16th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0830 SW SNB 1000 EZ CPI 1200 UK IR
1230 US PHILLY FED 1400 US JOLTS

Previous Day – Inside Bac upside hit target of 60.40-50. ERC Upday.

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, hold 59.53-42 bac 60.45, for cont, bz at 12-00

10m – Up TR, hold 60.15 bac 60.45

Context Play

1.60m TR PB

Short hold 37-45 bac 12-06 t 94-85

Longs hold / bof 97-85 t 60.15

2. Balance

Longs hold 12-00 t 26 t2 37-45

Shorts: hold/bof 37-45 t 20

3. 60 TR ext

Long: bac 45 t 60-66 gap fill bac 66 t 82-96

15th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

15th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 FR CPI 0930 UK AVE EARN 1000 IT CPI
1030 BUND AUC 1230 US CPI 1430 US CRUDE
1800 US FOMC

Previous Day – Inside day BOF, BIAS LONG, T 89.85 T2 60.27 T3 60.40-50

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, in bal, bac 59.78/58.73 for dir

10m – Neutral, in bal, bac 59.66-46 for dir

Context Play

1. 10min Bal BU

Longs: bac 59.68 hold 66-60 on rrt t 77 y2 85 bac 85 t 92 bac 92 t 60.15-25 t3 43-50

2. 10min Bal BD

Shorts: bac 46 hold on rrt 48-56 t 40 t2 33-23

3. 60min Bal Bof

Short: bof 78 or 85 t 60-50 t2 33-23

14th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

14th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER CPI 0800 SP CPI 1000 GER ZEW
1230 US PPI

Previous Day – Inside day( lo @58.87/hi@59.68/59.85), at daily bz at 58.98-58.10 and bal poc at 58.54

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, hold 50-67 bac 87, possible bear trap at 87, and possible bal (80pb)

10m – Down TR, for cont, hold 20-30 bac 94/87

Context Play

1. TR cont

Shorts hold 20-30 t 94-87 bac 87 t 80 bac 80 t 58.54-42

2. Balance

Longs: hold/bof 84-87t 18-30

Shorts: hold /bof 59-70 t 30-18

13th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER TB 0930 UK MAN PROD EU SUMMIT
1330 US NFP

Previous Day – Down day, in prev bal area target daily bz at 58.98-58.10 and bal poc at 58.54

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, for cont, hold 59.44-77 bac 58.87 tst d.bz Friday (ftb and messy level)

10m – Down TR, for cont, hold 59.26-36 bac 56.87

Context Play

1. Balance

Shorts hold 25-36 t 59

Longs hold / bof 58.87 t 59.10

2. TR cont

Short bac 58.87 t 80 bac 80 t 58.54-42

Longs hold 58.54-42 T 58.80

Weekly Trading Review – Acceptance

Weekly Trading Review – Acceptance

Weekly Trading Review – 6th to 10th March

Summary of Performance

Overall an okay to good week.

Overall trades where Grade A average. I took the average amount of trades when compared to the typical average amount of opportunities that my system normally finds.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I was focused and followed routine / process, took nearly all the trades that fitted my process, stayed out of the trades that where borderline fit to my process.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I did not have anything that went bad during the week.

I found myself getting gun shy at the end of the week, and did not want to trade the NFP.

This was due to fear of giving profits back.

I did trade the NFP, and took the majority of trades that my system indicated. Only 1 trade that stuck out, where I know I hesitated due to FOL. I did place the order but the hesitation cost me the fill.

Why was I hesitating?

Due to fear of giving hard earned profits back. Which is understandable but not acceptable.

Why do I fear giving hard earned profits back.

I should trade my system, regardless of my state of the profit and loss. This should not have any bearing on the decision process of whether the trade fits my criteria.

But in real life after a good week, it is there in the back ground, trying to muscle in to the decision making process.

A little while I go I did this experiment. Where you are given $25 (pretend money) and over a period of 30mins, place bets on a coin tossing exercise. The coin is programmed to come up 60% heads and 40% tails.

I managed to turn the $35 into $5343 over the required period.

Interesting, I noticed that I had familiar behaviour patterns. As I went through a string of losses, I became more risk seeking. This was demonstrated by the speed I was willing to place the bet.

And as I went through a string of winners, I become more risk adverse, I was a lot slower to place bets.

This become a lot more pronounced once I had got the total balance over $2000.

I was displaying the same emotions on a fake money exercise, as I do with real money.

Which has got me thinking that maybe the problem is less to do with money and more to do with the law of large numbers.

And that whilst I understand the law of large numbers, I am not truly accepting this in my trading. Otherwise, I would not be letting these emotions effect my decision making process.

A string of losses or a string of wins should not have any bearing on the decision of whether I take the next trade.

My trading system decides whether the trade is valid or not, and this decision is independent of previous results.

Why am I struggling with accepting that variance of results is part of all trading systems?

Whilst I am improving with this aspect, it is constantly there and is a battle at the end of good weeks to stay focused and keep taking the trades.

I think that it is a lack of self confidence in myself and a lack of self-belief in my system.

Why this lack of confidence in myself and my system?

The system itself, has been worked on and improved, and I have removed many of the discretionary elements.

And I know from all the testing and the past results that it has an edge. The past results have only been marred by human operating error.

The lack of confidence in my trading system, comes from the lack of confidence in myself. This comes from past experiences and that my stats constantly show that I am the problem when it comes to execution.

I cannot change what has happened in the past, but I can change what I do in the future.

Of course, I do not expect to get rid of these emotions, but I need to be able to get myself into a position where they do not influence my decisions.

What am I currently doing to help this?

Mediating twice a day.

Trading more mindfully, taking notice of my emotions and accepting them but not focusing on them during the trade.

Using positive self-talk to replace the negative self-talk.

This has all helped me from making poor decisions that are not in my best interest but has had limited effect on this sort of decision making at the other end.

I have been recommended to read Trading to Win by Ari Kiev.

I will read this and think of some possible solutions to improve this situation.

Notes

Below is the link to the coin flip experiment.

http://coinflipbet.herokuapp.com/

Also check out the article called Lessons from betting on a biased coin, afterwards to find out what they learned and how your results fit in with this.

Thanks to Auh for sharing this article and experiment with me, it has been very helpful.

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Mar 10th

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Mar 10th

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 76k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 26k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down / sideways with last month a high above the range of the last six months.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Above 230 would be a higher high and above 200k would be higher than the previous range.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 190k

Between 165k to 215k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

130k to 165k would be a miss. 216 to 242 would be a beat.

Below 130k would be a big miss and above 242k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 28 NFPs’

In 21 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 5 cases, the high was made by 1345

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

68

VAH70

59

VAL70

37

MODE

44

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


60.66

HI

60.14-22

LVN/P.LO

59.91-02

SZ

59.86

SESS.HI

CP
59.44

SES.LOW

59-58.21

BZ

58.54-42

BZ

 

Hypo NFP EXP = 190K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

10th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER TB 0930 UK MAN PROD EU SUMMIT
1330 US NFP

Previous Day – ERC down day with strong close 50% @ 60.14

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, for cont, hold 60.34-68 bac 59.51

10m – Down TR, for cont, hold 87-60.02 ba 59.51

Context Play till NFP

1. Balance

Shorts hold 87-02 t 75 t2 59.63

Longs hold/bof 59.63-59.51 t 59.76

2. TR cont

Short bac 59.51 y 59.24 bac t 58.98-80

9th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

9th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1245 EZ IR 1330 ECB Presser

Previous Day – Inside day bof complete, with down day with range close

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, but at bal low, for cont hold 82-97 bac 60.46

10m – Up TR, possible bal 80-46, bac for dir, bull trap at 81

Context Play till ECB News/Presser

1. Balance

Short: hold/bof 75-81 t 60

Long: hold/bof 50-46 t 60

2. Back into bal va

Long: bac 88 t 97 bac 97 t 14 t2 25

3. TR down

Short: bac 46 hold on rrt 45-55 t 30-17

8th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 GER IND PROD 1035 GER AUC 1315 US ADP EMPLY
1530 US CRUDE

Previous Day – Inside day poss bof. 61.33 hi @61.55 lo @60.84

Big Picture

60m – Neutral TR, for t/c bac 61.64, otherwise possible bal 61.64-60.68

10m – Neutral TR, in bal 61.44-61.17 bac for dir

Context Play

1. ID.BOF

Short: bac 61.17 hold 61.20-30 on rrt, t 06-00 t2 60.91-84 bac t 60.78-68 watch for bof, bac 68 t 60.41 t2 62.29-17

2. Balance BU and Trend

Long : bac 44 t 61.55 t2 64 bac 64 y 76-89 t2 62.10-23

3. Balance

Short: Bof 61.64 t 61.52-44 bac 44 t 26

Longs: Bof/gap fil 60.84-78 t 06-14

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.85 Long trades 63.13

8th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th March 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 Ger Factory 1000 EZ GDP 1330 US TB

Previous Day – INSIDE DAY, HI@64.54 LO@64.05

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, LH for tr cont, hold 64.54and bac 64.05 and 63.89

10m – Down TR, pbip for cont, exp LH at 25-36 and bac 64.05

Context Play

1. TR cont

Short: 29036 t 14 t 2 05-99 t3 63.89 bac 89 hold 93-088 on rrt t70-62 t 63.50-38

2. Balance

Longs bof of 05/gapfill and t 15 t2 24-36 bac 29 then t 43-54

Shorts hold / bof 43-54 t20

3. TR 60, complex pb,

Longs bac 64.54 t 73-86

Shorts hold 73-86 t 57

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.85 Long trades 63.13