This weekly trading review will be slightly different to normal.
I am due to take my summer break from trading next week, so for the next few weeks, I will be keeping an eye on the markets but not trading or tweeting.
So this weekly trade review, I am going to focus on the following
Where I am on my goals that I set for this time period.
My plan for when I come back to trading.
Progress Report on Goals
At the end of May, I set myself some personal goals with a timeframe of approximately 2 + months, i.e. before I took my summer break.
1. Increase the number of trades per week, whilst maintaining Grade A trades and my process. This was not just a random number picked from out of the air. This was based on checking the average number of opportunities per day that fitted my process, after back checking my market reviews for about 3 months.
2. Increase average weekly return from the trades. This was decided from looking at my current stats at the time and running a Monte Carlo simulation 25 times to get an idea of the return range, if I increased my number of trades. From this I then picked an average of the simulated returns.
3. Increase my expectancy from my trades. This was decided by looking at the MFE of my trades after I exited, whilst looking at the win rate of the first target and second target. From this I could see that I was miss managing a lot of my trades. Basically some trades, the scalps especially on fades again the bias, I was aiming for too large targets, and my trades with the bias I was aiming for too small targets. I did not give myself a hard target for this. Just aiming to increase this.
It is the end of July and where am I.
Trades increased from average of 8.5 to an average of 13 per week. Goal was 12.
The average return per week for the time period was 115% of the target set. No point going into specifics of what the actual target was, as this is personal and does not matter to this process.
Win rate and expectancy at the end of May was 56% and expectancy was 1 tick. Sample size 100.
Win rate and expectancy at the end of July was 66% and expectancy is 2.8 ticks. Sample size 104.
An important point to note about these goals, none of these where actively monitored during the session, and were not the focus of my trading during this period.
I set these goals, but then looked at what I needed to do performance wise for these goals to be the natural outcome of hitting my performance / skills targets.
Therefore, I focused on the following performance targets
Taking Grade A trades
Ways for me to maximise my focus so that I could entry as many grade A trades as possible
Minimising the number of missed Grade A opportunities due to FOL and other focus issues.
Work on my trade management though analysing past trade data and working on my mental side.
These areas were my primary focus and the results from these meant that I hit the other goals.
If I had just focused on the primary goals (the number of trader, return and exp) rather than the performance targets, I am pretty sure that this would be a different story.
I do not, for one moment, think I have cracked this. No, this is just a single step in my journey to become the best trader I can.
And there is still plenty of work to do on the above performance areas.
Next Steps in My Trading Journey
Over this break I am going to work on my goals for the next time period. I will follow the same process.
Result – what am I trying to achieve over this time period.
Process – to achieve this result, what processes do I need to do have in place to achieve this
Performance goals and Skill training – what performance areas and what skills do I need to work on to be enable me to successfully hit my process goals
Look at weekly performance in terms of process and skills – what do I do well and what could I do better.
Starting trading again
One of my concerns is that I rush back into trading over confident, and make a completely balls up and set myself back in this process.
So my plan is this
For the first week back I am not going to focus on any new goals.
Before I start trading I will read my trading system plan, from start to finish, from pre session right thought to end session. Even though I know everything my heart, I will re-read it all.
Completing all my routines to the letter.
During the session, a focus on only the Grade A trades with no pressure to take every opportunity. Goal will be to ensure that my read of the market is good and I am back into the flow, before actual trading.
Goal for the week will be to have 90% Grade A trades with a focus on what my read of the market is like.
Really the first week back will be a warm up / acclimatisation week.