30th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Retail 0745 Fr CPI 1000 EZ CPI
1330 US Core PCE 1445 US Chig PMI 1500 US Mich Cons

Stats

DATR 0.68-

WATR 1.64-

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, followed by up week to top of balance area, bal hi at 65.67/66.12

Previous Day – up day with up close

General Bias SC = 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral TR, C.PB ip, bac 12/27 or 77/60

15min – Long TR, for cont, hold 65.59 bac 19 RF 75-70

Neutral Hypo – if price hold 80-70 then longs t 92-00 t2 12-19; if price hold 12-19 then shorts t 00 t2 80-70

Short Hypo – if price 59 then shorts t53-46 bac 46 t 37-34 t2 26-21

Long Hypo – if price bac 19 t27-35 bac 27 then t 50-56 t2 73-88

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 19 For long trades bac 59

29th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Span CPI 0855 Ger Unemploy 1300 Ger CPI
1330 US GDP 1500 US Pend Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.74-

WATR 1.64-

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, followed by up week to top of balance area, bal hi at 65.67/66.12

Previous Day – ID and BOF still in play, bac 65.75 for cont, bac of 66.27 invalid

General Bias SC = 2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, in bal, bac 66.27 and hold 65.75 for cont

15min – Neutral TR, bac of 65.75/66.19 for direction

Short Hypo – if price holds 90-00 then shorts t 65.75 bac 75 then t 68 t2 53-46 bac 46 t 34 t2 26-21

Neutral Hypo – if price holds/bof 75-68 then longs t 90-00 bac 00 t 12; if price holds 19-27 then shorts 00

Long Hypo – if price bac 27 then longs t 37 t2 50 t3 73-88

Red flag levels – For short trades 66.27 For long trades 65.75 till 46

28th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Cons Clim 1330 US Core Durable 1500 US Yellen
1530 US Crude 1530 EZ Draghi

Stats

DATR 0.74-

WATR 1.64-

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, followed by up week to top of balance area, bal hi at 65.67/66.12

Previous Day – TST of bal / brexit hi at 66.12, with close under, possible bof and return to value 65.02, red flags for bof are bac of y.hi at 27 and bac of 66.50

General Bias SC = 2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, For cont, exp to hold 55-46 bac 66.27

15min – Long TR, C.Pbip, for cont, hold 81-75 bac 12 then 27

Neutral Hypo – if price holds 12-16 or holds/bof 22-27 then shorts t 00 t2 90 t3 81-76; if price holds 81-76 then longs t 00

Long Hypo – if price bac 66.27 then longs t 37 t2 50 bac 50 then t3 73-88

Short Hypo – if price bac 76 then shorts t 68 t2 55-46, bac 46 t 34-21

Red flag levels – For short trades 66.27 For long trades 65.46

26th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 Ger IFO 1430 US Kashkari 1500 US New Home Sales
1605 EZ Draghi

Stats

DATR 0.74-

WATR 1.64-

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, followed by up week to top of balance area, bal hi at 65.67/66.12

Previous Day – ERC up day followed by NR id, hi at 65.28 lo 64.98

General Bias SC = 2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, in minor bal near top of rot, for cont, exp to hold/bof 64.96 and bac 65.32. If bac of 64.96 then PB in play and tst of 94.74 next area of support

15min – Neutral TR, for direction, bac of 28/35 or 64.98 (watch for bof, esp in direction of 60 tr at 64.98)

Long Hypo – if price holds / bof 98 then longs t 65.10 t2 65.20, if price bac 28/32 then longs t 47-55 bac 55 t67 bac 67 t 84

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 28/33 then shorts t 65.20 t2 65.10 t2 64.98; if price holds / bof 64.98 then longs t 65.10 t2 65.20 t3 65.28/33

Short Hypo – if price bac 98 then shorts t 78 t2 74 t2 62-54; if price holds 74-54 then longs t 98

Red flag levels – For short trades 65.67 For long trades 64.54

Weekly Trading Review – Slip Sliding

Weekly Trading Review – Slip Sliding

Weekly Trading Review 19-23rd September

This will be a quick summary of my full weekly trading review. As I have guests staying this weekend, so time is limited.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my plans, my average grade for the trades was A. Though I was down on the average number of trades with an increase in no fills, but that is likely down to FOMC and Thursday. But I will keep an eye on that to see if starts to develop into a trend.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Thursday was a difficult day for my style of trading. No fills on my with-bias trades, and small losses or small wins on my against bias trades, basically the trades would hit the first scale and then take out the second position.

I was running more aggressive targets due to the trend day and very bid market.

I was happy with this, I was following my system and adjusting my style to suit the market.

But then a loss of focus, and 2 poor trades right at the end of the day. Moved the stop on one by 2 ticks, so took a bigger loss and then took a revenge trade.

What is the problem?

The problem was FOMO, I wanted to finish the day on a good note. I was trading my profit and loss rather than the opportunities that where developing.

Why do I have this problem?

Frustration at the no fills going with the bias coupled with the end of a long day of full on focus.

It shows that slips in focus can be costly.

What I am going to do?

I have a set of logical statements, which I read out after each trade, depending on the situation. I track this on my journal to ensure that I reading them out.
Weekly Trading Review

After moving my stoploss 2 ticks, I did not read out the relevant logical statement.

After a losing trade with less than a B grade, I repeat out loud the following

The hard work I have done to find an edge is not destroyed when I take a single bad trade. It is destroyed by trying to win the money back by taking subsequent trades with context and without a plan that do not follow by process.

I know that it sounds a bit silly reading these statements out aloud, but I find that they act as good verbal reminders and help to offset any slippages.

So the moral of this week review is not to get sloppy and stick to the process including the end of trade process which sets up my mindset for the next trade.

23rd Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 EZ FR Man PMI 0830 GER Man PMI 0900 EZ PMI
1445 US Man PMI

Stats

DATR 0.81+

WATR 1.65+

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, bac 64.29 T1 64.72 t 64.92-65.12

Previous Day – Bac of ID, with erc up day with strong close, at daily sz (FTB)

General Bias SC = 2

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, hold 72-56 bac 33

15min – Long TR, for cont, pbip, for cont hold 92 and bac 32

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 27-37 then shorts t 08 t2 92; if price holds /bof 92 then longs t 18 t2 27-32

Long Hypo – if price holds 34 then longs t 47 bac 47 t 58-67

Short Hypo – if price bac 92 then shorts t 80 t2 t2 bac 72 t 62-54

Red flag levels – For short trades 65.67 For long trades 64.56

22nd Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 EZ ECB Bulletin 1330 US Init Jobs 1400 EZ Draghi 1500 US Home sales

Stats

DATR 0.81+

WATR 1.65+

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, bac 64.29 T1 64.72 t 64.92-65.12

Previous Day – ID x 3 with strong up close id.hi at 64.29 and lo at 63.57

General Bias SC = 1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 90 -80 bac 37

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 10-00 bac 37

Long Hypo – if price bac 37 then longs t 52 -58 bac 58 then longs t 74 t2 92-65.12

Neutral Hypo – if price bof 37 then short t 10-00 t2 90-80; if price holds/bof 90-80 then longs t10

Short Hypo – if price bac 80 then shorts t 73 t2 65-60 bac 63 then shorts t 54 t2 47-43

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.29 For long trades bac 63.80

21st Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1530 US Crude 1900 US Fomc

Stats

DATR 0.81+

WATR 1.65+

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, bac 64.29 t 64.92-65.12

Previous Day – ID x 2 with strong up close id.hi at 64.29 and lo at 63.57

General Bias SC = -1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, exp holf 97-87 bac 29

15min – Long TR, for cont, exp hold 64.11 bac 64.29

Long Hypo – if price holds/bof 64.11 then longs t 29 bac 29 then longs t 38 bac 38 t 60 bac 60 t2 75 t3 92-00

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 29-38 then shorts t 64.11; bac 11 then shorts t 63.97-87; if price holds / bof 63.97-87 then longs t 64.11 t 64.29

Short Hypo – if price bac 87 then short s 79 t2 71 t3 63-57

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.29 For long trades bac 63.63

20th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 1330 US Build Permits

Stats

DATR 0.81+

WATR 1.65+

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, bac 64.29 t 65.00

Previous Day – Id id.hi @ 64.11 id.lo @63.63

General Bias SC = -1

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, C.PB ip, for cont of Long Tr, hold 63.29-04 and bac 64.29

15min – Neutral TR, for dir, bac 63.57/10

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 57 then longs t 93 t 00-08 bac 10 t 21/29; if price holds / bof 10 or 29 then shorts t 00 t2 93

Long Hypo – if price bac 29 then longs t 38 bac 48 t 60 bac 60 t2 75 t3 92-00

Short Hypo – if price bac 57 then shorts t 47 t2 29 t 15

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.40 For long trades bac 63.04

19th Sept 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 French Auction

Stats

DATR 0.81+

WATR 1.65+

p.WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – BOF of iw.low, bac 64.29 t 65.00

Previous Day – Range day with neutral up close, close at id.hi 63.93

General Bias SC = 0

Big Picture

60min – Long TR, for cont, hold 63.28-04 bac 64.29

15min – Neutral TR, for dir, bac 63.57/08

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 68-57 then longs t 93 t 00-08 bac 08 t 21/29; if price holds / bof 21/29 then shorts t 00

Long Hypo – if price bac 29 then longs t 38 bac 48 t 60 bac 60 t2 75 t3 92-00

Short Hypo – if price bac 57 then shorts t 47 t2 29 t 15

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.40 For long trades bac 63.04