away from my posting of the weekly review to monthly review.

I am going to be still doing a weekly review but my trading has got to a level where there is not much to say regarding each week, and some of the initiatives I am taking need more time to play out before deciding that they work or not.

But I am will be replacing the weekly review with article on aspects of my trading and current thinking, along with various context / trade reviews.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

My focus and playing the context, and not letting my emotions or profit and loss control my trading decisions.

I still make mistakes, I took one revenge trade, which was a good setup with positive expectancy, but was against my context play and not in my plan.

I am still learning when to apply scaling in and when not to use it.

As I am good at picking levels, and had problems getting filled in the past.

It makes no sense to scale in to these levels, as it just ends up with me in the trade in a part of a position. The only exception to this is when I end up getting in with a signal when I have a no fill on the blind order, as there is still potential for the original order to get filled.

In summary, my scaling rules, say I should apply scaling in only at levels with a couple of potential entry points that are not automatic blind levels.

Last week, I was mulling over how to do my journaling. As I moved to a system where I was not tracking my profit and loss on a daily bias, but this lead to an increased workload when journaling the trades at the end of the week, rather on a daily bias.

Of course, the answer came to me, as soon as I posted the review. I will carry on journaling intraday as this is the most efficient way to keep the journal up to date, except that I leave the exit price and result blank and then I fill this in at the end of the week.

This way the journal is kept up to date efficiently but I am unable to see how my profit and loss is doing.

Though one has to be a fool not to know where one roughly is, just from the pattern of winning and losing, but I have found that not knowing the exact P/L for the day helps reduce the pressure to trade ones P/L.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

We had a trend day in the Bund this week.

My plan for trend days, is to keep taking my signals until it becomes clear that a trend day is in progress, then move to taking signals at only the bigger picture levels.

How I spot Trend days.

1) Does not respect good levels.

2) Small pullbacks, as price does not get back to entries to go with the current flow or any fades have very small MFE.

3) A lot of double traps. Trapping traders only to trap the traders playing against the original traders, fuelling the next leg lower. Especially when the original trapped traders are front running a good level which then gets completely violated.

4) One time framing on my 10min chart.

It is important that I keep taking my signals as per my process, I do not want to get in the habit of picking and choosing which signals to take.

Moving to the bigger picture levels, means that when I do take the signals I am trading in the right area, but my stats show that overall this still mean that I can suffer a string of losers on these days.

I have tweaked my process, to the following

That when I have a trend day that fits my criteria and I move to the bigger picture levels then all fades will be smaller size allowing for slightly bigger stop (to give the trades a chance to work) and reduced risk until the following criteria is met

1) The LTF has a change of character. This can be a standard deviation pullback rotation, break of opposing structure on the LTF, which has held or not even been tested on the previous with trend rotations.

2)The one time framing stops.

I then move back to normal size for fades.

The above criteria does not mean that there will not be an extension of the trend day, just that the market is now more 2 way with buyer and sellers involved.

I am also studying on these days if I can identify how to use the double traps to get in with the trend.

As the biggest problem with the double traps is working out where the stop should go as the nearest structure is not particular close and what sort of target I should have, as these happen on trend days at decent levels.

In summary, the double traps mean going with the momentum, into areas where I would normally would be fading, if it was not a trend day.

As trend days are the occasionally days, it is important to not nerf my current system for the rest of the time with trying to optimise it to include these double traps.

My current process is to reduce risk or exit when I see a double trap developing which works well and could well be the best way to continue to handle these without nerfing my system.

It is worth investigating to see where this take me.

21st April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 FR PMI 0830 EZ PMI 0900 EZ PMI
0930 UK RETAIL SALES 1500 US HOME SALES

Previous Day – Down day with down close, tst first time back to d.bz 62.68-02, mode rot down.

Big Picture

60m – Down, for cont, hold 84-96 bac 62.50

10m – Neutral, for direction bac 96 or 52

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts; hold 84-96 t 74 t2 69 t3 60-52

Longs: hold/bof 60-52 t 70 t2 84-96

2.Up

Longs: bac 96 t 16-20 bac 20 t 34-44

Shorts 34-44 t 96-88

3. Cont Down

Shorts: bac 50 t 38-25 bac 25 t 18-00

Longs: hold 38-23 t 52 -80

19th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ CPI 1035 GE AUC 1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – UP DAY WITH UP CLOSE @ D.SZ .02 -64.40 D.ROT 2SD+

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, hold 63.49-63.34 and bac 64.02 t 64.20-40

10m – Up TR, bac of bal 63.83-63.34 for cont hold 75-67 (va) and bac 64.02 t 64.20

Context Play

1. 60min Up TR cont

Longs hold/bof 83 t 64.02 bac 64.20 t2 64.30-40 (watch for bof)

Shorts 64.20-40 t 64.02

2. Pb to Balance and cont up

Longs: hold 75-65 on retest (rrt), t 64.02 t 2 64.21-40

3. Back into Prev Bal VA

Shorts: bac 67 t 63.49-44 t2 40-34

12th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 SP CPI 0930 UK UNEM/CARNEY 1035 GE AUC
1330 US EX/IM 1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – Neutral Range Day

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, for cont, hold 00-84 and bac 63.39

10m – Up TR, for cont, hold 11-05 and bac 63.39

Context Play

1. Up Tr cont

Longs: hold 63.10-05 t 63.30-39 bac 39 t 63.51 bac 52 t 58 tt2 68-72 bac t64.02 bac 02 t 64.21-40

2. Balance

Short: hold / bof 63.30-39 t 18 bac t 10/06 bac 08 t 97-85

Longs: hold / bof 97.85 t 06 t2 19-30

3. T/C to down

Shorts: bac 62.83 t 59-50 bac 50 t 62.38 t2 25-18