Weekly Trading Review – Why I Love Tracking Statistics and Gut Instincts.

Weekly Trading Review 18th to 22nd July

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

My goal for increasing trading activity whilst staying with my rules, has been hit for 5 weeks in a row.

But whilst comparing this to my number of missed trades, I am still not making the most of the opportunities. I discussed this in last week’s review and what new processes, I was going to implement this week to improve this element of my trading.

Overall these new processes have helped in the short term especially during the session. One week is not much of a sample to indicate that this has improved on a permanent basis.

So for the next couple of weeks, I am going to continue with my current set of processes, and collect more data. But I am going to make one alteration to the current routine. Which I will explain fully below.

One thing that I love about tracking, is that once the process of collecting data has started, just the fact that I am collecting and monitoring a particular thing, can lead me to start noticing things which would have slipped by me.

One of the reasons, I started collecting data on missed trades, was that I had noticed, that I had a problem with fear of loss after a winning trade, which had then a cumulative effect.

It was not until I had started collecting data, that I realised how many opportunities I was missing. So this is pretty normal in the run of things whilst collect data.

But as the data sample grew, I noticed that Fear of loss had a cumulative effect across the week, and that I took less trades during the latter part of the week, as I started to string more profitable days together. This, I was not aware of, I had thought it was a day session only problem. Once I started to notice that it had a cumulative effect across the week, I start to notice the emotions involved with these days.

During particular bad days of being risk adverse after a string of good days, I had already known that I am going to be a risk adverse before I start trading, and with no correlation to my preparation before the session started.

How do I know this?

Well I have been tracking my gut instinct, as part of my grading of trades, to see what effect it has on the individual trades. With the view of collecting a large sample size, to decide how much importance I should place on gut instinct in my decision making process for trades.

Once I started tracking my gut instinct across individual trades, this has led me to be more in tune with my gut instinct. Therefore, I started to noticed that on the days I was particular risk adverse, I had a gut instinct that I was going to be gun shy before I even got out of bed.

And thinking about the last 2 of these instances, which are the freshest in my mind, I had actually gone to bed with the thoughts of I have had a good week, don’t give it all away tomorrow. Which has translated to risk aversion the next day.

Not wanting to give it away, is a natural and good in some ways, but it should not stop me taking good context, A grade trades.

I need to change that thought process

From

I have had a good week, don’t give it away which translates in to over risk adverse trading (non-trading)

To

I have had a good week, I need to be more focused and ensure that I still take only grade A trades, this way I will give myself the best chance of not giving away my returns but also increasing them

What I am going to do.

Currently I do a 5-minute visualisation before the session starts but I have noticed that on these days when I am risk adverse, that this makes no difference to my day. I am going to move this visualisation session to just before I go to bed. That way I am going to sleep on a positive and growth focused mind-set.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Apart from the cumulative risk adverse problem, I had a good week, all trades apart from 1 where Grade A, all days were Grade A and the week was Grade A.

One thing that started to slip was the end of day market review.

What is the problem

I have found that when I have a run of good weeks / months that some of the processes within the routine start to slip. It is normally only some of the minor ones, but this can start a slippery slope of starting to skip processes, that in turn can lead to poor returns and taking a step back in my performance.

Why do I have this problem?

This can be traced to a build-up of confidence, and the desire to get the same result with less work, but also is tied in with have not had a decent break from trading this year, plus racing twice a week and a tough weekend regatta.

All this has led me to being pretty mentally tired.

What I am going to do

I am going on holiday soon, so that we give me a break to mentally recharge.

But before I go on holiday, I will make a push and start my market reviews again, as if I leave them till after the holiday, it will be a lot harder to start that routine again.

I will do at least one review of either the Bund or the Stoxx, every day up to my break.

I will not post them every day, as this adds 10 minutes to the whole process.

My mild dyslexia mean I have to proof read everything I post at least 3 times.

I want to make it as easy as possible to get back into the routine. Once the routine is established once more than I can think about posting my reviews to the blog.

2 thoughts on “Weekly Trading Review – Why I Love Tracking Statistics and Gut Instincts.

  • 24/07/2016 at 15:19
    Permalink

    Very thorough fella…….very thorough.
    I like you take on everything!!

    Reply
    • 24/07/2016 at 16:13
      Permalink

      Hi Mike,

      Thanks for the kind comments. Doing my best not to leave any stone un turned in my journey to become the best trader I can be.

      Regards

      Adey

      Reply

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