US Non-Farm Payrolls – Dec 2nd

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 249k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 80k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Above 250K would be an higher high.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 175k

Between 135k to 215k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

95 to 134k would be a miss. 216 to 255 would be a beat.

Below 94k would be a big miss and above 255k would be a big beat. ****

Notes – Out of the Last 12 NFPs’

In 6 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345

The one side of the extreme has been in place by 1345

If the number has been <=160 (6) then High has been made by 1345 (3)

If the number has been >= 215 (6) then Low has been made by 1345 (5)

If the number was less than exp (7) then the high was made by 1345 (4) or high made by 1400 (1) and one that did not was a big miss -130k others range was -30k to -70k

If the number was more than exp (5) then the low was made by 1345 (5)

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 12 NFP

VAH90 118
VAH70 64
VAL70 40
MODE 53

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


60.95-07SZ

SZ

60.74

HI

60.54-64

SZ

60.51

HI/FIB

CP
59.80

SES.LOW

59.54

D.LOW

38

BZ

25-14

BZ/LOW

Hypo NFP EXP = 165K

Trying a slightly different tactics this month. Same sets up but just going with the flow. (IM = initial move. SM = Secondary move)

Trade 1

Join the IM 50% T extreme of IM

Trade 2

If before 1345 and BOF of pivot / level then fade T IM 50%

Trade 3

If failure to break 1345 extreme then fade T IM 50%

Trade 4

BAC of IM 50% then join on PB of this SM T Origin

Trade 5

BAC of Origin then join on PB T next level

Trade 6

Join on SM 50% T next level

Trade 7

If BOF of pivot / level then fade T SM 50%

Review

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