Weekend Reading – Macro 26-37 March

Weekend Reading – Macro 26-37 March

This is a collection of articles I have read over the weekend to get a feel for the overall macro conditions / themes for the next week.

Marc to Market: Greenback Finds Better Traction

The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week. After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction. It was helped by widening interest rate differentials. Regional F
ed manufacturing surveys for March suggest the quarter is ending on a firm note. With new orders rising, it is reasonable to expect the momentum to carry into Q2.

Read more…

Marc to Market: Is that Buzzing Sound Helicopter Money?

Helicopter money is the rage. Central banks are talking about it. Economists are debating it. The media is rife with coverage. While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means

Read more at marctomarket.com

Marc to Market: ECB, Corporate Bonds, and Credibility

The euro’s rallied shortly after the ECB announced numerous monetary measures that in their totality were more than expected. Many saw this as proof that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness, and central banks have lost credibility.

Read more at marctomarket.com

Marc to Market: When Doves Cry: Imprudently Cautious

Yellen acknowledged that the Fed’s assessment of the US economy had not changed much from December. There is little reason it should. However, it is difficult to reconcile that with the substantial change in the forward guidance, and the halving of the rates hikes that are deemed appropriate this year.

Read more at marctomarket.com

Was that it? ~ Macro Man

Over the last 5-6 weeks risk assets, commodities, and non-dollar currencies have bathed in the warm glow of an accommodative Fed that’s been more than willing to play it cool.

Was that it? While calling tops may not go as spectacularly wrong as trying to pick bottoms, kevlar glove-style, it can on occasion be no less painful. Call it death by a thousand cuts rather than a decapitation- either way there is sufficient danger that it is difficult to call a definitive extreme with anything more than temerity. (The exception, of course, is if you’re in the business of being notable rather than profitable, in which case 100% confidence is a prerequisite and accuracy is of secondary if not tertiary importance.)

Read more at macro-man.blogspot.co.uk

Notes From Underground: Bored of the Fed | Notes From Underground

Currently, the financial markets are in rally mode as repressed savings seek some measure of return while PENSIONS, SAVERS and INSURANCE COMPANIES have to seek shelter from the game of negative interest rates. This experiment is commented on all day long and I am bored, terribly bored as the continued praise heaped on the promoters of the ever-present counter factual rubbish. Today, San Francisco Fed President John Williams was paraded out to reignite the possibility of a Fed rate hiked in April or June as it seems the headwinds that prompted Yellen’s  dovish press conference last week have abated. Williams is not even a voter so why should we care what he has to say? It’s just more nonsense. The rumors continue to swirl that the G-20 crafted some type of agreement to prevent the dollar from rallying, and stopped other nations from attempting to manufacture the depreciation of their currencies in a contrived manipulation to gain a competitive trade advantage. Again, I don’t believe this story and will wait to see how it plays out during the coming month.

Read more at yragharris.com

 

 

 

Federal Reserve Rate Hike-What now?

Federal Reserve Rate Hike-What now?

Another good article on the macro behind the Federal Reserve rate hike. Definitely worth reading.

So the Fed decision, statement, and commentary were largely as Macro Man expected, given the “shadow statement” presented here a couple of days ago. Sure, there were some differences- they used “gradual” instead of “cautious”, and the bit about monitoring financial markets closely and being prepared to act was […]

Federal Reserve Rate Hike

 

Federal Reserve Rate Hike – We have Lift-Off

Federal Reserve Rate Hike – We have Lift-Off

The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hike. The dot plot reflects expectations for four rate hikes in 2016. There were no dissents. This is important. It underscores the decisiveness of the decision. There have been three voting Fed members that were thought to be likely dissents. The Fed will […]

Another great article by Marc Chandler explaining the details behind the first Federal Reserve rate hike for many years. Well worth a read.

The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

6M POST

Given that this is quite possibly the most anticipated rate hike in human history, there is little that Macro Man wishes to add to the veritable Everest of previews, thought pieces, moans, and cheers that have inundated anyone with even a cursory interest in economics or markets over the past days, weeks, and months.

Instead, he will leave you with some data to put the current situation, and perhaps the future, into context.

Curated from The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

I find that Macro Mans’ commentary always helpful in how the macro relates to the actual markets