26th Feb – Bund Big Picture


We are in an uptrend, pulled back to support and now rotating upwards.

Weekly, my expectations as we are in an uptrend is for a test the Hi at 167.61 as longs we hold the recent low.


The daily shows that in the past we broke down from the upper balance (a), to retest the lower balance (b) which provided support, we then returned to retest the upper balance (c) and then went into balance and we have now broken out of that balance(d) and are now back into the brexit balance (c)

My expectations are that we should test the blue line 166.67 / balance hi 167.61, if we can hold the breakout balance area of (d)

That this was a deep pullback it is possible that this whole area between the 2 balances turns into one larger balance (a)

For this to happen, I would expect sellers to come between the 166.67 and the high at 167.71. Or a breakout failure at the highs on daily and weekly time frame.

60 MIN

The daily swing up is just over 1 sd in length from 163.13 (a) and the 2 sd comes in at 166.93 (b). In good trend it is not unusual for rotations to be around the 2 Sd in length. So whilst the daily is starting to get overstretched and coming into an area of potential bigger picture selling. I do not see any sign that pullback is imminent on the daily timeframe.

The 60min is in an uptrend and the swing length is past in 2 sd rotation swing size (c). And coming into a lvn area on the weekly (d)

We have a target of 166.67 the blue line which is just before the 2 sd and the 2 orange dotted lines which are HVN areas on the daily chart.

Stats wise we are due a pullback on the hourly. If we cannot accept prices (break and close) above Fridays high then there is a good possibility that we might get a pullback on the hourly before resumption of the uptrend.

If we can break and close above the high then I would be looking for the test of upwards to the blue line and the possible the Hvn above at 166.72 (nvpoc) to 166.94 and 167.23 (which is also a naked weekly poc)

If we cannot hold above Fridays High then we could start a pullback on the hourly chart what is of interest below Friday close. Below is the 15min chart.

A mode rotation down on the 60min will takes us back to the balance area (a) formed on Friday afternoon, then broke up on in the US session. Which is also the value area of the daily profile, and the 23.6 fib pullback. Also in the area of 166.03 is the previous mid, and the origin of the last rotation up.

This would be the first area, I would be look at for buyers to step in. It is a pretty wide level, so to narrow it down, I would be looking at the 166.16-10 and then 166.03-165.96. A break and close of 79 could indicate a deeper pullback on the hourly.

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