1st Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

1st Nov 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Man Pmi 1345 US Man Pmi 1400 US Man PMI
1530 Us Auction

Stats

DATR 0.77+

WATR 1.75+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – ERC Down week with bac of Brexit Bal wbar 50. 63.28

Previous Day – NR Inside day bac/bof of 62.32/61.95 for dir

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, CPB.ip , for cont, exp hold 62.34-54 bac 61.34

15min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 62.32/61.95 for direction. Poss Bull trap of 62.32 at SZ 40-54

Neutral Hypo – If price holds / bof 32/37 or 48-54 then shorts t 23-17 bac 17 t 03-95; if price holds /bof 03-95 then longs t 17 t2 25

Short Hypo – if price bac 94 then shorts on pb 95-03 t 72-68 (watch for bof) bac 68 t 5r0-38 (watch for bof)

Long Hypo – if price bac 32 then longs on pb to 25-17 t 45-54; watch for bof. Bac 54 54 t 80 t2 ext 96-99

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.54 till 96 For long trades bac 61.38 till 60.95

31st Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

31st Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Retail Sales 1000 EZ CPI 1230 US PCE
1345 US Chig PMI Month End

Stats

DATR 0.77+

WATR 1.75+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – ERC Down week with bac of Brexit Bal wbar 50. 63.28

Previous Day – Range up day with up close

General Bias SC = -1

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, Pbip, for cont, exp hold 31-54 bac 61.37

15min – Neutral TR, in bal, bac 62.28/61.37 for direction. Watch for BOF

Neutral Hypo – If price holds / bof 43-54 then shorts t 18 t2 07 bac 07 t 85; if price holds/bof 72-68 then longs t 85 t2 07-18

Long Hypo – if price bac 54 then longs t 80 t2 96-02 t3 11-20

Short Hypo – if price bac 68 then shorts t 51-38 (watch for bof) bac 38 t 26 t2 08-95

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 54 till 96 For long trades bac 38 till 61.95

27th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

27th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK GDP 1330 US Core Goods 1500 US Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Up week back into VA, T 64.78

Previous Day – ERC down day with d.50% @ 51 (tbc)

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, for cont, exp hold 63.90-64.18 bac 80 @ 60.bz (ftb)

15min – Short Bias TR, for cont, exp to hold 24-36 bac 88

Neutral Hypo – If price holds / bof 88-81 then longs t 00 t13; if price holds 36 then shorts t24 t13

Long Hypo – if price bac 24 longs t 36, bac 36 t 49; if price holds 49-55 then shorts; bac 55 then longs t 67-71

Short Hypo – if price bac 89 then short t 80 (watch for bof) bac 80 t 70 t 56 (watch for bof)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63.55 till 70 For long trades bac 62.81

26th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

26th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Cons Clim 1035 Ger Auc 1330 US Good Trade Bal
1445 US Ser PMI 1500 US New Home Sales 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Up week back into VA, T 64.78

Previous Day – BEOB, down day, held 50%, for cont holds 64.16 and bac 63.71

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Short TR, for cont, exp to hold 89-07 and bac 63.71

15min – Short Bias TR, for cont, exp to hold 89 and bac 63.71

Short Hypo – if price holds 89-92 then shorts t 73 bac 71 then shorts t 64 t2 50; if price holds 50-42 then longs t 71 (ids), bac 42 then shorts t 30-24, watch for bof at 24

Neutral Hypo – if price bof 71 then longs t 89-92, bac 92 t 00-07; if price holds or bof 00-07 then shorts t 85

Longs Hypo – if price bac 07 then t 16 (watch for bof at 16) bac 16 then longs t 30-40

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.16 For long trades bac 63.24

25th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

25th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 Ger IFO 1500 US Cb Cons Conf

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Up week back into VA, T 64.78

Previous Day – BEOB, hold 64.54 bac 63.86 for s.bias t 163.54-.50

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Tr, bac of bz, back at prev bal VH, so decision point. For /t to short and test of poc/vl of bal bac and hold 80

15min – Short Bias TR, for cont, exp hold 04-12 bac 86

Weekly Poc And Bal Vh at 80 so possible rejection point.

Short Hypo – if price holds 4-12 then shorts t 86-80 bac 80 then shorts t 70 t2 50 t2 43 bac 43 t 30-24 (watch for bof); if price holds 50-43 then longs t 80 or if price holds bof 24 t 50 t2 80

Neutral Hypo – if price holds/bof 86/60 then longs t 04-12 bac 12 t 25 t30-38; if price holds 30-38 then shorts t 10-04

Longs Hypo – if price bac 38 then longs t 52-54 bac 54 t 68-78

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.54 For long trades bac 63.24

24th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0830 Ger PMI 0900 EZ PMI 1400/05 US Fomc members

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Up week back into VA, T 64.78

Previous Day – NR ID bac 64.33 t 64.67-78 t 65.00

General Bias SC = 1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont exp hold 96-85 (bal.hi/vah) and bac of 34.

Possible 60.bull trap at 34 as minor sz at 42-52

15min – Neutral TR, bal.hi 34 lo at 04, for dir bac 34/04

Possible 15.bull trap at 34 with 15min sz at 42-52

Possible 15.bear trap at 04 with 96-85 bal hi and 15min bz

Neutral Hypo – if price holds /bof 34 or holds 42-52 then shorts t 30 t2 25 bac 25 t 14; if price holds/bof 04 or holds 96-85 (IDS) then longs t 04 t2 14 bac 14 then t 25

Long Hypo – if price bac 34 then longs t 42 t2 52 if bac 52 then longs t 62 t3 68-78; if price holds 68-78 then shorts t 34 (IDS)

Short Hypo – if price bac 04 then shorts t 96-85, bac 85 then shorts t 74-70 bac 70 t 55-50 t2 44; if price holds 55-44 then longs t 70 t2 85 (IDS)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.52 For long trades bac 63.24

Weekly Trading Review – Calculating…

Weekly Trading Review – Calculating…

Weekly Trading Review 17-21th October

Not much to report on this week.

Performance

An underperforming up week. Still having problems with micro management issues.

Overall Goals

My goal of increasing the number of trades I take, if there are valid opportunities, was missed again, but orders where placed and there was quite a few no fills again.

My average grade is A, so am improvement over the last couple of weeks. Still managed an A even with micro management issues, so the other aspects of the trades where good.

General Notes

4 errors this week. 2 minor, and 2 were micro management issues.

Money left on table is an average of 8 ticks for every trade that I have micro management issues on.

There was 7 trades I did not take. 5 where unclear entries but my gut was saying that these were good areas to take a trade. I am tracking these sort of trades over time to see if my gut instinct has an edge in these situations.

2 trades I chicken out on due to the strength of the move. I left my balls at home.

Out of the 7 no fills, 2 where shit happens trades and I just did not get filled. The other 5 are being included in the sample, see below.

Last week Goal

The main goal of last week was to manage the 60min level trades off the 15min chart and to ensure that correct targets where placed and managed correctly.

How did I do

Overall pretty shite. Cannot stick to the intraday swing rules, I keep managing everything as a scalp, and finding grey areas in the process allowing me at the time to wriggle out of this.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Good focus and good process. Slightly distracted by social media and lots of messages and emails asking questions but overall managed to maintain a good focus.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

The micromanagement issue is not improving. So I have taken the following steps.

1. I have written clear rules that focus only on 2 types of setups off the 60min level. If I still have issues, then I will reduce that to one.

My thinking here is that I just have to start doing it. Once I start doing it on one setup, it will be easier to turn that into a habit on all relevant setups.

2. I discussed with Tom Dante, some practical physical ways to approach this. And I have included them in my grading system, so that if I do not follow them then I get downgraded. I also have to note in my trading journal as whether I followed these physical ways, so I can track that whether I am doing them when I said I would. And if I don’t, Tom gets to phone me up and call me a cunt. Brucie Bonus.

The other major thing is the missed trades and no fills. But as I mention last week, I am tracking my no fills with reference to where I place my order and where I get filled.

I am also doing individual trade reviews of the no fills, with playback, looking at the order flow and re analysing the whole trade.

I started doing this last week. It is very time consuming and boring but already it is has shown some interesting areas to investigate further, which should pay off in reducing no fills.

weekly trade review

But before any decisions can be taken I need more data.

I will continue to review and analyse all the no fill trades and record that information.

I am will continue the deliberate practise but reduce the order flow setups and include the intraday swing trades as part of my deliberate practise. This will be difficult to do, as these trades take up to 2 hours to play out, if I speed up the session replay then I am not deliberating practising the patience. So I will experiment with the settings, but the max I will go to is 2x speed.

Still implementing and still collecting data.

Calculating…….

21st Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ Buba 1515 US Tarullo

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – Downside t done. Upday with strong up close

General Bias SC = 1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, bac of bal; for cont exp to hold bal hi 96-85 and bac 64.34

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 10 or 04-90 bac 34

Long Hypo – if price holds 12-04 then longs t 24 t2 33 t43-52 (watch for bof) bac 52 t 62-69

Neutral Hypo -if price holds/bof 33 then shorts t 24 t2 12/10 bac t04 t2 96-90; if price holds/bof 96-90 then longs t 10 t2 26

Short Hypo – if price bac 90 then shorts t 80 t2 71-60

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.52 For long trades bac 63.24

20th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

20th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 0930 UK Retail Sales 1245 EZ IR
1330 US Job Claims 1330 EZ Prezzer

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – d.t1 done, with upday with weak bull close D.Pinbar hold 64.04 bac 63.71 for s.bias T 63.50 t2 63.20

General Bias SC = -2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, but @ top of 60 bal, with bof in play, t 71 t2 50, but for cont, exp hold / bof 71 and bac 64.04

15min – Short TR, for cont, exp hold 86-96 and bac 71

Short Hypo – if price hold 86-96 then shorts t 71; bac 71 t2 56-50 bac 50 t 43 bac 43 t 36-30 (watch for bof)

Neutral Hypo – if price bof 71 or 56-44 then longs t (71) t 85-96, holds 85-96 then shorts t 71

Long Hypo – if price bac 04 then longs t 20-26 (watch for bof)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.04 For long trades bac 63.30 till 62.80

19th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th Oct 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Av Earn 1035 Ger Bund Auc 1330 US Build Permits
1345 US Williams 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.66+

p.WK.50% 64.78

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Bof of Range in play. ERC down with strong down close followed by normal range down week with strong down t 163.04 t2 162.57

Previous Day – Up day with strong up close, d.t1 63.90 then bac 96 t2 64.86

General Bias SC = +1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 56-42 bac 96

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 51-42 bac 85

Neutral Hypo – if price holds 80 or 90/96 (bof then shorts t 77 t2 50-42, it price holds 50-44 then longs t 77 t2 90-96

Long Hypo – if price bac 96 then longs t 20-26 bac 266 (watch for bof) t 38

Shorts Hypo – if price bac 44 t 30 t2 15 bac t 00-95

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 96 For long trades bac 62.81