Weekly Trading Review 3-7th October
you ok down there? move the wheelchair off your face if you can hear us… pic.twitter.com/MrZaJ2Uzoo
— forest fr1ends (@forest_fr1ends) September 9, 2016
An up week with under the typical average number of trades and below the minimum expected return for my system, which takes into account the typical variance over time.
Overall, an under performance this week.
Looking though my trades, 2 issues stand out. My trade management and missed trades. I will discuss this in more depth in the sections below.
To take an average of A trades across the week, and to take an average of 16 trades per week (if the opportunities arise).
My average grade dropped to B across the week. The problem was with trade management which also ties in with my under performance compared to my expected return.
I took 15 trades which is slightly under the typical average, and there were 5 trades missed. Out of these 5 trades, 3 trades I could have taken. One trade I chickened out of and the others, I did not have orders in (I should have as these where strong levels).
Last week Goal
To improve the amount of sleep I was getting, to enable me to stay focused longer in the market.
This went well, I ensured that the majority of nights, I had at least 1.5 hrs between trading related activities and me hitting the sack. I was getting off to sleep a lot quicker.
I still need to work on getting to bed slightly earlier, but a few things cropped this week which interfered with that. But that should not be a problem this week.
What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?
Focus and routine where a lot better, the better quality sleep helped. I felt a lot more in tune with the market, my hypo and context. My mini plans where clear and with defined trades and targets.
Happy with that side.
Felt I was back on form with this side of the trading. Which is the first whole week, I have felt that since my break.
What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?
I had 2 issues this week. Trade management and missed trades. The trade management has 2 sides to it. One side ties in with the missed trades and the other is more of an adjustment to my trading process.
Trade Management Issue 1
The first issue is that, it is becoming clear that my current trade management scheme for trades off the bigger levels, i.e levels that are on the 60min and Daily, are not allowing the trades enough room to breathe. Current trade management is once the first scale has been hit then to trail the stop until the second target is hit.
A breakeven trade for me is any trade that is stopped out with a return between -0.4r to +0.4r. Which tends to be trades that hit the first scale and then the 2nd position gets taken out before it hits the second target.
The stats show that a lot of my breakeven trades, that are off levels that are designated 60mins plus, go on to hit the second target.
I will be experimenting with a looser trade management scheme on trades, that are off these bigger levels. Basically not trailing the stop until the evolving risk to return drops to under 0.5 return against risk.
Trade Management Issue 2 and Missed Trades
My second management problem ties in with the missed trades. All my trades that where less than an A grade where due to breaking my trade management rules (which is different to the above, I followed the rules in those cases).
The missed trades which I could have taken, are due to not having orders at levels when I should have.
What is the problem?
I am getting out of trades due to reading the order flow off the DOM, and not letting the trade play out.
Why do I have this problem?
Last time I spoke to FT71, he told me that my trading style is trading not to lose, rather than a play to win mindset. This has been something I have been working on ever since.
Whilst I have made improvements on this side, it is still a weak area of my trading. I am certainly not maximising my performance.
It is embarrassing to even discuss this again in my blog, as I feel my progress is glacier at times on this side.
Of course it ties in with my fear of loss. I currently have a survivor’s mentality, where the focus is minimising the downside rather than a winner’s attitude where the focus is on maximising the upside.
The survivor’s mentality is of particular use, when the outcome can result in injury or death, but not so much when the worst can happen is that I lose money.
What I am going to do?
1) I am going ensure that there is always one long and one short order in at the next applicable level. And if there are not filled on the first test then they cannot be pulled until a second test or price hits the target without me. I used to do this, but stopped on after one bad experience. The stupid thing is that I have a system in place to minimize this happening again, but doing the orders has slipped from my routine.
2) If the trade is off a 60min plus level then once I have been filled, I will then close the lower timeframe chart and cover the DOM and manage the trade on the 15min chart, at least until we get within a few ticks of the target.
FT71 suggested I do this but I could never bring myself to do it.
But after collecting stats on the consequences of not managing my trades correctly, i.e that the amount of return I have left on the table, obviously taking into account the losers, is making a stand out case of needing to get make more improvements on this side.
What am I going to practice on?
This weekend I will practise on replay, a minimum of 2 order flow setups from the order flow practice group, 2 flow trades and 2 trades off the 60min levels, with entry off the Dom and management on the 15min.