18th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

18th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 FR Auc

Stats

DATR 0.92

WATR 1.85+

WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Down week back into iw range. Strong down close.

Previous Day – Bac of ID to downside with erc day and strong bear close, exp for cont lo. 65.95

General Bias – SC -2

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to hold 66.84 and bac 66.95

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to hold 66.39 and bac 66.95

Bear Hypo – if price holds/bof 26(y.low) or 32-43 then shorts t 15 t2 95 bac 95 t 85-80 t2 63-51

Neutral Hypo – if price holds/bof 95-85 then longs t 26 t2 39 bac 39 then longs t 56-64; if price holds 56-64 then shorts t 39 -t2 26

Bull Hypo – if price bac 64 then longs t 75-84

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 43 and 84 For long trades 66.95 and 51

Winning but still scared – Weekly Trading Review

Winning but still scared – Weekly Trading Review

Weekly Trading Review 11th to 15th July

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

My goal for increasing trading activity whilst staying with my rules, has been hit for 4 weeks in a row. But comparing this against the number of missed trades, there still room, for improvement.

I am using the following methods to increase my trading activity without taking lower probability trades.

First, I am working on increasing the amount of time I can stay focused. This has improved though the following

  1. Taking regular small breaks, basically after every 25 mins, I tend to take about 5 mins breaks.
  2. Spending less time discussing the market in the Stage 5 chatroom. Whilst it is an excellent room, where there is good focus on the markets and good discussions. I do find that it detracts from my overall focus.
  3. Having 2 cups of Bulletproof coffee per day. One at the start of the AM session and the second at the start of the PM session.
  4. Not relaxing after having a winning trade, I do this to avoid giving back profits but overall limits the amount I trade. I have improved on this. But I have found it is accumulative emotion the better I do in one day the harder it is to continue.

    With every winning trade, I become more risk adverse and with every winning day the harder it is to continue in the same vein the next day. See below, in what I did badly, for more on this.

  5. Updating my mini plan all thru the day, helps keep me focused, even when price is far from my areas of interest, and even if the plan comes out very similar to the previous plan. It helps me to stay in the game rather than slip into auto pilot and start getting distracted.

Secondly, defining my 2 markets, the Bund and Stoxx, into Primary and Secondary

Primary Market is where I trade all the levels from my context charts down to the execution charts. (Daily,60min,15min,3min) and trade levels that are blind and require triggers.

Secondary market where I trade only the levels that require blind entries from the Daily, 60min and 15min.

Though I do need to check price action and structure before I let these orders be filled, and I sometimes do not notice that price is trading close to the area, as I completely focused on stalking a trade in another market.

Therefore, I need to make more use of the alert system on my platform, so that when price comes near I can do a quick check whether I want to leave the order in or pull it.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

My no fill problem is becoming less of a problem in most aspects, more of them are set at the correct buffer but I am still having problems switching to market orders from limit orders on trigger / order flow.

But having collected a sample of 90 trades, the bigger problem is missed trades due to lack of focus or fear of loss. That is the lower hanging fruit at the moment. I will come back to the trigger / order flow problem later. One step at a time.

What is the problem

That after each winning trade and after the each winning day the desire to skip trades becomes more and more pronounced.

Why do I have this problem?

As always it comes back to fear. Fear of Loss. In this case fear of giving money back. This constant theme in my reviews of the 2 fears is starting to get on my tits.

If I could just banish this then it would be great, but it seems not to be the case. So I just have to identify the situations that this rears its head and get on with it with finding solutions.

What I am going to do

I have logical statements that I am meant to read aloud after each winning trade and one that I read aloud after each losing trade. When I do read these aloud, I find that it helps, but I have noticed that I sometimes skip this step, especially after a winning trade.

I think this is my sub conscious sabotaging my methods to improve, so it can stay in the comfort zone. A desire not to do the things that we help me. Well fuck that shit.

So I am adding a tracking column to my trading journal where I will track whether I am reading the correct logical statement after each trade. It will be binary either it is the correct one or it isn’t.

weekly trading review

I know that I respond better to tracking stuff so this should help.

A second prong of attack is that I have re written my setups cheat sheet, so rather than having one for blind entries, one for trigger entries and one for exits. I have just one for entries and one for exits.

This means that I stripped even more of the discretionary side out of the setups.

I have made it even more black and white between what is a blind or trigger entry level and stripped down the trigger to 5 criteria, where 2 have to be present for me to take the trade.

So there should be less discretion between the 2 types of entry and less discretion in what I am looking for when entering on a trigger.

15th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

15th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ CPI 1300 UK CARNEY 1330 US CPI/RETAIL

Stats

DATR 0.92

WATR 1.83

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – break up of inside week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ID Bof of lo at 66.32, with neutral down close id.hi at 67.37/67.47

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp hold 90-17 bac 26 PBip (t/c?)

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp hold 66.58 bac 77

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof holds 93-01 or 67.10-17 then shorts shorts t 80 t2 70; if price holds 41-26 then longs t 70 t2 80

Bull Hypo – if price bac 17 then longs t 24 t2 37 t3 47

Bear Hypo – if price bac 26 then shorts t 19 t2 09bac 09 t 85

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 37 then 47 For long trades 66.74

14th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

14th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1200 BOE IR/QE 1330 US Core PPI

Stats

DATR 0.92

WATR 1.83

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – break up of inside week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ID with strong up close id.hi @67.47 id.lo at 66.32

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, bac 1 x sz, back at prev iw.hi and prev id.lo. For t/c to long bias bac holds 89-74 and bac 37 then 47

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp hold 16-08 bac 37

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof holds 37 or 47 then shorts t 25 t2 16-08, bac 08 t 03-96 t2 89-74l if price holds 89-74 then longs t 03-00 t12

Bull Hypo – if price holds 16-08 then longs t 25 t2 30-37 bac 37 then longs t 47-56 bac 47 then t2 66-76

Bear Hypo – if price bac 74 then shorts t 62 t2 45-32

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 37 then 47 For long trades 66.74

13th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745/0800 Fr/Sp CPI 0900 It CPI 1000 Ez Ind Prod
1035 Bund Auction 1330 US Ex/Im Price Index 1530 Us Crude

Stats

DATR 0.89-

WATR 1.83

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – break up of inside week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ID breakdown with erc.v with strong down close. MM t 66.23

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp hold 84-03 and bac 66.32

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp hold 52-60 and bac 66.32

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 32-23 then longs t 54-60 bac 60 T 84-03, if price hold 84-03(94) then shorts t 60 t 40 t32

Bear Hypo – if price holds 54-60 then shorts t 41-32 bac 32 t11 t2 85 t3 70-52

Bull Hypo – if price bac 03 then longs t 24-35

Red flag levels – For short trades 67.03 For long trades 66.03

12th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger CPI 1000 UK Carney 1415/35 FOMC Members

Stats

DATR 0.89-

WATR 1.83

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – break up of inside week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ID with bear close, id.lo 67.36 id.hi 68.13

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, for t/c to short bias, bac 67.25, t/c to long bac 68.13

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp hold 64-74 bac 36

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 36-25 then longs t 58 t2 68-76, if price holds 68-76 then shorts t 50

Bear Hypo – if price bac 25 then shorts t19 t 06-97 ext t3 72 -62

Bull Hypo – if price bac 76 then longs t 89-94 t 03-14

Red flag levels – For short trades 68.13 For long trades 67.25

11th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

TBA Eurogroup Meet 1500 FOMC George

Stats

DATR 0.92-

WATR 1.83

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – break up of inside week with strong bull close

Previous Day – Up day with strong bull close

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp hold 79-67 bac 13

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp hold 90-85 bac 13

Bull Hypo – if price holds 90-85 or 79-67 then longs t 94 t2 13 bac 13 t26 t42 t3 50/datr

Neutral Hypo – if price holds/bof 68.13 then shorts t 90-85 t 79-64, if price holds / bof 79-64 then longs t 90 t 2 13

Bear Hypo – if price bac 67 then shorts t 55-50 bac 50 t 42 -37

Red flag levels – For short trades 68.13 For long trades 67.25

US Non-Farm Payrolls Trade plan – July 8th

US Non-Farm Payrolls Trade plan – July 8th

Calendar

 
 

 
 

Historical Performance

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

What is the Range and 1 SD?

 
 

Number range for last 6 months is 254k

 
 

1 SD Range for the last six months is 81k.

 
 

Is there a trend in the data?

 
 

Therefore, since Oct 2014 slight downtrend.

 
 

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

 
 

250k plus would be a possible change in trend.

 
 

What would be a big beat/miss?

 
 

Exp is for 175k.

Below 110k would be a big miss and above 240k would be a big beat.

110 to 155k would be a miss. 195 to 240 would be a beat.

Between 155k to 195k. Would treat as inline / slight beat miss.

 
 

What is Range Profile on the Bund

 
 

  

Last 65 NFP

Last 12 NFP

VAH90

93

111

VAH70

71

76

VAL70

14

24

MODE

55

76

 
 

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

 
 

Bund

 
 

240 mins

Daily

 
 


 
 

  

 
 


 
 

  

 
 

Average Hourly Earnings

 
 

 
 

Range 0.6

SD 0.2

 
 

Expected 0.2%

Big miss or Big Beat is greater than 0.2 either way.

 
 

Previous miss/beat of 0.2 or under have not really effected the typical NFP range.

 
 

Hypo NFP EXP = 175K

 
 

EXP =

Big Miss < 110k

Miss 110-155k

Inline or Slight Miss/Beat

155k > and < 190k

Beat

190-214k

Big Beat > 214k

IM/SM

IM – Move up to 03-13

SM – Move up to bac 13

IM – Move up to test 03-13

SM – make new extremes past 13 and FTC and return to and return to SOC

IM – (^) Move up to test 03-13 OR (v) move down to test 36-25

SM – fails to make new extreme and return to SOC

 
 

Watch for rot in opps direction to test opposing above extremes

IM – Move down to test 33-24

SM – makes new extremes past 24 and then fails to cont and returns to SOC

IM – Move down to test 33-24

SM – Follow thru to 06-97 and then 83-62

Exec

Join on 50% of IM on blind for test of 03-13

 
 

Join on PBC for bac of 13 till WRH at 59

Join the 50% PB of IM on blind for test of 03-13

 
 

Fade on BOF of extreme

Join the 50% PB of IM on blind for test of 03-13 or 33-25 and then fade the FTC or BOF of extremes on agg order flow

 
 

Once thru SOC after IM/SM looking for opp rot to join for test of opp extreme and then look to fade the FTC

  

Join the 50% PM of IM on blind for test of 33-25

 
 

Fade on BOF of extreme

Join on 50% of IM on blind for T 33-25

 
 

BD of 24 join on pbc for test of 06 and then 83

 
 

Watch order flow after the first 15mins for pot bottom and at 1430

 
 

Notes

 
 

Past 8 out of 10 NFP’s, the low was made by 1430

Past 7 of 10 NFP’s, the low was made by 1345

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 

,

8th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

8th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger TB 0930 UK TB 1330 US NFP

Stats

DATR 1.06-

WATR 1.87

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – inside week, with strong up close w.hi 67.33 w.lo 65.51

Previous Day – Range day with very weak down close

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, hold 19 and bac 79 for t/c to Long bias

15min – Neutral Bias, bac 79 and hold 67.33 for t/c to long bias

Bull Hypo – if price bac 79 then longs t 92-97 t2 04-13 bac 13 t 28 t2 datr

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 79-86 then shorts t 70 t2 58; bac 58 t 45 t2 33-25; if price holds / bof 33-25 then longs t 46 t2 58

Bear Hypo – if price bac 25 then shorts t 19 t2 06-97

Red flag levels – For short trades 68.13 For long trades 67.25

 

7th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

7th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Ind Produ 0930 Uk Man Prod 1230 ECB MPM
1315 US ADP 1600 US Crude

Stats

DATR 1.06-

WATR 1.87

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – inside week, with strong up close w.hi 67.33 w.lo 65.51

Previous Day – Range day with down close

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 67.36 and bac 68.13

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp hold 67.86 and bac 67.58

Bull Hypo – if price bac 86 then longs t 92-97 t2 04-13 bac 13 t 28 t2 datr

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 79-86 then shorts t 70 t2 63-58; bac 58 t 51-45; if price holds / bof 45-36 then longs t 58 t2 70

Bear Hypo – if price bac36 then shorts t 23-19 t2 67.06-66.97

Red flag levels – For short trades 67.33 For long trades 66.62