Weekly Trading Review – Stress Free Trading

Weekly Trading Review – 17-21 April 2017

weekly trading review

Summary of Performance

An okay week, good quality trades whilst overall an under performance, this was effected by a shorter week with the bank holiday and a dull Friday with lack of triggers.

I am going to be moving away from my posting of the weekly review to monthly review.

I am going to be still doing a weekly review but my trading has got to a level where there is not much to say regarding each week, and some of the initiatives I am taking need more time to play out before deciding that they work or not.

But I am will be replacing the weekly review with article on aspects of my trading and current thinking, along with various context / trade reviews.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

My focus and playing the context, and not letting my emotions or profit and loss control my trading decisions.

I still make mistakes, I took one revenge trade, which was a good setup with positive expectancy, but was against my context play and not in my plan.

I am still learning when to apply scaling in and when not to use it.

As I am good at picking levels, and had problems getting filled in the past.

It makes no sense to scale in to these levels, as it just ends up with me in the trade in a part of a position. The only exception to this is when I end up getting in with a signal when I have a no fill on the blind order, as there is still potential for the original order to get filled.

In summary, my scaling rules, say I should apply scaling in only at levels with a couple of potential entry points that are not automatic blind levels.

Last week, I was mulling over how to do my journaling. As I moved to a system where I was not tracking my profit and loss on a daily bias, but this lead to an increased workload when journaling the trades at the end of the week, rather on a daily bias.

Of course, the answer came to me, as soon as I posted the review. I will carry on journaling intraday as this is the most efficient way to keep the journal up to date, except that I leave the exit price and result blank and then I fill this in at the end of the week.

This way the journal is kept up to date efficiently but I am unable to see how my profit and loss is doing.

Though one has to be a fool not to know where one roughly is, just from the pattern of winning and losing, but I have found that not knowing the exact P/L for the day helps reduce the pressure to trade ones P/L.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

We had a trend day in the Bund this week.

My plan for trend days, is to keep taking my signals until it becomes clear that a trend day is in progress, then move to taking signals at only the bigger picture levels.

How I spot Trend days.

1) Does not respect good levels.

2) Small pullbacks, as price does not get back to entries to go with the current flow or any fades have very small MFE.

3) A lot of double traps. Trapping traders only to trap the traders playing against the original traders, fuelling the next leg lower. Especially when the original trapped traders are front running a good level which then gets completely violated.

4) One time framing on my 10min chart.

It is important that I keep taking my signals as per my process, I do not want to get in the habit of picking and choosing which signals to take.

Moving to the bigger picture levels, means that when I do take the signals I am trading in the right area, but my stats show that overall this still mean that I can suffer a string of losers on these days.

I have tweaked my process, to the following

That when I have a trend day that fits my criteria and I move to the bigger picture levels then all fades will be smaller size allowing for slightly bigger stop (to give the trades a chance to work) and reduced risk until the following criteria is met

1) The LTF has a change of character. This can be a standard deviation pullback rotation, break of opposing structure on the LTF, which has held or not even been tested on the previous with trend rotations.

2)The one time framing stops.

I then move back to normal size for fades.

The above criteria does not mean that there will not be an extension of the trend day, just that the market is now more 2 way with buyer and sellers involved.

I am also studying on these days if I can identify how to use the double traps to get in with the trend.

As the biggest problem with the double traps is working out where the stop should go as the nearest structure is not particular close and what sort of target I should have, as these happen on trend days at decent levels.

In summary, the double traps mean going with the momentum, into areas where I would normally would be fading, if it was not a trend day.

As trend days are the occasionally days, it is important to not nerf my current system for the rest of the time with trying to optimise it to include these double traps.

My current process is to reduce risk or exit when I see a double trap developing which works well and could well be the best way to continue to handle these without nerfing my system.

It is worth investigating to see where this take me.

3 thoughts on “Weekly Trading Review – Stress Free Trading

  • 22/04/2017 at 13:12
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    Nice work Adey!

    Regarding your adjustments to trend days, given that fades are going to be (by definition) counter-trend, the bounces are going to be shallow (smaller rewards) and you are now widening the stop, the risk:reward profile of such trades are going to be very mediocre – even if u are adjusting your size. Why not just NOT FADE on trend days once it is identified?

    I know the main premise is that you are now being more selective by restricting fades to the major/key levels, but even then, there is so much against the idea of fading trends. The expectancy is at best marginal and you expend a lot of mental capital and crucially, focus is being taken away from actually finding setups to get on board the trend (since u are facing the wrong way) – is it even worth it to fade even at key levels?

    Just something to think about and all the best anyway!

    Reply
    • 22/04/2017 at 15:09
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      Hi Dion,

      It is a fair point and the only reason I am not going down that approach at the moment.

      Is that after a lot of work to become more systematic, and to reduce the human decision making. I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater by ignoring signals.

      I have found Bund has a habit of starting to look like a trend day only to fail to follow thru. My signals work well on these days. So it a balancing act.

      It might come to that, that a rule is to ignore the fades on a trend day, but first step is to reduce risk. The increase in stop is minor, and overall it is a risk reduction in size.

      But I agree, that identifying a trend day and trying to find a way in is important whilst not nerfing the system.

      It was an interesting chart you put up on twitter, as it the same problem where to put the stop on these potential aggressive breakdowns.

      The good news is that I have managed to define some rules on the double traps in the orderflow and done a quick backtest over the past 150 days, which has given me a MFE/MAE profile of the ones that work.

      Thanks for your comments and I will bear these in mind.

      Have a good one.

      Adey

      Reply
      • 22/04/2017 at 16:50
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        Ah gotcha, so you are actually betting on it NOT being a full trend day when u are taking these fades (so a reversal trade and not a counter trend trade which has a different r:r profile).. in which case I agree with your approach in not trying to nerf the system. It’s definitely a tough balance and keeping it robust is the right way to go. all the best!

        Reply

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