US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 104k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 36k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Above 200K would be a breakout of the current range.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 175k

Between 135k to 215k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

95 to 134k would be a miss. 216 to 255 would be a beat.

Below 94k would be a big miss and above 255k would be a big beat. ****

Notes – Out of the Last 12 NFPs’

In 7 cases, the low was made by 1345(3 miss and 4 beats)

In 4 cases, the high was made by 1345 (4 miss)

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90 68
VAH70 60
VAL70 40
MODE 53

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


 

Hypo NFP EXP = 175K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

 

62.78

COR ZONE

42-57

POC/DHL

62.29

SESS HI

CP
62.01

YPOC/CVAH

61.78-63

BZ/DL/CPOV

61.50-55

D.LOW/CVAL

61.44

CVAL2

61.36-34

BZ

Trade 1

Join the IM 50%; T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before / at 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50%; T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

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