27th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

27th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 FR CPI 1035 GER AUC 1330 US GDP
1400 US SP HPI 1500 US CB CONS CON 2100 US TRUMP

 

TUE (NEU)

Up

54/74

Dwn

70/70

Previous Day – INSIDE DAY WITH HI 66.32/66.40 LO @ 65.90/65.60

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, PB in play, supprt @ 65.86-79 and 65.60-50

10m – Down TR, HOLD 66.11-66.19, BAC 65.90-65.79 FOR CONT

Context Play

1. TR Pullback cont

Short: hold 00 or 11-19 t 86-79 bac 79 t 63

Longs: 63-50 t 79 bac 79 t 96-00

2. TR Pullback finish

Longs: hold / bof 86-79 t 00 bac 00 t2 11-19

Red flag levels – Short trades 66.40 Long trades 65.78

26th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

26th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 EZ SPAN CPI 1330 US CORE DUR** 1500 US PEND HOME SALE**

 

MON (NEU)

Up

40/80

Dwn

-40/-60

Previous Day – UP DAY WITH STRONG CLOSE.

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, for cont. bac 66.40 T 66.67-72(nvpoc) to 166.94 and 167.23. OE past 2 SD

10m – Up TR, for cont. hold 66.29-25 bsc 66.40

Context Play

1. TR Cont

Long; hold/nof 66.29-66.25 T 40 bac 40 T1 66.62-67 T2 66.72-93 T3 167.23

2. TR Pullback

Short: Bac 66.25 T 66.16

Long: 66.16-10 or 66.03-96 t 66.25-30

Red flag levels – Short trades 66.40 Long trades 65.78

26th Feb – Bund Big Picture

26th Feb – Bund Big Picture

Weekly

We are in an uptrend, pulled back to support and now rotating upwards.

Weekly, my expectations as we are in an uptrend is for a test the Hi at 167.61 as longs we hold the recent low.

Daily

The daily shows that in the past we broke down from the upper balance (a), to retest the lower balance (b) which provided support, we then returned to retest the upper balance (c) and then went into balance and we have now broken out of that balance(d) and are now back into the brexit balance (c)

My expectations are that we should test the blue line 166.67 / balance hi 167.61, if we can hold the breakout balance area of (d)

That this was a deep pullback it is possible that this whole area between the 2 balances turns into one larger balance (a)

For this to happen, I would expect sellers to come between the 166.67 and the high at 167.71. Or a breakout failure at the highs on daily and weekly time frame.

60 MIN

The daily swing up is just over 1 sd in length from 163.13 (a) and the 2 sd comes in at 166.93 (b). In good trend it is not unusual for rotations to be around the 2 Sd in length. So whilst the daily is starting to get overstretched and coming into an area of potential bigger picture selling. I do not see any sign that pullback is imminent on the daily timeframe.

The 60min is in an uptrend and the swing length is past in 2 sd rotation swing size (c). And coming into a lvn area on the weekly (d)

We have a target of 166.67 the blue line which is just before the 2 sd and the 2 orange dotted lines which are HVN areas on the daily chart.

Stats wise we are due a pullback on the hourly. If we cannot accept prices (break and close) above Fridays high then there is a good possibility that we might get a pullback on the hourly before resumption of the uptrend.

If we can break and close above the high then I would be looking for the test of upwards to the blue line and the possible the Hvn above at 166.72 (nvpoc) to 166.94 and 167.23 (which is also a naked weekly poc)

If we cannot hold above Fridays High then we could start a pullback on the hourly chart what is of interest below Friday close. Below is the 15min chart.

A mode rotation down on the 60min will takes us back to the balance area (a) formed on Friday afternoon, then broke up on in the US session. Which is also the value area of the daily profile, and the 23.6 fib pullback. Also in the area of 166.03 is the previous mid, and the origin of the last rotation up.

This would be the first area, I would be look at for buyers to step in. It is a pretty wide level, so to narrow it down, I would be looking at the 166.16-10 and then 166.03-165.96. A break and close of 79 could indicate a deeper pullback on the hourly.

23rd Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

23rd Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER GDP 1330 US JOBS 1600 US CRUDE

 

THUR DWN (-2.6)

Up

45/87

Dwn

70/170

Previous Day – ERC UP DAY

Big Picture

60m – Up TR, for cont hold 64.75 bac 65.53

10m – Neutral, for cont hold 84-75 bac 65.19

Context Play

1. Bal I/O

Shorts hold /bof 40-53 t 20

Longs Hold 90-74 T06

2. Cont up

Long BAC 19 t 40-53, bac 53 t 63-79 Watch for bof of 79

3. Trend pullback

Hold 19-31 t 90 t2 84-75 bac 75 t 65 bac 65 t 40

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.94 Long trades 64.09

22nd Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

22nd Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 GER IFO 0930 GBP GDP 1000 EZ CPI
1035 BUND AUC 1500 US HOME SALES 1900 US FOMC

 

Weds NEU (-1.34)

Up

49/82

Dwn

50/80

Previous Day – Neutral Range Day, with v.weak down close, @ DSZ 3TB

Big Picture

60m – Neutral, in bal, bac 64.64 / 64.18 for dir

10m – Long TR, for cont, hold 40-30 bac 64.64

Context Play

1. BAL – Break up

Long: Hold 40-30, T 56-64 bac 64 t 82-94 bac 94 t 18-31

2. Balance – O/I

Short: BOF 64.64, t 46 t2 40-30 BAC 30 T 64.22-09

Long: Hold 64.22-09 T 40

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.94 Long trades 64.09

21st Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 FR CPI 0800 FR PMI 0830 GER PMI
0900 EZ PMI 1445 US PMI

 

Tues NEU (0.8)

Up

54/74

Dwn

50/70

Previous Day – Up range day at d.sz (3tb to dsz)

Big Picture

60m – Long TR, for cont, hold 32-18 bac 64.64 and then 64.94

10m – Long TR, for cont, hold 48-32 bac 64.64

Context Play

1. Balance O/I

Short: hold / bof 64-76 t 48-32

Long: hold / bof 30/20 t 48 t2 64

2. Bal BU – Trend Cont

Long: Hold / bof 48-32 BAC 64 hold 56-48 on RRT, t 85-94 (watch for bof) bac 94 t 10-17 t2 31-41

Shorts: Hold 31-45 T 17

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.94 Long trades 63.62

20th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

20th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

US HOLIDAY 0700 GER PPI 1400 FR AUC

 

MON NEU (0)

Up

40/80

Dwn

40/60

Previous Day – Up day with strong close with poss bof of 64.46 (3tb to dsz)

Big Picture

60m – Long TR, for cont, hold 63.82-63.62 bac 64.64 y 64.82-94 bac 94 t 65.40-79. Bac of 64.30 then Pbip. T 64.07 t2 63.82

10m – Neutral, in bal, bac of 64.30 0 64.64 for dir

Context Play

1. Balance O/I

Short: hold / bof 55-64 t 40

Long: hold / bof 30/20 t 40

2. Bal BU – Trend Cont

Long: BAC 64 hold 56-48 on RRT, t 85-94 (watch for bof) bac 94 t 10-17 t2 31-41

Shorts: Hold 31-45 T 17

3. Bal BD – Trend PB

Short: BAC 30 hold 34-45 on RRT, T 07-00 BAC T 82-62

Longs: Hold. 07-00 T 20 t2 35-45

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.94 Long trades 63.62

Progress 6 – Live Testing Continues

Progress 6 – Live Testing Continues

This weekly trade review is part 6 of my progress on rebuilding my trading system to be more systematic and semi-automated.

I am currently working on the auto entry, with discretionary context and discretionary buy/sell areas.

The plan for this week was to test the system live with 1 lots.

The review this week be short, as there is not much to report.

How did it go?

The testing of 1 lots on the system is complete. No major problems to report. The system sends the orders timely and at the correct price.

I added a setting where the price sent was at a limit order but based on a micro pullback, which works well on fades on strong trends. This is simple a setting that sends the order at the close price plus 2 ticks for shorts and minus 2 ticks for longs. A problem is that in fast moving markets it sometimes gets confused as to what close I am preferring to. As the order gets sent before the close has registered on the platform. So I am changing that to experiment with either the last traded price or the bid/ask price plus / minus 2 ticks.

Next steps

Update the Risk Plan for moving to 2 lots testing. No major changes to current plan but how I manage the trades and stops, now that the system is using 2 lots.

To test the system using 2 lots for a minimum of 20 trades.

I have updated the system so that the triggers settings could be updated automatically on market type, i.e. low volume, normal and high volume.

When I say automatically, currently I choose what type of market it is, and then this sends the settings to the triggers.

At the moment, they are still at the current settings. Before using this change, I need to do the following.

Test the current system for a fair sample to gather data. So, that when this is implemented, I can compare the low and high volume settings to the normal settings to see how each performs.

I need to compile data in what constitutes the different volume regimes.

Then I need to research and back test the different settings for these regimes before testing for real.

Before that I would like to implement a better system for buy and sell areas, at the moment I have one buy and sell area. I would like to implement a system that has more than one buy and sell area.

As Friday was a good example, with a strong up trend in place, there was a couple of choices for fades. The auto trigger got me in, and I had only just moved the sell line to the next area, when there was a spike taking me out, but the auto trigger which got me back in. If I had been a bit slow moving the line, then I would have been stopped out and with no entry into the second trade. So, would have missed a good fade opportunity.

weekly trade review

Points to note going forward.

I have plenty of ideas on how to improve the auto triggers, but I can see that even just adding the third type of entry trigger, this adds more decision making to the system and I can end up making it a lot more complicated with system creep.

To this extent, I am only trailing the third entry type of trigger and will decide on whether I keep it over the next couple of weeks.

And all further changes must be tested and then used to replace rather add to the system.

17th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

17th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1330 US BP 1330 US PHILLY FED

 

FRI DWN (4.62)

Up

40/90

Dwn

107

Previous Day – Up day with strong close

Big Picture

60m – Neutral TR, for t/c, hl / hold 50-30 and bac 64.07

10m – Long TR, for cont, hold 63.60 or 50-30 bac 63.9s

Context Play

1. Trend – PB

Short: Hold/bof 85-93 (ip) t 73 bac 73 t 63.60 t2 63.50

Long: Hold 63.64-60 50 T 73 t2 85-93

2. Trend Cont

Long: Hold/bof 73 t 85-93 bac T 64.07 T2 17-22 T3 31-46

Shorts: Hold 31-45 T 17

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.88 Long trades 62.92

16th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th Feb 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1330 US BP 1330 US PHILLY FED

 

THURS DWN (2.04)

Up

49/87

Dwn

70/170

Previous Day – Down range, @ wval and cvpoc to 30

Big Picture

60m – Down TR, hold 63.73-86 bac 62.98 for cont, poss bear trap at 62.98

10m – Neutral. In bal, bac of 63.48/59 or 63.13 for dir

Context Play

1. Bal – Cont

Short: Hold / bof 55-59 t 46 t2 38

Long: hold 26-13 t 38-48

2. Bal – BU

Longs: Bac 48 hold 48-38 on RT, T 59-65 bac t 73-85

Shorts: 85-93 T 65

3. Bal – BD

Shorts: bac 13 hold 20-28 on RT, t 03-98 t2 92

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.88 Long trades 62.92