19th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1245 ECB IR 1330 EZ PRESSER 1600 US CRUDE

 

THURS – NEU (0.0)

Up

50

Dwn

-70

Weekly Summary – Range up week with neutral close Lo. 62.47 hi 64.19

Previous Day – Down day with strong down close

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, for t/c to short bac 62.46

15min – Down TR, for cont hold 63.37-58 and bac 13 and 00

Context Play

1.15m Trend down cont

Short: Hold 37-58 pent 47 t 20 t2 13-00 bac 00 t 87 t2 70 t3 58-46

Long: Hold 87-77 t 06 t2 13

Long: Hold 58-46 t 70 t2 88

2. Balance – BOF

Long : BOF 63-12-00 t 63.50 t2 63.47 bac 47 t 69-81

Shorts: Hold 69.81 T 47

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.85 Long trades 63.13 and then 62.46

18th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

18th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER CPI 0930 UK AVE 1000 EZ CPI
1330 US CPI

 

WEDS – UP (1.8)

Up

53

Dwn

50

Weekly Summary – Range up week with neutral close Lo. 62.47 hi 64.19

Previous Day – UP day with weak bull close (Pbar_ low @63.71

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Up TR, Pbip, for cont hold 38-12 bac 64.52

15min – Down TR, for cont hold 16-31 bac 71 (watch for gap trap)

Context Play

1.15m Trend down cont

Short: 90-00 T70 BAC 70 T 57 T2 40 BAC 40 T 26-13

Long: 26-12 T 40 T 70

2. BALANCE / CHOP

Short: 15-31 T 95 T 70

Long: 71-59 T 95 T2 10-15

3. Trend up resumption

Long: 70 or 60-50, t 90, bac 90, T 10-15, bac 15 t 30 bac 30 t 45-54 ts 65

Short: BOF 52-65 t 40 t 21

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.45 Long trades 62.13

17th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

17th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK CPI 1000 GER ZEW 1145 UK PM
1330 US EMP MANU

TUES – UP (1.8)

Up

45

Dwn

50

Weekly Summary – Range up week with neutral close Lo. 62.47 hi 64.19

Previous Day – ID 63.92/63.39 and 64.01/63.14

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Down TR, for cont, exp hold 63.83 – 64.04 and bac 63.40

15min – Neutral, bac 63.79/63.52 for test of 63.92/63.39 and bac of these for direction

Context Play

1. Balance Outside in

Short: 63.92 BOF T63.62 t 63.42

Long: 63.42 BOF T 63.62 T 63.85

2. Trend cont Down (balance breakdown)

Short: Bac 52 hold 53-62 on retest t 42-39 bac 39 T 20-14 bac 14 T00

Long: Hold/Bof 20-14-03 T 36

3. Balance Breakup

Long: Bac 62 t 79, bac 79 t 87-02 bac 92 t 04 (watch for bof)

Short: BOF 04, T 86-60

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.20 Long trades 62.88

16th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 EZ Italy Cpi  US MLK

Mon – Neu

Up

+40

Dwn

-40

Weekly Summary – Range up week with neutral close Lo. 62.47 hi 64.19

Previous Day – Range Neutral day with Neutral close lo. 61.314 hi 64.04

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD = 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Down TR, for cont, exp hold 63.83 – 64.04

15min – Down TR, for cont, pbip, for cont exp hold 63.73 bac 47 for tst of 63.15-00 (2tb) watch for bear trap. A bac and test of 86-04 could indicate more bal / chop for the short term

Context Play – HP of Neutral day.

1. Bac of bal 63.50-64.20, and retest in progress and rejection downwards. Trend down and possible ext. Inside / Out

Shorts : Price holds 66-73 bac 50-47 t 26-13 bac 13 (watch for bof) t 00 bac 00 t 92-85.

Longs : 13-00 and 92-85

2. Bac into va of bal 63.50 and test of Poc and VAH. Possible resumption of balance. Outside / In

Longs : 55.47.29 t 73. bac 73 t 90-04

Shorts : 90-04 esp bof T 73

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.20 Long trades 62.88

Progress – Black and White

Progress – Black and White

Last week, in my weekly trade review – Plans and focus for 2017,  I laid out my overall goals for the year. Primary this is to become more systematic in my trading.

I traded Monday, and I quickly realised I cannot have both systems in my head. The ongoing rebuild of my system into a systematic progress and my current one which is primary discretionary.

I have made a decision to stop trading until I have finished my rebuild.

Let me be clear, this rebuild is not about throwing out my current edge. It is about 2 things

1) Understanding my context read better, and how I can systematic use this to improve my targets.

2) Turning my triggers into a more black and white means of entering. This is to reduce the amount of decisions needed to be made per trade.

How am I approaching this?

Context

I have split my context reads into areas. For example, Trending and Balance, these are then split into sub sections.

For example, Trending with expectancy to go into balance / pullback.

For a while now, I have been using the OODA decision loop to help me make decisions. Which I simplified to DADA

Hypothesis – Collect Data on the Hypo, Analysis, Decision and Act and repeat.

Which is good model for analysing stats and trade reviews.

But over Christmas, I read Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making by Gary A. Klein.

Which is a good book, but it did not tell me anything new. But if you are into improving your decision making then it is interesting book.

But one section discussing the decision-making loop, and that the studies found that experienced people tend to use a different model called Recognition Primed Decision Model.

weekly trade review

I think this model fits in well with trying to incorporate my context read into a more usual model for targets and areas to fade. So, I have altered this to fit my needs with regard to reading context whilst remaining flexible.

Example

Situation Trending Market
Clues Trend Rots are >= STD DEV
Counter Trend Rots are <= STD DEV
Increasing or equal Vol/Delta on Trend Rots
Not at HTF Area of Interest
No Change in character in last rot in either Vol/Delta/PA
HTF ROT < STD DEV
Exp To make new extreme
Goal Buy Pullback to AOI with Target HTF AOI
Actions How I enter the market.
Where my stop is.
What is my TM.

Obviously, the actions change for each play. But I stick to this model until the clues or expectancies start to be violated which then gives me more clues to my other context models. Which I then switch to.

The primary use is to give me better targets, for my entries, and whilst seeming more rigid, gives me more flexibility and takes the focus off the individual levels.

I am also working on my stats, to make them into more useable pieces of information. Whether they are for scalps for gap closes and open drive, or whether they indicate where a likely target / bottom / top should be for the session.

What has helped with the Stats on the Bund at least, has been splitting the sessions into European and US. As the nature of these individual sub sessions can be very different.

Triggers

I have been working on how to express my discretionary triggers into a more black and white format. This is, not surprising, hard and slow going. But I am making progress. Does not help that I am new to coding in RTL in RT Investor. So, I make a lot of mistakes and it will take me at least another week to get on top of this.

It is not that my triggers are that complicated. Just how do I express something that was very much discretionary into something that is black and white but adaptive enough to be a realistic trigger. But I am making progress and in turn this is teaching more about my triggers than I knew previously.

For example, One of the order flow triggers I have been using which indicates a possible fade entry. Once coded and tested also shows that it certainly is not a fade entry when price breaks out of a range. Instead of a sign of weakness it becomes a sign of strength.

But all in all, very interesting time.

Looking forward to putting it all together and getting back to trading.

13th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 EZ Span CPI 1330 US Retail Sales 1330 US JOBS

 

Fri – DW

Up

+40

Dwn

-50

Weekly Summary – Down week with strong down close, w m.50% @ 63.61 P.wk low at 163.55

Previous Day – Range down day with strong down close. Low @ 63.52

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD < 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, LH and at t/l and pr.vah, hold 63.95 and bac 63.52

15min – Down TR, for cont, exp hold 93-00 and bac 52, watch for bear trap @ 52 (3tb)

Context Play

1. Retest of previous bal and failure back into VA

Bac of p.vah at 63.52 t 52 t 2 15-00 bac 00 t 92-88

2. Retest of previous bal and reject into Balance

Hold / BOF 63.52, t 78-80 t2 93-00 t3 10-19; shorts at 93-19 esp bof for return to mid and new balance area

3. Retest of previous bal and rejection into Up day

Bac 64.19/24 T38-41 T2 64.52

Red flag levels – Short trades 64.24 Long trades 62.52

12th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ IND PROD 1230 EZ MPM 1330 US JOBS

Weekly Summary – Down week with strong down close, w m.50% @ 63.61 P.wk low at 163.55

Previous Day – Range down day with strong down close. M5-% at 63.24

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD = 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Up TR, for cont, exp hold 15-99 bac 63.99, but is this a bac or bof of bal. bac hold 55 and 38 and quick rejection for bac, bac of 36 for bof

15min – Up TR, for cont, exp hold 55-39 bac 98

Context Play

1. Balance – BOF – Hold 74-80 and bac 55-50 t 39-36 bac 36 t 15-99 bac 99 t 90 t2 80-70 t3 56

2. Balance – BU ext, hold 55-50 or 39-36 and bac 74 t 98, bac 98 t 64.08-23 t2 36-52

3. Balance -Chop. Holds / BOF 39-36 or 15-99 and holds 74-89 topside and chops

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.98 Long trades 62.36

11th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

11th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 GBP Man Prod 1035 Bund Auction 1530 US Crude Oil

Weekly Summary – Down week with strong down close, w m.50% @ 63.61 P.wk low at 163.55

Previous Day – Range down day with strong down close. M5-% at 63.24

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD < 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 92/36 for direction

15min – Neutral TR, in bal. bac 92/36 for direction

Context Play

1. Balance – Break Up. Test of vah and hold poc and then bac of 36, hold 36-25 on retest. T 63.50 t2 67-74 watch for bof

2. Balance – BOF – either 36 or 92, T opp va.

3. Balance – Break Down. Test of val and hold poc and then bac of 92, hold 00 on retest T80 t2 52.45

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.76 Long trades 62.45

9th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

9th Jan 2017 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER IND PROD

Weekly Summary – Down week with strong down close, w m.50% @ 63.61 P.wk low at 163.55

Previous Day – Range down day with strong down close. M5-% at 63.24

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD < 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, back at bal low, for bo exp 99-14 (val) or 23-36(mid/poc) to hold and bac of 82-67. Possible bof in play with the late test below 82. (if yes exp test of poc and then vah/hi)

15min – Short TR, at bottom of bal, for cont, exp to hold 09-24 and bac 67 in bal, bof of low and at va high.

Context Play

1. Balance – Break Down. Exp to hold val 99-14 (pent) or poc/mid with TT (23-36) and bac 82-67 T 51-46 t2 21-00 bac 00 t 61.66

2. Balance – BOF, hold or bof of 82-67 and bac 09-15 (Clues – Gap up (NF) / BIC) Longs favour T 23-35. Watch reaction for clues for direction. BIC and bac of 35 then Longs T 55-67

3. Balance – Break up. BAC of POC, retest POC with TT, vol/delta on up rots, imp up rots, bac of 56-67, hold on retest and bac of 74 T 64 t2 64.17 t3 64.3

Red flag levels – Short trades 63.76 Long trades 62.81

What is the Plan and Focus for 2017 – Changes

What is the Plan and Focus for 2017 – Changes

Over the Christmas break, I spent a lot of time reviewing and analysing my 2016 performance. So before moving on to what I tend to change and what my focus will be. It will be good to go through a general summary of what worked well and what I did poorly.

2016

What I did well in my Trading

1. My levels where I intended to do business overall were very good.

2. My context read was generally good to very good.

3. My consistency has improved compared to previous years. Though it nowhere near where I want it to be.

What did I do poorly?

1. I am not trading my levels within my framework of context and stats particularly well.

2. Whilst my consistency has improved, I am still having problems with decision fatigue at the end of session and accumulative fatigue over the long periods (3 months approximately)

3. Micro management is a problem that ebbs and flow thought out the year. See 1.

The whys

For 1 and 3

Why am I not trading my levels within the framework of my context and statistics?

I am too focused on the levels. Going through my previous reviews and study’s, it has been about narrowing down what levels, triggers etc. I have spent very little time working on what regime the market is in, and how these levels play in to the stats I have and my generally good context read of the market.

Why am I focusing on my levels?

I am trading the reaction as that has me in my comfort zone and keeps my fear of loss under control.

Also, my constant focus in prep and homework is on levels thus it natural that this becomes a focus of my trading day.

For 2.

Why am I suffering decision fatigue?

As my focus is so much on getting in as close to where I am wrong and I miss the trade, these causes this then causes me to worker harder to find a second entry or an alternative setup. When an entry in to the original trade within my context would have been much simpler.

Too much discretionary in my trading generally leads me to end of day fatigue.

Too much time staring at charts where I know I have no edge.

Summary

My weakest link in my trading is me and that needs to stop.

2017

My focus for 2017 is to make me the least important part of my trading system.

I am going to do this

By breaking down every part of my trading system and making it more systematic on all levels. This will strip even more of the discretionary side of my trading out, thus reducing decision fatigue. I do not have to catch every move, but I need to catch every move that my trading system tells me to within the frame work of my context / stats.

If I do not get a set up then fine, but my triggers are so discretionary that it requires a lot of focus to take the trades.

I find the blind trades a lot less stressful over time, the hard work in the blind entries is deciding which level to take blind.

So, by getting more systematic or black and white in these parts of my trading, will reduce the amount of decision making.

I am not just blinding changing my process for these. I have been learning to code trading systems in RT Investor, so that I can break down each set up / trigger and back test to see if these have an edge.

I am going to focus on the setups that bring the best return and stop trying to be a generalist.

I am going to focus on the sub-sessions and market regimes that I know my edge works the best in.

I am going to spend more time working on improving my integration of my stats and context into my trading. Again, though systematic process.

I am going to improve my taking of regular breaks over the weeks to ensure that I am maintain my focus.

I have broken down the above areas of focus into more specific outcome goals, then process goals followed by performance goals.  This will enable me to work towards the bigger focus with some consistency and feedback.