Weekly Trading Review – The Game

Weekly Trading Review – The Game

Weekly Trading Review – 10-14 April 2017

Summary of Performance

Overall a flat week, had a few problems with the auto triggers and the systematic side of the trading.

The trades where overall grade A, in terms of process and entry. Not a lot of follow through on the entries.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Followed my process, incorporated a new process that tells me when I should dump or reduce risk on trade based on a conflicted signal.

This worked well, but need to remain focused after this as sometimes that the conflicted signal becomes a solid signal again which I then can re-entry or increase risk once again.

As some of the areas of interest can be quite wide, I have done a study on my winning trades and also the MFE and MAE of the last 400 signals of the winning trades.

I have focused on the MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion), basically how far a winning trade goes off side. This has enable me to come up with some guidelines on how to scale in to trade.

Normally when I get a signal on the edge of a wide zone, and then typically, sit down through a draw down period in that trade, or wait for a secondary signal deeper in the zone to get my position on.

I prefer to wait for the secondary signal, but these guidelines will enable me to scale in whilst keeping my risk under control, and also enable me to at least get some of the position on and not miss out on the signal.

Of course the smaller levels will not need this approach as the risk is easier defined and I either enter blind on a test or on signal as long as my R:R to the next area is 1.5.

Also I find that only checking my P/L at the weekends rather than at the end of the day, helping immensely with the amount of emotion involved with individual trades, and more importantly my response to it.

Since Jeffageddon, this side of my trading has improved immensely. I am not going to pretend that this is still not a work in progress but I am trading better on this side.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Started to get a few doubts with my signals during the week, something seemed off. They seemed to be not triggering when they should and triggered when they should not.

At first I thought it was just because of the week leading up to Easter. On closer inspection, the triggers where hitting the criteria but not working. Turns out that when I updated the platform, the triggers had reverted to an much earlier version. So I have updated my process to check these triggers are using the latest version if I update or revert to a restore point on RT Investor.

This is not a criticism of RT Investor, I end up going to a restore point quite regular due to my ability to poorly code a trading system or custom study which ends up in a circular reference point which causes RT to spit the dummy.

I am very much, learning on the job when it comes to RTL language, definitely not my strong point but I am getting better.

But the plus side of using the auto triggers, I have learnt more about when to employ them, and the MAE study has also given me a better understanding of when to use the aggressively and conservatively.

One project, I am working on this weekend is my tracking of statistics of my trades.

Not looking at the P/L makes it difficult to keep my trade journal up to date.

As one does not have to be brain of Britain, to know ones P/L , when entering the trades into the journal. I used to enter each trade after exit, I then moved to, entering at the end of the day.

But as I am now only looking at the end of the week, this makes keeping the journal up to date a major pain.

As entering the relevant information takes a lot longer than before, as I have to look up all the entries for the journal, before when I was doing it day to day, I knew all the information from memory.

I need to work on how to streamline this journaling, so that it does not become a major task.

Secondly, the move to a systematic approach with a focus on context means that my setup based journal is not really tracking the correct performance metrics. I need to re prioritise what information I need to track and then re jig the journal to reflect that.

13th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE CPI 0745 FR CPI 1330 US PPI
1500 US MICH CONS EXP

Previous Day – Neutral Range Day. POSS BOF OF BAL AT 63.39

Big Picture

60m – Neutral/Up. Bal with possible bof trap at 63.9

10m – Up TR, for cont hold 27-19 bac 51

Context Play

1. BOF/Trap

Shorts: holf/bof 46-51 and then bac 19 t 08-98 t2 87-83 bac 83 t 73 t2 59-50 t3 38-25

2. Balance – BU

Long: hold 27-17 t 46-51 bac 51 bac 72 t3 89 t4 64.02 bac 64.21-40

3. Balance

Long: bof 83 t 08-17

12th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 SP CPI 0930 UK UNEM/CARNEY 1035 GE AUC
1330 US EX/IM 1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – Neutral Range Day

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, for cont, hold 00-84 and bac 63.39

10m – Up TR, for cont, hold 11-05 and bac 63.39

Context Play

1. Up Tr cont

Longs: hold 63.10-05 t 63.30-39 bac 39 t 63.51 bac 52 t 58 tt2 68-72 bac t64.02 bac 02 t 64.21-40

2. Balance

Short: hold / bof 63.30-39 t 18 bac t 10/06 bac 08 t 97-85

Longs: hold / bof 97.85 t 06 t2 19-30

3. T/C to down

Shorts: bac 62.83 t 59-50 bac 50 t 62.38 t2 25-18

11th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

11th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK CPI 1000 GE ZEW 1500 US JOLTS

Previous Day – Bull Up day with strong close, but with bof of 63.19. oe at 2sd rot daily

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, for cont, hold 00-84 and bac 63.30

10m – Up TR, for cont hold 11-05 and bac 63.30

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts: hold/bof 63.19-30 t 63.00 t2 90-85 bac 85 t 73

Longs: hold 73-59 t 90 t2 00

2. Cont Up Trend

Longs: hold 00-85 t 63.19, bac 19 t 30 bac 30 t 39 t2 51 t3 59-64 t4 68-72

3. T/C to down

Shorts: bac 62.59 t 62.50 bac 50 t 42-33


10th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 FR AUC 1400 EZ CONST

Previous Day – Range day with strong down close, into d.sz (62.70-63.19)and possible rejection. (bac 62.550 and 62.15 for t 61.50)

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, Hold 62.42-62.32 and bac 62.04 for cont. (Pbip)

10m -Down Tr, hold 62.80-90 bac 62.50 for cont

Context Play

1. Balance

Longs: hold/bof (62.50) 62.42-32 t 60-68 bac 72 t 62.85

Shorts: Hold / bof 62.85-63.04 t 60 t 42-32

2. Cont Up Trend

Longs: hold 62.60-50 t 62.80-90 bac 85 t 92.96-05 bac 05 t 63.19 bac 19 t62.38 t2 63.40-51

3. T/C to down

Shorts: bac 62.32 t 62.19-13 bac t 62.02 bac 62.02 t 67.77 t 61.50

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Apr 7th

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Apr 7th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 84k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 33k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Slight uptrend continuing. A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.

An above average figure of 200k would not affect the trend.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 180k

Between 150k to 230k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

150k to 120k would be a miss. 230k to 260k would be a beat.

Below 120k would be a big miss and above 260k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 29 NFPs’

In 21 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

37

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


63.68-78

SZ

63.19

HI

62.86

WPOC

CP
62.38-25

BZ

62.02

LO

61.82-64

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

6th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

6th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GE FACT 0800 EZ DRAGHI 0830 EZ PRAET
0950 SP AUC 1230 EZ MINS 1245 EZ CONST
1330 US INITIAL JOBS 1430 US FOMC WILLIAMS

1ST WEEK OF 2ND QUARTER

Previous Day – Up range day with neutral close

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, HL @ mode rot down, but still overstretched on daily and at daily sz. For cont hold 20-02 bac 62.69 (watch for possible second rej in d.sz)

10m – Up TR, hold 40-30 bac 62.72

Context Play

1. Up to POC and rejection

Shorts: Hold 62.86 t 62.72-60 bac 60, T 62.40

2. Up Trend PB

Longs; Hold 62.45-30 bac 72 t 86 bac 86 t 01 bac 01 t 19 (watch for bof) bac 19 t 40 t2 52 t3 59-72

3. Balance

Shorts: Hold /bof 64-72 t 45-40 t2 35, bac 30 t 19-12

5th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

5th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0815 SP PMI 0845-0900 EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI
1035 GE AUC 1315 US ADP 1500 US ISM PMI

1ST WEEK OF 2ND QUARTER

Previous Day – Up day with neutral close

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, hold 62.32-20 bac 62.72 for cont

10m – Down Tr, hold 62.56062 bac 62.33 (poss bal forming)

Context Play

1. Balance

Long: Hold/bof 62.33-20 t 62.50 t2 56-62 t3 64-72

Short: Hold / bof 62.64-72 t 50 t2 33-20

2. Up Trend PB

Shorts: Hold 62-50-62 and/or bac 62.29 t 62.20-16 bac t 05 bac 05 t 61.96 t2 61.79-64

3. Cont of Up Tr

Long: bac 62.72 t 62.86-00 bac 00 t 13-22

Shorts: hold 62.86-00 t 72

4th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

4th April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ RETAIL 1330 US TB
1430 EZ DRAGHI 1500 US FACTORY 1500 EZ LIIKANEN

1ST WEEK OF 2ND QUARTER

Previous Day – ERC up day with strong bull close m.bar 50% at 61.77

Big Picture

60m – Up Tr – hold 61.78-61.64 bac 62.24 for cont

10m Neutral (up) bac 62.18/62.05 for dir

Context Play

1. Trend Cont

Long: hold/bof 62.05 bac 62.18 t 62.40-50 bac 50 t 62.69-77 t2 62.86

2. PB

Shorts bac 62.05 t 61.96 bac 96 t 84

Longs: hold 61.96 or 61.78 t 62 t2 62.18

3rd April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

3rd April 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0815 SP MANU PMI 0845-0900 VARS PMI 0930 UK PMI
1000 EZ UMEMPLOY PMI 1445 US PMIK 1500 US ISM PMI

1ST WEEK OF 2ND QUARTER

Previous Day – Inside day hi @ 61.57 lo @ 61.06

Big Picture

60m – Up Tr – hold 61.06-60.95 and bac 61.57 for cont

15m – Neutral – in balance – bac 61.57 and 61.21 for direction

Context Play

1. Balance – Break Up

Long: bac 61.57 hold 54-45 on rrt t 64 bac t 70 t2 80-89 t3 63.04 t4 62.16-24

2. Balance cont

Shorts: bof 61.57-64 t 40 t 28-21 (bof of inside)

Longs: hold 61.28-21 t 40 t2 46-57

If bac of 21 and a bof of 61.05 then longs for bof of inside day. T 61.21 bac t 61.40

3. Bal breakdown

Shorts: bac of 60.21 hold 61.21-33 on rrt t 61.08 t2 61.05-95 (watch for bof, see above) bac 05

t 80 t2 70-60