22nd May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

22nd May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

EZ EUROGROUP TBA 1500 US FED SPKERS

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day – ID HI@ 61.55 L @ 61.17 MO.BAR HI @ 62.02 L 61.10

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, Pbip, tested 60bz, needs to bac 55 and then bac 62.02, but deep pullback indicates possible balance 62.02 to 61.10

10m – Down TR, for cont hold 61.36-46 and bac 61.17 and 61.10

Context Play

1. Balance

Short: hold / bof 61.55 t 61.30 t2 61.17

Longs: hold / bof 61.17-10 t 61.30 t 61.45

2. Down

Shorts: hold 61.36-40 bac 61.17 t 61.10 bac 61.10 t 60.99-87

Longs: hold 61.99-87 t 61.17

3. Up

Long: bac of 55 t 67 bac 67 t 84

16th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 IT GDP 0930 UK CPI 1000 EZ ZEW
1330 US BUILD 1415 US IND PROD

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day – ID HI @ 60.99 AND LO @ 60.41

Big Picture

60m – Neutral TR, possible balance 61.00 – 60.00 BAC 60-98 OR 60.00 for dir

10m – Down TR, at bal mid so possible chop, for cont hold 68-76 and bac 60.46

Context Play

1. 10m TR CONT

Short: hold 68-76 T 60.46-41 (watch for id.bof) bac 41 t 28 t2 23-12

Longs: hold 23-12 or bof of 00 then longs t 41-50

2. Balance

Long: bof of 41 t 60 t2 68-76

Shorts: hold / bof 80-89 t 60-50

3. Up

Long: Bac 89 t 98 (watch for bof) bac 98 t 17

15th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

15th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 IT CPI 1245 ECB PRATT 1330 US EMP STATE

STATS

DBIAS Y.HI VAH POC Y.MID
VAL Y.LO

Previous Day – BOF OF 60.11 AND BULL DAY WITH STRONG UP CLOSE, BAC 61.00 T 6.146 T2 61.73-62.00

Big Picture

60m – Neutral TR, possible balance 61.00 – 60.00, for T/C to up, hold 60.60-50 and bac 61.00

10m – Up TR, but in VA extreme of poss bal. for cont, hold 76-65 bac 60.98 and 61.17 (beware of bull trap at 61.08-17)

Context Play

1. TR CONT

Longs: hold 60.83 or 60.74-65 T 98 bac 98 t 08-17 bac 17 t 26 bac 28 t 45 t2 63-73

2. TR PB

Shorts: hold/ bof 61.00-17 t 83 bac 83 t 76-65

Longs: hold /bof 75-65 t 98 bac 98 same T as TR cont

3. BAL

Shorts bac 65 and hold 80 on RRT T 56-50 bac 50 t 38 bac 38 t 28-20

Longs hold/bof 56-50 T 80

11th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

11th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 EZ SPKER 0900 EZ ECB 0930 UK MAN PROD
1000 EZ ECON 1200 UK IR 1330 US PPI

Previous Day – RANGE DAY WITH STRONG DOWN CLOSE T 60.80 TSTED, SO BAC OF 60.11 T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.81060.98 and bac 60.11

10m – Down TR, looking for LH, 52-60 (?) and bac 60.22 then 60.11

Context Play

1. TR CONT

Shorts: hold 52-60 t 40 t2 25-18 bac 18 t11 (watch for bof) bac 11 t00 t2 89-72 t 59.48

2. Balance

Longs: hold 25-11 or bof 11 then longs t 54

Shorts: hold 67-83 then shorts t 54

10th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 GE AUC 1300 EZ DRAGHI 1330 US EX/IM
1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – Range day with neutral down close with bof of 60.14 (DB) hi at 60.48 upside t 60.80-61.00 Downside BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.44-54 bac 60.11 for cont

10m – Neutral, in blance 60.44-60.11 bac for dir poss bull trap @ 44-54

Context Play

1. BU

Longs: bac 44 hold 38.-25 on rrt t 54 bac 67 t 77-82 t2 88-98 watch for bof

2. Balance

Shorts hold bof 44-54 t 38 t2 25

Longs hold/bof 20-11 t 36

3. BD

Shorts bac 14 gold 18 on rrt t 00 t2 89-72 bac 73 t 59-48

9th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

9th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE IND PROD 1400 US FOMC SPK 1500 US JOLTS

Previous Day – Range day with neutral up close BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 60.81-61.00 bac 60.25 then 14

10m – Down TR, in LTF bal, hold 60.77 -60.88 and bac 60.38 for cont

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Short: hold/bof 60.57 bac 60.37 t 60.25-14 (watch for bof) bac t 89-73 bac t 59.50

2. Balance / PB

Longs: hold / bof 60.37-25 and bac 56 t 60.67 t2 77-88

Shorts: hold 60.77-88 t 67 t2 56 t3 37

8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE FACTORY 1335 US FOMC SPKRS FR ELECTION

Previous Day – BEAR DAY WITH STRONG DOWN CLOSE BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – hold 60.97-61.15 bac 60.37 then 60.14 for cont

10m – hold 60.69-60.77 bac 60.37

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Short: hold/bof 60.57 bac 60.37 t 60.25-14 (watch for bof) bac t 89-73 bac t 59.50

2. Balance / PB

Longs: hold / bof 60.37-25 bac 56 t 60.69-60.77

Shorts: hold 60.69-.77 t 56 t 37

3. 60min PB

BAC of 77 then longs t88 t2 97-17

Shorts: messy area 97-17 t 80

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 137k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 46k.

Is there a trend in the data?

The large miss has put a dent in the trend and overall flat for the last six months.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Not applicable but a number less than 210 could mean a change in trend in these numbers.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 185k

Between 160k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

160k to 135k would be a miss. 210k to 245k would be a beat.

Below 135k would be a big miss and above 245k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 30 NFPs’ (Time 1330 to 1500 BST)

In 22 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 7 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

30

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


62.15

HI

61.73-94

SZ

61.48

LVN

61.26-20

POC/SESS HI

CP
60.74

SESS LO

60.43-37

CONF

60.23-14

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE / EZ PMI 0900 UK PMI 1000 EZ RETAIL
1130/1200 EZ SPKERS 1330 US INIT JOBS 1500 US FACT ORD

Previous Day – ID X 3 – HI @ 62.15 LO @ 61.02

Big Picture

60m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

10m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

Context Play

1. Balance – Break down

Short – bac 61.45 t 61.34-26 bac 26 t 61.12 t2 61.02 bac 60.85-64 (watch for bof @02)

2. Balance

Longs – hold / bof 61.25 t 61.45

Shorts – hold/bof 62.15 t 61.94

3. Balance – Break up

Longs – bac 62.15 t 61.24/38 bac 38 t 62.50

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE/EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ UNEMPLOY

Previous Day – Inside day with weak down close

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, HL at 61.26, for t/c to Up, hold 61.26 and bac 62.15

10m – Up, hold 61.48-61.26 and bac of 61.85 (HL at 61.60 ???)

Context Play

1.Up

Longs hold 61.60 t 61.73 t 61.85 bac t62.03 t 62.15 bac 62.30-38.(Watch for bof at 62.15)

2. Balance

Shorts: Hold 61.85 bac 61.73 bac 61.64 t 48 bac 48 t 36-26

Longs: Hold 48 or 36-26 t 61.73

3. Down

Shorts: bac 61.26 t 61.02 (watch for bof) bac t 84-77