US Non-Farm Payrolls – May 5th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 137k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 46k.

Is there a trend in the data?

The large miss has put a dent in the trend and overall flat for the last six months.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Not applicable but a number less than 210 could mean a change in trend in these numbers.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 185k

Between 160k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

160k to 135k would be a miss. 210k to 245k would be a beat.

Below 135k would be a big miss and above 245k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 30 NFPs’ (Time 1330 to 1500 BST)

In 22 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 7 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

30

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


62.15

HI

61.73-94

SZ

61.48

LVN

61.26-20

POC/SESS HI

CP
60.74

SESS LO

60.43-37

CONF

60.23-14

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

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