7th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

7th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger ind Prod 0930 UK Man Prod 1500 US JOLTS
1530 US Crude

Weekly Summary – Down range week with neutral down close

Previous Day – ID, down day with very strong down close, lo @ 59.86 hi @60.73/61.45

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 38t SD < 30D SD / Down 62t SD > 30D SD

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, for cont, holds 60.25-.35 bac 59.86, poss bear trap at 59.54

15min – Short TR, for cont, hold hold 60.15-35 bac 59.86 (poss bof)

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
60.70-80 T60.54 74 70-80 TR
SZ 52-58 T40 52 52-58 BL
SZ 24-38 T02 27 24-38 TR
S.VAL 60.15-20 T59.96 60.17 12-23 TR/BOF
CP= 59.86
L @ 59.86 T 60.15 59386 59.95-86 BOF IN PLAY
BZ 59.67-54 T59.85 59.60 59.60-54 TR/BOF
BZ 59.38-14 T59.80 59.28 59.38-28 BL
BZ 59.14 T59.55 59.15 59.23-14 BOF

Red flag levels – Short trades 60.83 Long trades 59.14

6th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

6th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Ger Fac Orders 1000 EZ GDP 1330 TB
1500 US Fac Orders

Weekly Summary – Down range week with neutral down close

Previous Day – ERC down with neutral down close, poss daily bal/range forming 63.19 – 59-14

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 38t SD < 30D SD / Down 60t SD > 30D SD

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, for t/c to short, then LH (65-85?) and LL bac 59.86

15min – Short TR, for cont, hold 68-80 bac 60.35 and 59.86

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 61.34-50 T61.05 61.43 61.36-45 TR/BOF
SZ 61.06-13 T60.80 61.03 61.03-13 TR
B ON BPB 60.80 T61 60.75 60.82-75 BL/TR ON BAC OF 80
SZ 67-80 T60.35 60.70 64-80 TR/BOF
CP = 160.52
BZ 41-35 T58 40 42-35 TR DOA
BZ 60.00-86 T60.14 59.90 97-86 BL
B LOW 86-82 T60.14 82 78-88 BOF
BZ 59.66-54 T60.08 59.65 75-54 TR

Red flag levels – Short trades 61.44 Long trades 59.14

5th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

5th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

08:55-0900 Ger/EZ PMI 0930 UK PMI TBA Eurogroup
1400 EZ Draghi 1445 US PMI 1500 ISM PMI

Weekly Summary – Down range week with neutral down close

Previous Day – ERC up day with strong up close m.50% @60.51

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 30t SD < 30D SD / Down 100t SD > 30D SD

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp 60.35-11 bac 161.13 and test of 161.23-35, prev bal low, bac for test of bal poc and bal vah.

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp HL at 78-50, and bac of 161.13

Short

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 61.83-00 T53 89 83-00 TR
SZ 62.23-40 T00 33 26-38 TR
CP = 161.06
BZ 60.86-80 T96 60.86 86-80 BL DOA
BZ 75-60 T60.94 60.67 74-60 TR DOA
CONF 52 T60.94 60.52 60.55-47 TR
BZ 60.38-.11 T60.59 60.33 60.39-60.29 TR

Red flag levels – Short trades 61.35 Long trades 60.09

Weekly Trading Review – Builder of Routines

Weekly Trading Review – Builder of Routines

Weekly Trading Review 28th November to 2nd December


Summary of Performance

Overall a good performance.

The number of trades slightly less than average and the overall average grading for the week was an A.

Performance was in the upper variance for my system.

Goal for this week, was to get back to following my routine and process. Which I competed successfully for 4 out of 5 days.

Errors where in 2 camps:

1. My micro management, which is a long-term goal to sort out, but was on the back burner for this week. But will become a focus again.

2. Early entry. 2 trades I got in too early, one resulted in reduced profit and the other I was top ticked, and then missed the secondary entry. I can see why I got in early, but it was good that on the stop out, that I then attempted a secondary trade. I must watch this to make sure these do not become a habit.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my routines and process on every day apart from Thursday. And it just demonstrated that it is a core component to my trading. The only difference between last week and this week, was my following of my process and routine.

So need to keep working on getting fully back into my routine and process so that I perform every day. This will leave me in the situation where I can work on the micro management issues and other ways to improve my returns.

I also need to keep my fitness routine, this is becoming very sporadic, about 2-3 times a week instead of 5 times a week. The main problem is that my usual time to work out recently, there has a potential trade setup and then after that I cannot be bothered as I must rush to get it all done before the US traders come to market.

I have to do my fitness routine, even if it means that I miss the occasionally trade. As sailing, has left me with so many issues, bad knees, bad back and fucked up hands, to name a few. Keeping strong and reasonable fit, helps keeps these issues to a background problem rather than a constant theme to the day.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I had a good day on Wednesday, which required a lot of focus and I found very tiring. Thursday I was very gun shy and took no trades, I had a couple of no fills but I was extremely reluctance to trade.

Why did I not follow my routine and process on Thursday? Fear of giving back the profits from the day before.

Why was I fearful of giving back the profits? I was tired and I was playing not to lose, rather than playing to win.

Why was I playing not to lose rather than playing to win? A lack of self-belief / self confidence that I can do this.

I see parallels this in my racing career, there are notable races during the early stages of my career where I was leading the race, but then gave back the lead to finish second or third. This was due to lack of self-belief and then self-sabotage where I would then relax and stop pushing once I was in the lead.

I only overcome that in racing by not focusing on the result, i.e I am in the lead, but my purely focusing on what I needed to do next, and making the right decisions whether I am in regardless of my current position.

The decisions and process do not change, the only thing that changes is the focus. When leading, the focus was on the result.

What got me into the lead and enable me to perform at my best was a unrelating focus on the process and decision making.

It is like racing during heavy winds, in the end, the heavy winds will drop, but some of the most important decisions are made at this stage. People are tired, beaten up, wet and cold. The easing conditions means the possibility of some sleep and less physically hard conditions. What people want to do is rest rather than push, increase the sail area, sort the boat out and focus on the driving the boat back to 100%. There are great gains to made doing this, whilst others are still recovering.

So after a heavy trading session whether it is profitable or not, the easy decision is to rest and recover. But it is the better decision to focus on the routine and process and keep going.

How I overcame this in racing was that if I found myself thinking about whether I needed to do something that I do not want to do, then I would announce out loud that we was doing it. This committed myself to this course of action.

To apply this to my trading, I am going to revise my logical statements to include a positive reference to my sailing, where I faced the same difficulties and overcame them.

I repeat the relative logical statement after each trade I take.

These are my current statements

After every winning trade – My ideal future will not be become a reality, if I don’t concentrate on taking the trade opportunities, which are presented to me now and during this session. Remember the Fastnet Rock and Leg 2 Clipper. Update Mini Plan and use RR tool.

After losing trade – this is trade just one in thousands of trades in my career, it means nothing.

Losing Trade with less than B grade. – The hard work I have done to find an edge is not destroyed when I take a single bad trade, it is destroyed by trying to win the money back by taking subsequent trades without context and without a plan.

These are my updated statements.

After every winning trade – I will not become the best I can be without following my routine and process and taking the next Grade A trade. Remember winning the Fastnet Race and the decision point just after the Rock.

After a losing trade – this trade is just one in thousands of trades in my career, it means nothing. Follow my routine and process and take the next Grade A trade. Remember the poor start of Victory Champs, and winning the race by focusing on the routine and process and what that felt like.

Losing Trade with less than a “B” grade. – The hard work I have done is not ruined by taking one single poor trade, it is ruined by taking subsequent trades without context and without a plan. Remember the Victory Twilight light wind race and the wrong call which result in being second to last at the first mark, and then winning the race by a country mile, this was done by focusing on routine and process . Recall what that felt like.

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 249k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 80k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Above 250K would be an higher high.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 175k

Between 135k to 215k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

95 to 134k would be a miss. 216 to 255 would be a beat.

Below 94k would be a big miss and above 255k would be a big beat. ****

Notes – Out of the Last 12 NFPs’

In 6 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345

The one side of the extreme has been in place by 1345

If the number has been <=160 (6) then High has been made by 1345 (3)

If the number has been >= 215 (6) then Low has been made by 1345 (5)

If the number was less than exp (7) then the high was made by 1345 (4) or high made by 1400 (1) and one that did not was a big miss -130k others range was -30k to -70k

If the number was more than exp (5) then the low was made by 1345 (5)

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90 118
VAH70 64
VAL70 40
MODE 53

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


60.95-07SZ

SZ

60.74

HI

60.54-64

SZ

60.51

HI/FIB

CP
59.80

SES.LOW

59.54

D.LOW

38

BZ

25-14

BZ/LOW

Hypo NFP EXP = 165K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

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2nd Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

2nd Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK PMI 1330 US NFP  

Weekly Summary – Up week with up close


Previous Day – ERC down day with strong down close. b.50% @60.28 tbc

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 30t SD < 30D SD / Down 60t SD > 30D SD

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, for cont, exp hold 60.51-75 vac 59.14

15min – Short TR, for cont, exp golds 26-51 bac 54

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY NOTE
SZ 60.42-75 59.80 60.52 42-75 BL

Long

BZ 59.47-14 T80 40 40-13 BL / LTF TR NB BOF

LTF

Short

SZ 59.92-06 T82 98 95-07 BL  

Long

Bz 59.54-47 T80 49 55-46 TR/BOF  

Red flag levels – Short trades 60.75 Long trades 59.44