Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions
What is the Range and 1 SD?
Number range for last 6 months is 137k
1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 46k.
Is there a trend in the data?
The large miss has put a dent in the trend and overall flat for the last six months.
What number would constitute a change in the trend?
Not applicable but a number less than 210 could mean a change in trend in these numbers.
What would be a big beat/miss?
Exp is for 185k
Between 160k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.
160k to 135k would be a miss. 210k to 245k would be a beat.
Below 135k would be a big miss and above 245k would be a big beat.
Notes – Out of the Last 30 NFPs’ (Time 1330 to 1500 BST)
In 22 cases, the low was made by 1345
In 7 cases, the high was made by 1345
What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks
Last 12 NFP
What is the Daily / 240 Structure
Hypo NFP EXP = 180K
Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)
Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM
If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%
If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%
BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin
BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level
Join on SM 50% T next level
If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%