This is my US NFP Trade review using order flow. NFP came out at 215K
Which fitted the Hypo below. Initial Move is IM and Secondary Move is SM. SOC is Scene of the Crime, the origin price when news came out.
Therefore, I was expecting a rot down and pull back to 50% and then a rot down with a failure to continue and a return to the scene of the crime. With a small beat I was not expecting that we would test the 15-04, but was looking at 163.24 the low of the day before returning to the scene of the crime.
Overall Summary of Trade Review
Not flexible enough to release that the failure of the stall at 50% of the Initial Move, would lead to a possible test of the Scene of the crime. Gut instinct was right, but I followed my plan. Took the retest, scaled out just before the SOC and took the second part off as I thought we could end up in balance between the 45 and 56 for a bit which is common. But there was no evidence of this and more a reason just to bank the scalp.
Good focus for the day. Had a good trade in Stoxx, but missed the best trade in Bund by being at weekly VAH rather than Friday’s hi, got into the trade of a scalp level at 32 entry 36, but only scalped instead of holding for the retest of session hi.
Focus was pretty crap for a bit when price was chopping around and Eurostoxx was in a narrow range.
Read was good in Eurostoxx and Bund was a bit harder, on the push thru 42, my exp was for lower prices but on the strong rot up to test 53, that had me been on the side lines direction wise, but no bac of 53 to confirm, left me back to short bias but without taking the previous planned trade.
More knackered now than before I took 5 days off. Possible too much Strongbow and Champs.
Frustrating day, loads of no fills but a good read and good patience. At the moment I am front running by 1 tick for against the bias entries and 2 ticks for the bias entries but still getting no fills.
Though 2 trades in the Eurostox made up for it. Seems to be a lot easier to get filled in that market.
Just to show that I am placing these trades and not using hindsight here. Here is a copy of some of the cancelled trades from my position book.
Focus good, but hard to read market this morning with choppy price action, better this afternoon with push down.
I have been monitoring my second market which had a few good setups today, so when I start trading the second market , it will be a good idea to concentrate on the market that is giving me the best setups and reacting well to my system.
On the push down, it was a shame there was not decent pullback till it hit the 60.bz limiting my options for shorts.