8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th May – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE FACTORY 1335 US FOMC SPKRS FR ELECTION

Previous Day – BEAR DAY WITH STRONG DOWN CLOSE BP.T 59.87-59.57 (BZ 59.87-58.75)

Big Picture

60m – hold 60.97-61.15 bac 60.37 then 60.14 for cont

10m – hold 60.69-60.77 bac 60.37

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Short: hold/bof 60.57 bac 60.37 t 60.25-14 (watch for bof) bac t 89-73 bac t 59.50

2. Balance / PB

Longs: hold / bof 60.37-25 bac 56 t 60.69-60.77

Shorts: hold 60.69-.77 t 56 t 37

3. 60min PB

BAC of 77 then longs t88 t2 97-17

Shorts: messy area 97-17 t 80

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 137k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 46k.

Is there a trend in the data?

The large miss has put a dent in the trend and overall flat for the last six months.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Not applicable but a number less than 210 could mean a change in trend in these numbers.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 185k

Between 160k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

160k to 135k would be a miss. 210k to 245k would be a beat.

Below 135k would be a big miss and above 245k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 30 NFPs’ (Time 1330 to 1500 BST)

In 22 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 7 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

30

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


62.15

HI

61.73-94

SZ

61.48

LVN

61.26-20

POC/SESS HI

CP
60.74

SESS LO

60.43-37

CONF

60.23-14

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

4thMay – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE / EZ PMI 0900 UK PMI 1000 EZ RETAIL
1130/1200 EZ SPKERS 1330 US INIT JOBS 1500 US FACT ORD

Previous Day – ID X 3 – HI @ 62.15 LO @ 61.02

Big Picture

60m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

10m – Neutral Bal 61.94 – 61.45 bac for dir

Context Play

1. Balance – Break down

Short – bac 61.45 t 61.34-26 bac 26 t 61.12 t2 61.02 bac 60.85-64 (watch for bof @02)

2. Balance

Longs – hold / bof 61.25 t 61.45

Shorts – hold/bof 62.15 t 61.94

3. Balance – Break up

Longs – bac 62.15 t 61.24/38 bac 38 t 62.50

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

2nd May 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855/0900 GE/EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ UNEMPLOY

Previous Day – Inside day with weak down close

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, HL at 61.26, for t/c to Up, hold 61.26 and bac 62.15

10m – Up, hold 61.48-61.26 and bac of 61.85 (HL at 61.60 ???)

Context Play

1.Up

Longs hold 61.60 t 61.73 t 61.85 bac t62.03 t 62.15 bac 62.30-38.(Watch for bof at 62.15)

2. Balance

Shorts: Hold 61.85 bac 61.73 bac 61.64 t 48 bac 48 t 36-26

Longs: Hold 48 or 36-26 t 61.73

3. Down

Shorts: bac 61.26 t 61.02 (watch for bof) bac t 84-77