1st Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

1st Dec 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855 Ger PMI 0930 UK PMI 1000 EZ Unemploy
1330 US INIT JOBS 1445 US PMI 1500 US ISM PMI

Weekly Summary – Up week with up close


Previous Day – ERC down day with strong down close. b.50% @61.40 tbc

General Bias SC = -2

Rot Bias 3/30 Up within 30D SD / Down exp outside 30D SD

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, for cont holds 61.83-62.09, but looking for LH (62.27-.56) bac 60.80

15min – Short TR, for cont, hold 20-33, bac 60.80

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.20-56 60.80 62.40 61.20-56 TR

Long

BZ 60.54-31 60.80 54 54-31 TR/BOF  

LTF

Short

SZ 61.20-33 T61 26 22-33 BL  

Long

BZ 80-72 T61 60.80 60.85 TR/BOF  
BZ 60.44-.31 T60.67 39 45-31 TR/BOF  

Red flag levels – Short trades 60.29 Long trades 61.50

30th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

30th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Retail Sales 0855 Ger Unemploy 1000 EZ CPI
1230 EZ Draghi 1315 ADP NF Prod 1445 Chicago PMI
1500 US Pending Home 1530 Crude Month End

Weekly Summary – Up week with up close


Previous Day – Range day with strong up close

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 3D Up/Down back to within 30D

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, hold 46-26, bac 62.36

15min – Neutral TR, bac of bal was bearish, return into bal is neutral, a bac of bal hi @ 62.08 will be bullish. Poss bull trap at 62.14

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY NOTE
SZ 62.11-62.36 61.75 62.15 62.05-36 TR/BOF  

Long

BZ 61.12-60.88 T61.40 60.98 61.06-60.88 TR  

LTF

Short

SZ 62.00-08 T85 T75 62.03 61.99-62.08 TR/BOF  
SZ 62.14-.21 T62.00 62.14 62.12-21 BOF/TR  

Long

BZ 62.80-70 T94 61.75 78-70 TR  
BZ 50-33 T75 61.50 52-33 TR/BOF  

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.36 Long trades 61.26

29th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

29th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 Fr GDP 1300 GER CPI 1330 US GDP
1500 US Consum Conf    

Weekly Summary – Up week with up close


Previous Day – ID x 2 bac, with gap up with neutral up close, into d.sz (lo at 61.48)

General Bias SC = -1

Rot Bias 3/30 Up +

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp to hold, 46-26 and bac 62.36, bull trap at 62.13

15min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 61.65/62.08 for dir, bull trap @ 14-20, bear trap at 61.60-.48

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT ENT ZONE ENTRY NOTE
SZ 62.11-62.36 61.60 62.15 62.05-36 TR/BOF  

Long

BZ 61.12-60.88 T61.40 60.98 61.06-60.88 TR  

LTF

Short

SZ 61.98-62.05 T85 62.03 61.99-62.08 TR/BOF  
SZ 62.14-.21 T62.00 62.14 62.12-21 BOF/TR WATCH FOR SEC TR OFF BOF OF 62.08

Long

BZ 62.70-65 T61.90 61.70 61.75-65 TR  
BZ 61.59-48 T61.70 61.50 61.56-48 TR/BOF WATCH FOR SEC TR OFF BOF OF 65

Red flag levels – Short trades 62.36 Long trades 61.26

28th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

28th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 EZ Draghi    

Weekly Summary – Up week with up close


Previous Day – ID x 2 hi @61.59/61.72 lo 60.88/60.31

General Bias SC = 2

Rot Bias 3/30 Down +

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, weak, poss bull trap in play, price bac of 61.40 into sz 61.56-73 and return to bal poc and then close above 61.40, bac of 61.25 poss tst of 14/00/88

15min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 61. 60/61.25 for dir

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.89-62.36 T 61.54 62.15 62.07 TR  
SZ 61.50-72 T61.40 72-66 61.59 TR/BOF  

Long

BZ 61.03- 60.88 T 60.24 / 61.40 88-95 00-04 TR/BOF  
BZ 59.70-59.46 T59.98 59.57 71 TR  

LTF

Short

CONFL 61.80-95 T54 90 80 TR  
SZ 61.54-66 T40 60-66 55 BOF/TR  

Long

BZ 61.33-25 T40 25-28 30 BOF/TR  
14-03 T25 04 12 TR

Red flag levels – Short trades 61.73 TILL 62.90 Long trades 60.88

Weekly Trading Review – Well, that escalated quickly!

Weekly Trading Review – Well, that escalated quickly!

Weekly Trading Review 21-25 November


Summary of Performance

Overall a poor performance with nothing much to write home about.

So a bit of a temporary setback with my trading. But before I start panicking, it is one poor week and before I beat myself up, it is has to be put in context. This is my first down week in a few months.

But drilling down there are 3 main issues with this week.

I am going to list the issues and then go through why I think I had them issues, and finally what I am going to do about it.

1) Over trading. Big increase in the number of trades this week.

2) Drop in quality in the trades. Average trade this week was a C.

3) Increase in errors.

I did not follow my processes, which lead me to taking more poor quality signals, which lead to an increase in errors and I then indulged in a bit of revenge trading, which of course lead to more errors and more poor quality trades and over trading.

The trades that I took that followed my processes where good, with a win rate of 73%, but the shit trades were numerous.

WHY

Why did I not follow my entry process, because I was focusing on the lower time frame too much and not updating my mini plans and journal, which both have measures to stop me from making the above errors.

Why did I not follow my analysis and mini plan routine. Complacency and I was being very haphazard following my overall daily routine. I did not do my full pre market routine, I was not taking breaks, I was not keeping myself hydrated, I was not exercising.

Why was I not following my daily routine. I was over sleeping every morning just a little bit, but this then put pressure on my morning routine, which then set me up for not following my routines.

Why was I over sleeping. Struggle to drag myself out of bed because I am very tired.

Why I am tired, because the number of hours I put in to this, is only kept in check with taking proper breaks and getting the right amount of good quality sleep.

Why am I not getting the right amount of good quality sleep, because I am not going to bed early enough to get the right amount of sleep.

What am I going to do about this

It all comes down for me, to routine and process. I let one slip and the knock-on effect escalates into poor performance.

1) Ensure that I am in bed so that I get a minimum of 7 hours sleep. As per my normal routine.

2) Ensure that I am up promptly, so that I can completely my pre market routine completely without being rushed.

3) Ensure that I take breaks, exercise and keep hydrated during the day to ensure that decision fatigue does not become a problem, resulting in breaking routine / process and the inevitable poor outcome.

Summary, the hard work I have done to find an edge and find the best process to manage that edge is not thrown away by one week of poor performance. But it will be thrown away, by not keeping to the best practises, that I know that makes me profitable.

25th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

25th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK GDP 1330 US GTB 1445 US PMI

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong close


Previous Day – Neutral Range ID with neutral close hi 61.40/61.72 lo 60.88/60.31

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Down +

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 61.40/60.88 for dir

15min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 61.40/60.88 for dir

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.89-62.36 T 61.54 62.15 62.15 TR  
SZ 61.50-72 T61.28 61.66 61.55 BL  

Long

BZ 60.15-159.98 T60.28 00-96 06 TR  
BZ 59.70-59.46 T59.98 59.57 71 TR  

LTF

Short

CONFL 80-95 T54 90 80 TR  
SZ 61.28-40 T14 T07 33 40 BOF/TR  

Long

LOW 88 T07 t14 33 40 BOF/TR  
BZ 60.80-70 T96 77 80 TR
BZ 60.46-30 T60 37 44 BL@37 TR@44

Red flag levels – Short trades 61.73 TILL 62.90 Long trades 60.32

24th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger GDP 0900 GER IFO 1200 GER CONS CLIM

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong close


Previous Day – Neutral Range day with weak down close

General Bias SC = 0

Rot Bias 3/30 Down +

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, bac of BZ, for t/c to down. Looking for LH (poss 61.20) bac 60.70 and bac of 60.31.

15min – Neutral TR, rej of 60 bz, bac of 15sz, and at prev bal low, for cont, down hold 60.20-30 bac 60.70, for cont up bac 61.20 for t 61.49

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.89-62.36 T 61.54 62.15 62.15 TR  
SZ 61.50-72 T61.28 61.66 61.55 BL  

Long

BZ 60.15-159.98 T60.28 00-96 06 TR  
BZ 59.70-59.46 T59.98 59.57 71 TR  

LTF

Short

CONFL 80-95 T54 90 80 TR  
BOF 61.19 T00 T86 18 16 TR  

Long

BPB 61.19 T44 T54 20 25 TR BAC RRT
BZ 60.80-70 T96 77 80 TR
BZ 60.46-30 T60 37 44 BL@37 TR@44

Red flag levels – Short trades 61.73 TILL 62.90 Long trades 60.32

23rd Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

23rd Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0830 Ger PMI 0900 EZ PMI 1035 Ger Auc  
1330 US Durable Goods 1500 US New Home 1530 US Crude 1900 Fomc

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong close


Previous Day – Bac of id with up day with strong up close.D.SZ 61.89-62.50(63.19)

General Bias SC = 0

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp to hold 60.69-60 (bo @97-90) and bac 61.58 for sz 61.89-62.36

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 61.28-17 bac 61.58

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.89-62.36 T 61.54 62.15 62.15 TR  
BOF 61.54 T 61 55 40 TR IP?

Long

BPB 61-60.90 T61.25 90 00 BL  
           

LTF

Short

CONFL 80-95 T54 90 80 TR  
SZ 61.47-58 T25 54 45 TR  

Long

BZ 28-17 T45 21 25 TR/BOF
P.HI/CONFL 61.09 T18-21 T35 09 12 TR  

Red flag levels – Short trades bac 62.58 TILL 62.90 Long trades 60.90 TILL 60.75

22nd Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

22nd Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1100 UK Ind Trend 1500 US Existing Home Sales  

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong close


Previous Day – ID hi @ 60.97/61.09 l 60.50/59.98

General Bias SC = 0

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, C.Pbip, for cont, exp hold 45-30, bac 61.09. bull/bear trap at 61.09/60.50 trade with the bac direction.

15min – Neutral, bac 60.96/60.69 for dir, watch for bof.

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.17-54 T 95 T 65 29 20 BL  
BOF 61.54 T 61 55 40 TR  

Long

BOF 60.50 T70 T80 50 57 BL  
BZ 60.16-00 T35 T53 05 12 TR WAIT FOR LTF TRIGGER

LTF

Short

BOF 60.97 T80 93 97 TR  
BOF 61.09 T80 29 26 TR  

Long

BOF 60.69 T80 T 94 69 NA TR
BZ 60.45-30 T50 35 38 BL  

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 61.09 TILL 61.27 For long trades 60.30

21st Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1040 Ger Auct 1300 US Fischer 1600 EZ Draghi

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong close

Previous Day – Range up day with strong close hi at 61.09 lo @ 59.98. next d.sz starts ay 61.91

General Bias SC = 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral, bac of sz @160.63 but LH and close bac, bac of 60.96/60.35 for direction

15min – Neutral, bac 60.96/60.35 for dir

IDS

Short

LEVEL E.TARGET PENT LEP ENTRY NOTE
SZ 61.17-54 T 95 T 65 29 20 BL SEE LTF
BOF 61.55 T 61 55 40 TR

Long

BZ 60.45-34 T62 T80 35 43 BL
BZ 60.16-00 T35 T53 05 12 TR WAIT FOR LTF TRIGGER

LTF

Short

SZ 60.96-61.09 T85 09 04 TR
BOF 61.09 T85 29 26 TR LTF SZ IN HTF ZONE, TAKE ONE

Long

BOF 60.62 T77 T 94 62 70 TR
BPB 60.85 T00 85 90 TR IMP BAC + RTST

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 61.09 TILL 61.27 For long trades 59.99