Weekly Trading Review – Goals Progress Report and Next Steps

Weekly Trading Review – Goals Progress Report and Next Steps

This weekly trading review will be slightly different to normal.

I am due to take my summer break from trading next week, so for the next few weeks, I will be keeping an eye on the markets but not trading or tweeting.

So this weekly trade review, I am going to focus on the following

Where I am on my goals that I set for this time period.

My plan for when I come back to trading.

Progress Report on Goals

At the end of May, I set myself some personal goals with a timeframe of approximately 2 + months, i.e. before I took my summer break.

1. Increase the number of trades per week, whilst maintaining Grade A trades and my process. This was not just a random number picked from out of the air. This was based on checking the average number of opportunities per day that fitted my process, after back checking my market reviews for about 3 months.

2. Increase average weekly return from the trades. This was decided from looking at my current stats at the time and running a Monte Carlo simulation 25 times to get an idea of the return range, if I increased my number of trades. From this I then picked an average of the simulated returns.

3. Increase my expectancy from my trades. This was decided by looking at the MFE of my trades after I exited, whilst looking at the win rate of the first target and second target. From this I could see that I was miss managing a lot of my trades. Basically some trades, the scalps especially on fades again the bias, I was aiming for too large targets, and my trades with the bias I was aiming for too small targets. I did not give myself a hard target for this. Just aiming to increase this.

It is the end of July and where am I.

Trades increased from average of 8.5 to an average of 13 per week. Goal was 12.

The average return per week for the time period was 115% of the target set. No point going into specifics of what the actual target was, as this is personal and does not matter to this process.

Win rate and expectancy at the end of May was 56% and expectancy was 1 tick. Sample size 100.

Win rate and expectancy at the end of July was 66% and expectancy is 2.8 ticks. Sample size 104.

An important point to note about these goals, none of these where actively monitored during the session, and were not the focus of my trading during this period.

I set these goals, but then looked at what I needed to do performance wise for these goals to be the natural outcome of hitting my performance / skills targets.

Therefore, I focused on the following performance targets

Taking Grade A trades

Ways for me to maximise my focus so that I could entry as many grade A trades as possible

Minimising the number of missed Grade A opportunities due to FOL and other focus issues.

Work on my trade management though analysing past trade data and working on my mental side.

These areas were my primary focus and the results from these meant that I hit the other goals.

If I had just focused on the primary goals (the number of trader, return and exp) rather than the performance targets, I am pretty sure that this would be a different story.

I do not, for one moment, think I have cracked this. No, this is just a single step in my journey to become the best trader I can.

And there is still plenty of work to do on the above performance areas.

Next Steps in My Trading Journey

Goals

Over this break I am going to work on my goals for the next time period. I will follow the same process.

Result – what am I trying to achieve over this time period.

Process – to achieve this result, what processes do I need to do have in place to achieve this

Performance goals and Skill training – what performance areas and what skills do I need to work on to be enable me to successfully hit my process goals

Look at weekly performance in terms of process and skills – what do I do well and what could I do better.

Starting trading again

One of my concerns is that I rush back into trading over confident, and make a completely balls up and set myself back in this process.

So my plan is this

For the first week back I am not going to focus on any new goals.

Before I start trading I will read my trading system plan, from start to finish, from pre session right thought to end session. Even though I know everything my heart, I will re-read it all.

Completing all my routines to the letter.

During the session, a focus on only the Grade A trades with no pressure to take every opportunity. Goal will be to ensure that my read of the market is good and I am back into the flow, before actual trading.

Goal for the week will be to have 90% Grade A trades with a focus on what my read of the market is like.

Really the first week back will be a warm up / acclimatisation week.

29th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Retail 0745-0800 EZ Minor News 1000 EZ CPI
1330 US GDP 1445 US Chig PMI 1500 US Mich Cons
MONTH END

Stats

DATR 0.81-

WATR 1.85+

p.WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – After strong down week, neutral week with neutral bull close. Watch p.weekly 50% at 167.00 for ideal of where market going.

Previous Day – ERC.V up day followed by range day with neutral bull close

General Bias – SC 3

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 67.12 and bac 76

15min – Neutral Bias, bac 1 bz then bac of 1 sz, for t/c back to long, exp for 23-12 to hold and bac 62

Bull Hypo – if price holds/bof 42-35 then longs t 55-62 t2 68-75 bac 75; longs t 89-95 t2 06-13

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 55-68 then shorts t 42-35 bac 35 shorts t 23-12 if price holds / bof 12-03 then longs t 35/mid

Bear Hypo – if price bac 12 t 03 bac 03 t94 t2 85 t3 ext 76-67

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 67.75 For long trades bac 67.04

28th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0855 GER UMEPLOY 1330 US JOBS

Stats

DATR 0.81-

WATR 1.85+

p.WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – After strong down week, neutral week with neutral bull close. Watch p.weekly 50% at 167.00 for ideal of where market going.

Previous Day – ERC.V up day with very strong bull close m.50% 167.04 (tbc)

General Bias – SC 3

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 67.03 and bac 56/76

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 35-26 and bac 67.60

Bull Hypo – if price holds/bof 40-26 then longs t 52-60 bac 60 t 68-77, bac 77 t 89-95 t2 00-06

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 60-77 the shorts t 40-26 bac 25; then shorts t 13-04; if price holds 13-04 then longs t 25-40

Bear Hypo – if price bac 04 then shorts t 87 t2 76-67

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 67.75 For long trades bac 67.04

27th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Cons Climate 0930 UK GDP 1035 Ger Auc 1330 US Dur Goods
1500 US Home sales 1530 US Crude 1900 US FOMC

Stats

DATR 0.81-

WATR 1.85+

p.WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – After strong down week, neutral week with neutral bull close. Watch p.weekly 50% at 167.00 for ideal of where market going.

Previous Day – tst of 167.00 weekly 50% and Pbip, Range down day with neutral bear close

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, Pbip, for cont, exp to hold 66.43 and bac 67.03

15min – Long Bias for cont, exp to hold 52-42 bac 67

Bull Hypo – if price holds/bof 52-42 then longs t 64 -67 bac 67 t 75 t2 80-87 bac 87 t 94-03

Neutral Hypo – if price holds 67-75 then shorts t 52-42; If price holds/bof 42 thewn longs t 55

Bear Hypo – if price bac 42then shorts t 24-15 bac 15 t 08-00

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 67.03 For long trades bac 43 then 00

26th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

26th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 US S+P HPI comp 1445 US SER PMI 1500 US NEW HOME SALES

Stats

DATR 0.81-

WATR 1.85+

p.WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – After strong down week, neutral week with neutral bull close. Watch p.weekly 50% at 167.00 for ideal of where market going.

Previous Day – After daily bullpin, another bullpin, followed by range day with bull close with test and close inside of 66.68, bac of 66.87 and stats target of 168.00 ish in play

General Bias – SC 3

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 66.27-15 and bac 87

15min – Long Bias into neutral bal, watch for bac/bof 59/80, for cont, exp bof downside and bac upside

Bull Hypo – if price holds/bof 65-59 then longs t75-80 bac 80 t 87 bac 87 t00 t210-17 t3 67.25

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 80-87then shorts t 65-59 bac 59 then shorts t 48-42 t2 30-16; if price holds 30-16 then longs t 42-48 t2 60

Bear Hypo – if price bac 16 then shorts t09 t2 00-95

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 87 For long trades 166.00

25th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

25th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 EZ Ger IFO Biz 1400 Fr Auc

Stats

DATR 0.86-

WATR 1.85+

p.WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – After strong down week, neutral week with neutral bull close. Watch p.weekly 50% at 167.00 for ideal of where market going

Previous Day – After daily bullpin, another bullpin, bac of 66.68 and then 66.87 and hold of 65.63, stats target 168.00

General Bias – SC 3

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 18-01 bac 86

15min – Long Bias, for cont, hold 41-33 bac 74

Bull Hypo – if price holds/bof 43-33 then longs t 61-67; bac t 80-87; watch for bu/bof bac 87 then longs t 66.99 t2 67.17

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 87 then shorts 62 t2 43-33; if price holds 17-01 then longs t 33-43

Bear Hypo – if price bac 01 then shorts t 86-80

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 74 and 86 For long trades 166

 

Weekly Trading Review – Why I Love Tracking Statistics and Gut Instincts.

Weekly Trading Review 18th to 22nd July

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

My goal for increasing trading activity whilst staying with my rules, has been hit for 5 weeks in a row.

But whilst comparing this to my number of missed trades, I am still not making the most of the opportunities. I discussed this in last week’s review and what new processes, I was going to implement this week to improve this element of my trading.

Overall these new processes have helped in the short term especially during the session. One week is not much of a sample to indicate that this has improved on a permanent basis.

So for the next couple of weeks, I am going to continue with my current set of processes, and collect more data. But I am going to make one alteration to the current routine. Which I will explain fully below.

One thing that I love about tracking, is that once the process of collecting data has started, just the fact that I am collecting and monitoring a particular thing, can lead me to start noticing things which would have slipped by me.

One of the reasons, I started collecting data on missed trades, was that I had noticed, that I had a problem with fear of loss after a winning trade, which had then a cumulative effect.

It was not until I had started collecting data, that I realised how many opportunities I was missing. So this is pretty normal in the run of things whilst collect data.

But as the data sample grew, I noticed that Fear of loss had a cumulative effect across the week, and that I took less trades during the latter part of the week, as I started to string more profitable days together. This, I was not aware of, I had thought it was a day session only problem. Once I started to notice that it had a cumulative effect across the week, I start to notice the emotions involved with these days.

During particular bad days of being risk adverse after a string of good days, I had already known that I am going to be a risk adverse before I start trading, and with no correlation to my preparation before the session started.

How do I know this?

Well I have been tracking my gut instinct, as part of my grading of trades, to see what effect it has on the individual trades. With the view of collecting a large sample size, to decide how much importance I should place on gut instinct in my decision making process for trades.

Once I started tracking my gut instinct across individual trades, this has led me to be more in tune with my gut instinct. Therefore, I started to noticed that on the days I was particular risk adverse, I had a gut instinct that I was going to be gun shy before I even got out of bed.

And thinking about the last 2 of these instances, which are the freshest in my mind, I had actually gone to bed with the thoughts of I have had a good week, don’t give it all away tomorrow. Which has translated to risk aversion the next day.

Not wanting to give it away, is a natural and good in some ways, but it should not stop me taking good context, A grade trades.

I need to change that thought process

From

I have had a good week, don’t give it away which translates in to over risk adverse trading (non-trading)

To

I have had a good week, I need to be more focused and ensure that I still take only grade A trades, this way I will give myself the best chance of not giving away my returns but also increasing them

What I am going to do.

Currently I do a 5-minute visualisation before the session starts but I have noticed that on these days when I am risk adverse, that this makes no difference to my day. I am going to move this visualisation session to just before I go to bed. That way I am going to sleep on a positive and growth focused mind-set.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Apart from the cumulative risk adverse problem, I had a good week, all trades apart from 1 where Grade A, all days were Grade A and the week was Grade A.

One thing that started to slip was the end of day market review.

What is the problem

I have found that when I have a run of good weeks / months that some of the processes within the routine start to slip. It is normally only some of the minor ones, but this can start a slippery slope of starting to skip processes, that in turn can lead to poor returns and taking a step back in my performance.

Why do I have this problem?

This can be traced to a build-up of confidence, and the desire to get the same result with less work, but also is tied in with have not had a decent break from trading this year, plus racing twice a week and a tough weekend regatta.

All this has led me to being pretty mentally tired.

What I am going to do

I am going on holiday soon, so that we give me a break to mentally recharge.

But before I go on holiday, I will make a push and start my market reviews again, as if I leave them till after the holiday, it will be a lot harder to start that routine again.

I will do at least one review of either the Bund or the Stoxx, every day up to my break.

I will not post them every day, as this adds 10 minutes to the whole process.

My mild dyslexia mean I have to proof read everything I post at least 3 times.

I want to make it as easy as possible to get back into the routine. Once the routine is established once more than I can think about posting my reviews to the blog.

21st July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Retail sales 1245 EZ IR 1330 ECB Presser 1500 US Existing Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.86-

WATR 1.85+

WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Down week back into iw range. Strong down close.

Previous Day – BOF of id.hi at 66.84 followed by down with strong bear close without bac 66.17 or 65.95

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Short bias, for cont, exp to 66.60 -74 and bac 15

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp for 33 or 42-48 to hold and 15 bac

Bear Hypo – if price holds / bof 33 or 42-48 then shorts t17 bac 08 t2 00-95 bac 95 t 85-79

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 15 or 04-95 then longs t 17 t 2 29-33 t3 42-48; bac 48 t 60-74; if price holds /bof 60-74 then shorts t 43

Bull Hypo – if price bac 74 then longs t 86; bac 86 then t 67.00

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 74 and 86 For long trades 66.95 and 66.15

20th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 GER PPI 0930 UK Av Earn 1035 Ger Auc 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 0.86-

WATR 1.85+

WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Down week back into iw range. Strong down close.

Previous Day – BOF if id.hi at 66.84, neutral close id.lo 65.95

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, Pbip, for cont, exp 66.29 hold, bac 66.88

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp for 64-72 hold and 29 bac

Bear Hypo – if price holds / bof 62-72 then shorts t56-47 t2 40-33 bac 29 t 11-08 t2 00-95

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 40-29 then longs t 47-56 t2 62-72 bac 72 then longs t 82-87; if price holds / bof 82-87 then shorts 56-47

Bull Hypo – if price bac 87 then longs t 93-00 t2 11-17

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 69 and 84 For long trades 66.95 and 66.29

 

19th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK CPI 1000 EZ ZEW 1330 US Building Permits

Stats

DATR 0.92

WATR 1.85+

WK.50% 167.00

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Down week back into iw range. Strong down close.

Previous Day – ID with bull close. Id.hi at 66.84 id.lo 65.95

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, bac of 1 xsz and HL, for t/c to long, exp to hold 66.29 and bac 66.69

15min – Neutral Bias, bac of bz and LL, for t/c to short, exp to hold 56-67 and bac 29

Neutral Hypo – if price holds / bof 64-67 then shorts t 69-64 t 40 t3; if price holds/ 40-29 then longs t 64-69

Bull Hypo – if price bac 67 then longs t 78-84, bac 84 (poss bof) then longs t 00 t2 10-17 t2 25-37

Bear Hypo – if price bac 29 then shorts t 17-09 t2 05-95

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 69 and 84 For long trades 66.95 and 66.29