US Non-Farm Payrolls – Apr 7th

Historical Performance

Last year of NFP data, back adjusted for revisions

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 84k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 33k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Slight uptrend continuing. A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

A number below 150k would put this slight up trend in doubt.

An above average figure of 200k would not affect the trend.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 180k

Between 150k to 230k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

150k to 120k would be a miss. 230k to 260k would be a beat.

Below 120k would be a big miss and above 260k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 29 NFPs’

In 21 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

37

MODE

51

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


63.68-78

SZ

63.19

HI

62.86

WPOC

CP
62.38-25

BZ

62.02

LO

61.82-64

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 180K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

2 thoughts on “US Non-Farm Payrolls – Apr 7th

  • 08/04/2017 at 03:46
    Permalink

    Man, every time i come to have a look at your blog i realize the more i know the less i know. You are an inspiration to do more. I want you to know that.

    Much respect.

    Reply
    • 09/04/2017 at 17:51
      Permalink

      Hi

      Thanks mate. Just grinding it out. One mistake at a time. 🙂

      Hope you are well. Have a good week.

      Adey

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *