US Non-Farm Payrolls Tradeplan – Oct 7th

Calendar

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 249k

1 SD Range for the last 6 months is 81k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Overall trend is down, the over 250 numbers have dropped off with a 150k number last month.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

Would want to see above 150k and above 250k to indicate a uptrend in numbers.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 170k

Between 130k to 210k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

90 to 129k would be a miss. 211 to 250 would be a beat.

Below 90k would be a big miss and above 250k would be a big beat.

Notes – Out of the Last 10 NFPs’

In 4 cases, the low was made by 1345

In 6 cases, the high was made by 1345

The one side of the extreme has been in place by 1345

If the number has been <=160 (4) then High has been made by 1345 (3)

If the number has been >= 215 (6) then Low has been made by 1345 (5)

If the number was less than exp (5) then the high was made by 1345 (4) and the one that did not was a big miss -130k others range was -30k to -70k

If the number was more than exp (5) then the low was made by 1345 (5)

What is Range Profile on the Bund in ticks

Last 60 NFP

Last 12 NFP

VAH90 93 111
VAH70 68 64
VAL70 14 37
MODE 53 27

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins


Daily


64.72-86

SZ

52

O/N HI

64. 30

SESS HI

CP
63.69

VAL

63.56

GAP

63.29-20

BZ

63.04

LOW

62.77-57

BZ

Hypo NFP EXP = 170K

EXP = If number is less than exp (170) then trade bias is down Inline or Slight Miss/Beat

130k > and < 210k

If number is greater than exp (170) then trade bias is up
IM/SM IM – Move down

SM – continuation with new extreme or failure to continue

Exp for High to be in by 1345.

IM – Move up

SM – continuation with new extreme or failure to continue

Exp for Low to be in by 1345.

Exec 1. Any up move should be faded on test of FTB level or BOF of sig Hi (stops triggered).

2. On IM move down then join on 50% PB – Blind

3. Join at Fresh LTF zone for test of extreme and extension

4. If number is between 130 and 210 then look for fade opportunity of bof of new extreme.

Look to fade any FTC or Bof at new extremes or D.Hi or D.Lo 1. Any down move should be faded on test of FTB level or BOF of sig Lo (stops triggered).

2. On IM move up then join on 50% PB – Blind

3. Join at Fresh LTF zone for test of extreme and then extension

4. If number is between 130 and 210 then look for fade opportunity of bof of new extreme.

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