Weekly Trading Review – Self Sabotage

Weekly Trading Review – Self Sabotage

Weekly Trading Review – 12th to 16th December

weekly trade review

Summary of Performance

A poor week this week.

Basically, over the last 2 weeks I have managed to fuck up my best every quarter. Whilst I still finished profitable, it has gone from a potential excellent end of year to an under average quarter.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

When I was focused, and following my routines, then my quality of trading was good. But it was the fluctuations between a calm and focused state to an unfocused / distracted / angry trader.

More evidence that my process and routines are the key to my profitability.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I would start off each day focused and on track but slowly over the session. I would find anything to everything would start to irritate me, ranging from a no fill trade / minor computer problem to answering the door to a delivery guy and then this would send me off the deep end and lead to some poor decision making in trades.

Why was I so emotionally unstable?

Basically, it is accumulated fatigue. The long hours I put in each week without a decent break has after a while a negative effect to my trading.

The clues to this starting where in my Weekly Trading Review – Well, that escalated quickly! Post.

And a few traders where even kind and helpful to post these comments

Seorge Goros posted this

Hi Adey,

I believe that similar to the markets our behaviour has a cyclic tendency. Let’s say for simplicity we are either in the zone (happy about our performance, no problems on following up on all our rules, bringing our A-game each and every day, etcetera) or not in the zone (everything just doesn’t seem to work, C-game all over the place).

I wanted to mention the cyclic tendency of human behavior as I think you have dealt with ‘similar’ situations before (http://takingonetradeatatime.com/2016/04/23/weekly-trading-review-17-22-april/#comments and http://takingonetradeatatime.com/2016/06/18/weekly-trading-review-13-17th-june/). I liked your suggested solutions back then, and I think just reading back those posts will give you that little extra kick to get back in following your processes.

And Auh-trader posted this

It’s interesting that you talk about the getting up just a little bit later and it having a knock on effect on pre-market routines – I had this same problem back in the summer, and as you mention it was also a result of accumulated fatigue. I found the best solution (for me anyway), was a decent break away from the screens for a few days doing something completely unrelated to trading. Which I think helps to reset and let our subconscious mind deal with all the accumulated information our brains have not yet fully processed.

I attempted to deal with this problem by going to bed earlier and taking regular breaks.

But this has not helped.

I think the problem, is that once I reach this stage it is too late and more drastic action needs to be taken.

Why did I let myself get so fatigued?

My back ground as a sailor, has instilled a habit of hard work, and an ability to keep pushing though limits. Whilst this is handy skill, I am finding it has negative effects which I have not considered. That whilst racing, there will be an end to the race or on the longer races that take more than 20 days there are periods to catch up on sleep.

I cannot maintain this work rate constantly and retain the same amount of focus. Whilst I take breaks about every 4 months to spend time with the family etc. It is now becoming obvious that these breaks are too far apart to help.

Looking back through my posts and trading journals, it become obvious that about every 3 months, my performance drops till I take a break.

And it is also obvious then when I get to this stage the solutions I put in place are feck all use.

It is not enough to just to be the hard worker in the room, I need to work smarter. In the end, it is all about the results.

I need to have something in place to ensure that I do not get to the over fatigue stage.

It reminds me of physical training. The only solution to over training is to a take a break, and the more over trained one is the long the break. The key is not to get to over trained. The system I used, was that every six weeks I used do a light week of training.

Therefore, starting from the first day of trading next year. I will implement the following

Every sixth week, I will do a light week of trading.

Where I will take one complete day off from trading.

Where I will catch up on sleep and do something totally non-related to trading.

I will call an end to sessions that are not productive. Quite often I can tell that the AM or PM session is not conducive for my edge, instead of sitting there using that to get more screen time. I will do some else for that session.

If I have 2 limit down days with a space of six trading days, then I will take a complete day off from trading.

I will also look at going back to do some side consultancy on the racing front. As this was interesting and the change was as good as a break.

16th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ CPI 1330 US BUILD PER

Weekly Summary – Range week with neutral down close, bac of 63.87 t 65.15 t2 66.11

Previous Day – Neutral day with neutral close

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, c.pb in play, hold 61.97 bac 61.19 and then 60.80

15min – Long Tr, fc, hold 61.57-46 bac 62.03

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 62.44-62 T62.13 62.51 62.44-62 BL
SZ 62.23-30 T62.11 62.26 22.30 TR
SZ 61.94-62.12 T61.75 T60 62.05 61.96-10 TR IN PLAY
CP = 61.73
BZ 61.57-46 T61.75 61.52 61.57-42 TR BOF@45?
BZ 61.30-19 T61.43 61.24 61.28-19 TR BOF@19/08?
BZ 61.03-60.80 T61.17 60.87 60.94-79 TR BOF@80?

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.63 Long trades 61.19

15th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

15th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 FR PMI 0830GER PMI 0900 EZ PMI
0930 UK RETAIL 1200 UK IR 1330 US CPI
1330 US PHILLY FED 1445 US PMI

Weekly Summary – Range week with neutral down close, bac of 63.87 t 65.15 t2 66.11

Previous Day – Down day with v.strong down close

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, bac of 1xbz, for t/c to short then LH (<162.23) bac 161.43

15min – Short TR, f/c hold 161.94-11

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 62.44-62 T62.13 62.51 62.44-62 BL
SZ 62.23-30 T62.11 62.26 22.30 TR
SZ 61.94-62.12 T61.75 62.05 61.96-10 TR
CP = 61.71
BZ 61.63-43 T61.80 61.50 61.57-42 TR BOF@43?
BZ 61.25-08 T61.40 61.15 61.20-07 TR BOF@08?
BZ 61.03-60.80 T61.17 60.87 60.94-79 TR BOF@80?

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.63 Long trades 61.43

14th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

14th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK AVE EARN 1215 UK CARNEY 1330 US PPI
1530 US CRUDE 1900 US FOMC

Weekly Summary – Range week with neutral down close, bac of 63.87 t 65.15 t2 66.11

Previous Day – UP day with strong up

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD Contraction.

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, hold 61.43 bac 61.95 and 62.29

15min – Long TR, hold 61.75-64 bac 95

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 61.92-62.29 61.65 62.05 63.05-.29 TR/BOF
SZ 61.88-61.95 61.64 61.88 61.89-95 BL/BOF IN PLAY
CP = 61.83
BZ 61.66-55 T61.86 61.63 67.55 TR
61.50-43 T61.64 61.48 61.52-42 TR/BOF

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.31 Long trades 60.39

13th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger CPI 0930 UK CPI 1000 GER ZEW
1330 US Export/IMP

Weekly Summary – Range week with neutral down close, bac of 63.87 t 65.15 t2 66.11

Previous Day – BOF of p.day low (in bal) with neutral down close

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD Contraction.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, for dir, bac 61.38/60.82 poss bear trap at 60.82

15min – Long TR, hold 61.03-60.96 and bac 61.27 for cont, NB still inside 60min bal

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 61.92-62.29 61.63 62.05 63.05-.29 TR/BOF
SZ 61.78 61.50 61.78 61.75-80 TR
BAL HI 61.38 T61.23 61.40 61.38-61.50 TR.BOF
CP = 61.20
BZ 61.03.60.96 T61.19 T2 61.40 61.03 61.06-96 TR
60.87-79 T 61.03 60.87 60.90-79 TR/BOF

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.31 Long trades 60.39

12th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

Weekly Summary – Range week with neutral down close, bac of 63.87 t 65.15 t2 66.11

Previous Day – BOF of id.hi and neutral up close. Possible large balance 59.97/62.29

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD > 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD Contraction.

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, hold 61.20-00 bac 62.31

15min – Neutral TR, for dir bac 161.78/161.20

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
SZ 62.00-62.31 61.63 62.05 63.05-.29 TR/BOF
SZ 61.78 61.50 61.78 61.75-80 TR
CP = 61.50
BZ 61.20-61.00 61.62 61.20 61.20-00 TR/BOF
60.64-39 61.00 61.64 64-54 TR

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.31 Long trades 60.39

@YTCtrading challenge completed

@YTCtrading challenge completed

Interesting tweet from Lance Beggs this week.

I thought I would do this challenge, the following is not in any order but as they come to me

1. I trade best when I have meditated

2. I trade best when I take regular breaks

3. I trade best when I focus on my core strategy

4. I trade best when I follow my routines and process

5. I trade best when I have a plan with clear trades in it

6. I trade best when I update this plan regularly during the session.

7. I trade best when I am focused on what the 15min context is

8. I trade best when I am unware of what my P&L is doing.

9. I trade best when I am aware of the 60min context

10. I trade best when I review before the session starts, what my A to C game looks like.

Weekly Trading Review – Law of the Instrument

Weekly Trading Review – Law of the Instrument

Weekly Trading Review – 5th to 9th December

Summary of Performance

I finished this week, down overall. This was due to one mistake which I will cover later.

Other than that, I am reasonable happy with the way this week went. I am back into my routine and following my process (with one exception) and this is paying dividends.

Tiredness is a still a problem but not as much. I am handling this better and the main problem is accumulative, rather than lack of sleep over individual nights. But the Christmas break is just around the corner and I will be able to relax and rest for the New Year.

My goal of getting back into my fitness routine was set back a bit by a head cold. But I got three sessions in and will continue working at this.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I have started to incorporate a new tool into my trading, the footprint chart provided by AMS Trading for RT Investor.

weekly trading review

This is not an addition but a tool to replace the Jigsaw Vista / Bookmap chart setup. Whilst I found those tools very helpful, I was noticing order flow setups, which I was using but was frustrated with the inability to look inside past examples of these setups and see what was going on. I wanted to analyse why some worked and other failed.

I was persuaded by a friend Trading for Singles to try out the footprint chart.

What was good, is that I now having a clearer understand of why some of my triggers work and others don’t. Or what is actually happening inside my trigger setups.

I also now know of the warning signs that when these could be failing after entry and have given me a clearer idea of what I should be looking for in my pre-breakout trades.

Overall very beneficial week from that point of view and I will be updating my trigger process to incorporate these learnings.

The downside of focusing on this tool, was to neglect my core strategy during the week. If my focus is purely on an order flow tool, then everything looks like it can be solved with the order flow tool.

It just demonstrated that whilst order flow is an important especially for my triggers, applying it in the right areas and with respect to the context and using it conjunction with my core strategy is always going to be more important.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I traded the ECB presser, had a basic plan and everything was going well.

During my normal trading, I use the Jigsaw Dom, which does not have the ability (at the moment) to auto place stop and target orders.

So, during news events, I use the Stage 5 Dom, as this does allow me to place auto exits orders. Not that these are always where I am always looking to exit but more of a precaution in case I get caught on the wrong side of a move.

For the ECB presser, I was using the Jigsaw Dom, and what happen on the last question, I got caught on the wrong side of the move with no stop. A day limit loss on one single trade.

Why did I not have a stop in?

I had only just entered the market when the move happened and had not placed the stop order. It was not the case I was trading without a stop, I just had not placed the stop yet.

This is the whole reason why I use the S5 Dom, to avoid this situation.

Why was I not using the Stage 5 Dom?

I was complacent and lazy. I could not be arsed to swap the screen layout around and do not like the S5 dom.

Why was I complacent and lazy?

Having used the other Dom for six months of NFP trading, I have not been caught out on any move, as I always had a stop in and this had lead me to a place of over confidence in my abilities over my procedure.

What did I learn? That my good trading is driven by the maximising my edge using routines and process.

And each of these are in place for good reason.

And ignoring or deviating from these best practises will only set me back in self-confidence and hard earnt profits.

An expensive lesson learnt. Or I should say re learnt.

9th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

9th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK TB 1500 US MICH CON EXP

Weekly Summary – Down range week with neutral down close

Previous Day – BOF of ID X2, ERC WITH V.WEAK DOWN CLOSE HI. 61.99

General Bias SC = 1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD > 30D SD Contraction.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, bal 62.00 – 60.96 bac for dir

15min – Long TR, for cont, hold 61.14-60.96 BAC 61.54

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
BPB 99 T30 99 06-99 TR LONG ON BAC
SZ 90-99 T84 93 93-99 TR/BOF
SZ 61.67-78 T 55 70 70-78 TR
CP = 61.36
BZ 61.34-26 T40 T 50 33 33-26 TR IN PLAY
BZ 61.14-96 T33 T40 14 14-00 TR
P.LOW 79 T96 79 82-76 TR
BZ 60.68-60 T79 T95 68 75-60 TR

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.00 Long trades 60.79

8th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1245 EZ IR 1330 EZ Presser

Weekly Summary – Down range week with neutral down close

Previous Day – BOF of ID, with up day with bull close hi:61.98/62.70

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Up 3D SD = 30D SD / Down 3D SD < 30D SD Contraction.

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, bal 62.00 – 60.96 bac for dir, outside in favoured

15min – Long TR, for cont, hold 61.53 bac 62.00 bac 61.53 t 61.39 t2 61.21

LEVEL E.TAR PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY @ NOTE
BPB 62.00 T62.31 62 62.06-61.90 BL/TR LONG ON BAC
SZ 61.90-6200 T61.80 T2 62.60 62 90-07 TR/BOF
SZ 78-86 T62 T2 56 76 76-82 TR
CP= 61.68
BZ 61.62-53 T75 57 60-52 TR IN PLAY
SZ 61.62-53 T61.39 T61.22 53 53-62 TR/BOF SHORT ON F.PB
BZ 61.21-60.96 T61.39 T53 07 10-96 TR/BOF

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.00 Long trades 60.96