Weekly Trading Review 13 to 17th June

Weekly Trading Review 13 to 17th June

Another interesting problem for me in this weekly trading review. During the week, I had this small conversation with Jared Tendler, the author of The Mental Game of Poker and The Mental Game of Poker 2. Which if you have followed my previous reviews, then I highly recommended these books.

Weekly Trading Review

Using my trader profile, I have a list of traits that I have associated when I am trading at my best and when I trade at the worse. I have been closely watching when I start display traits that are not conducive to my trading, so that I can apply strategies to counter these traits. Which is working okay, but is still a reactive strategy, i.e if I display these traits I then apply a strategy to counter.

But after that conversation, I have started to look at the situations when I slip from my focus zone and A game to B or C game traits.

So that I can then be on the lookout for the situations that generate these traits so that I can start to try these and counter these traits before I starting taken lower grade trades.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my process and was again more active in the market relatively to the amount of time I traded (more on this in a moment), and my trades this week had a better win rate and exp.

I had a similar day to last week, where my read of the market was wrong and I blinding followed my process, ignoring my gut that something was wrong. I noticed this a lot early than last week and managed to nip it in the bud earlier. This allowed me to recover by following my process, fairly quickly and have a good end to the week.

After the above conversation with Jared, I looked at all the instances where my focus and my traits slipped from A game to B or C game.

The most common link to the majority of these instances seems to come after I take my break and partly into the afternoon, I noticed that in my day journal that my mini plans become less frequent, that I feel distracted, less focused and tired.

I decided as a short term strategy that I would stop trading as soon as I started to get distracted, the warning signals are reading twitter, reading news items on the internet or general internet browsing, etc. When I am focused, I might check twitter once or twice a session, and never browse the internet.

This result of this was that I did not trade in the afternoon of Thursday and Friday. Overall this decreased my trades per day, by an average of 1 per day over the whole week, but my winning percentage and expectancy went up. Obviously with the caveat, that this is a very small sample size.

One thing that was noticeably that this weeks results whilst positive, where statistically at the top end of my average returns, but with less trades and less sessions on average.

Therefore whilst the optimum result is to reduce these non focused sessions to as close to zero as possible (as an average), the second best option for my results, is to continue to trade as normal, but as soon as I start feeling distracted and cannot get back on track, then I will stop trading.

A quick note to this, I absolutely hated not trading the afternoon sessions for 2 days, made me feel like a loser and a slacker, even though statically it is better for my bottom line.  Which again reinforces that what we want and what we feel, does not always correlate to what is best for our trading.

The next step is to work on a strategy to start that reducing these moments.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I am having problems implementing my three things, from last week’s trade review, consistency. I made a start and I struggled during the week, obviously this has not been helped with my focus problems. It is hard enough implementing my known processes when I am distracted and non-focused, let alone add new solutions.

I am going to concentration on the non-focus problem, I am going to still keep implementing these new process, but the first step is to get the focus under control and then see what the consistency of the new process implementation is. And only judge the quality of my implementation of these new processes when I am focused and in the zone.

What is the problem

Early into the PM session, I am starting to lose focus and get distracted which leads to poor chart reading, lack of mini plans and then even poorer execution.

Why do I have this problem?

I have always suffered with this problem to some extent, but have managed to keep it under control by going to bed early and taking regular breaks, so what has changed over the past three weeks that could have a knock on effect to make this a issue.

1) I restarted my fitness programme back in April and have slowly been building intensity and volume over this time as I have gotten fitter. This could be having a knock on effect. As I am knackered after a HIIT session, and that normally effects by ability to concentrate or even hold a pen properly for a good 20-30 minutes afterwards.

2) I used to have a cup of Bulletproof coffee for breakfast a long time ago and I found that it was an excellent way of keeping me focused during the day. But this all had to stop since when I found that milk was adversely affect my stomach and giving my other problems, so have since last year gone dairy free.

After reading this article from a trader at Stage 5 about the benefits he found using Bulletproof coffee. I decided three weeks ago, to start it this routine again but without using diary and only using cold pressed coconut oil.

Again I am having excellent results in the AM session, but could this exaggerated lack of focus, be because I am hitting an energy wall in the afternoon session.

What I am going to do

As I am not sure what the cause of this problem is, I am going to only change one of the 2 things that I have been doing differently over the past 3 weeks.

I am not that keen on reducing the exercise, because this had little adverse effect on my trading in the past, and I was training with a lot more intensity and volume I am now.

The Bulletproof coffee has a positive effect on my AM session, so I am to have a second cup of bulletproof coffee at around 1230 after exercising to see what effect this has on my focus during the afternoon session.

I am not too bothered about the calories, as I never eaten breakfast, rarely eat lunch and have a big fuck off meal in the evening. This has been my modus operandi for the past 30 plus years. So with the introduction of these added calories, I will reduce the portion size of my evening meal to just a fuck off size.

I have also done a cheat sheet of when I should be using my logical statements during the session, along with a reminder of my three new execution processes.

17th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

TBA Eu Fin Minsters 1330 US Building Permits 1600 Ez Draghi

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.57-

WK.50% 64.41-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close, HIT MM AT 165.92

Previous Day – Range down day with bear close, bof of id, y.low 65.07

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, LL, exp for LH, or bac of 06-87n for trend change, otherwise bal

15min – Short Bias, @ 60bz, PBip, for cont, exp hold 38 and bac 07

Hypo 1 – Down – if price bac 07 then shorts t 00 t294-87 bac 87 t 77-70-60-55

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 06-86 then then longs t 21 t2 45; if price holds 45-68 then shorts t 21

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 68 then longs 78-88

Red flag levels – For short trades 87 For long trades 68

16th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 ECB Econ 0930 UK Retail Sales 1000 Ez CPI
1200 UK IR 1330 US CPI / Phill Fed

Stats

DATR 60-

WATR 1.57-

WK.50% 64.41-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close, HIT MM AT 165.92

Previous Day – Range up day with bull close (id.hi 65.44, id.lo 64.87)

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long bias, for cont, exp tp hold 98-88 and bac 65.44 for test /bac 65.61

15min – Long bias, for cont, exp to hold 24-15 and bac 44

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds /bof 37-44 then shorts t 24-15 bac 15t 06 t2 00-9; if price holds / bof 00-87 then longs 15-15

Hypo 2 – Up – if price holds 24-15 then longs t 37-44 bac 44 t 61 bac 61 t 68-89 t2 Datr

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 88 then shorts t 77-70

Red flag levels – For short trades 60 For long trades 87

15th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 French CPI 0930 UK Ave Earning 1000 Ez Trade Bal
1035Ger Auc 1330 US Emp Man / PPI 1530 Us Crude
1900 US FOMC

Stats

DATR 60-

WATR 1.57-

WK.50% 64.41-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close, HIT MM AT 165.92

Previous Day – Bac of ID with erc up with weak bull close d.lo at 64.72

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long bias, for cont, exp tp hold 98-88 and bac 65.60

15min – Neutral bias, for dir, bac 35 or 98

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 05-98 or 88 then longs t 16 t2 29 bac 29 t 37 bac 37 t 51; if price holds / bof 51-60 then shorts t 37 t2 16

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 60 then longs t 76 -87

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 98-86 then t 77 t2 70 bac 70 t 62-55

Red flag levels – For short trades 60 For long trades 55

14th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

14th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Span CPI 0930 UK CPI 1000 EZ Ind Prod
1330 US Retail 1500 Us Biz Inv

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.57-

WK.50% 64.41-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close, HIT MM AT 165.92

Previous Day – ID Range day with neutral bear close ID HI 64.95 id.lo 64.55

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long bias, but in scrappy pb / bal, bac of 55-98 for direction

15min – Short bias, for cont, exp to hold 87-98 and bac 60

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 60-55 then longs t 78; if price hold/bof 95-98 then shorts t 78

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 98 longs t 10-19 (0 yield)

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 55 then shorts t 48-43 and t2 ext 34-31 gap fill

Red flag levels – For short trades 98 For long trades 55

Bund Trade Review – 13th June

Bund Trade Review – 13th June

Before I did my Bund trade review, I was feeling okay about the day, but afterwards, I am a bit disappointed with today, overall an okay up day, was not really feeling it before I took a break and it took me a while to get back into it after the break.

7 missed trades across Bund and Stoxx, 3 of these where on trades that I normally do not take due to time of day (but I am recording to see if I should be taking these), and 2 no fills which where placed with correct buffers etc, so shit happen trades. Which leaves 2 missed trades, 1 missed as I was doing plan for Stoxx and Bund and time and 1 due to FOL.

The missed open due to doing the plan was frustrating, as before I started to do the plan I could see it was a potential but did my plan before placing the order. I suspect this avoidance raising its head in another form.

The FOL trade was a good clean step up, but I was expecting another extreme, should have taken it as these give at least a reaction to the scale.

Trade Review Grading

Trades average grade B

Mentally and Tactically, I spent a good amount of time displaying my A game mental and tactical traits with various times in the B and C game.

Summary – problem focusing today, and staying on top of context. Average day grade was brought down by being too aggressive with trade management on 2 of the scalps and focus issues around the end of the Am session and start of the PM session.

Bund Trade Review

13th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1400 Fr Auc 1630 Us Auct

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.57-

WK.50% 64.41-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close, HIT MM AT 165.92

Previous Day – Up day with bull close

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp for price to hold 70-55 and bac 64.98

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp price to hold 70 and bac 93 and 98

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 93-98 then shorts t 78-70 bac 70 t 60-55, if price holds 60-55 then longs t 93-98

Hypo 2 – Up – if price holds 78-70 then longs t 93-98, bac 98 longs t 10-16 (0 yield)

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 55 then shorts t 48-43 and t2 ext 34 gap fill

Red flag levels – For short trades 98 For long trades 43

Weekly Trading Review 6th-10th June

Weekly Trading Review 6th-10th June

This weekly trading review is going to be interesting for me, as it was a week of up and downs, one side I seemed to be following my processes, and the other hand I ignored my gut and had a poor read of the market.

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my process for taking trades and determining my bias, and was more active in the market. At times I blindly followed my process, the downside of this is that 22% of my trades went against my gut instinct and all where losers.

The upside I did not let this effect my process and kept trading, and the process allowed me to recover a significant amount of the drawdown fairly quickly.

So down the line, once I have collected more data on how my gut instinct is correlated to my returns, then I will look at how I can fold my gut instinct into my decision making process.

The best thing I started this week, was introduced a process at the end of the day where I grade my performance.

@BreakingOutBad wrote a good article and video on grading our trades and days.

I have altered his process for grading trades to suit my style a while ago and up to the beginning of this week, was using his spreadsheet to grade my overall day performance.

What I have changed is, I have started to grade my days in reference to my trading profile, which focuses on my individual traits on the good and bad side. This is helping me reduce the moments when I am trading at my C game level and maximising my time during the trading session when I trade at my A game level.

060916_1545_BundTradeRe1.png

I got the idea of a trading profile from the book “The Mental Game of Poker 2”.

Which I recommend every trader that is looking for practical solutions to help with the mental side.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

Missed trades where an increasing problem this week. Missed trades include no fills, trades I was meant to take but was not focussed, trades that I do not place orders for. I nearly had the same number of the missed trades as filled trades.

I thought I had got this problem to a reasonable level of control, but it seems to be bubbling back to be an issue once again. The missed trades had a 92% win rate, so I am potentially leaving profits on the table.

I spent the last couple of hours, looking at each missed trade of the past 3 weeks. And split them into three categories,

1) FOL trades – any order that was not placed with the correct buffer or when I did not place a blind order but waited for order flow. Note that these trades do not include hindsight trades, these all must be trades I identify in real time.

2) Pulled Trades – if a trades does not fill me and then goes 5 ticks in my favour then I tend to pull a trade.

3) Shit happens trades – basically trades I would not do anything different next time round.

4) Orderflow trades – where I do not get filled with a limit on an order flow trade.

FOL 50%
Pulled 14%
Shit Happens 21%
Orderflow 15%

What is the problem

The problem is that by not placing the correct buffer and not following my procedures for execution of the trades is skewing my results to the wrong side. Every time I place an order in the wrong place so it more unlikely to get filled, means that the number of winning trades will drop, whilst my losing trades will remain constant. Because every losing trade will trigger my order even if it is in the wrong place, while the winning trades are unlikely to trigger an order in the wrong place. Thus this skews the result the wrong way.

For example and this is exaggerated. If price is at 165.20 and I have a level at 165.10, but place an order to buy at 165.05, and it bounces off 165.10 then I missed the trade. But if the trade is wrong and it trades through the level and fills at 165.05 and then stops me out. I am getting the losers and missing out on some of the winners.

In summary, my own actions, due to fear of losing money, will cause me to lose more money than is necessary in my trading system.

Why do I have this problem

I am not committing fully to the risk of these trades and it is my perfectionism (trying to get so close to where I am wrong that the trade leaves without me) and a playing not to lose mind set. This in turn causes an under performance in my own trading which leads to more fear.

For fuck sake, someone take me out behind the shed and shoot me.

Every time I seem to get a handle on this, it reduces to acceptable level and then it comes back. What is not happening is that any changes I implement, are not becoming a habit. I have buffer rules, as I know that the levels on the products I trade get front run, and not following my executions process is holding me back. It does not matter about the instinct trades, or how simple I make my trading system, or my stats, or how well I follow all my other processes. If I fail to follow my execution process then the rest is all just mental masturbation.

What I am going to do

I am going to do three things

1) Order flow entries will be taken with a market order not a limit order.

2) Pulled entries will be left for the second test unless against a strong opposing bias.

3) I will increase my buffer by 1 tick on each product for the various different levels. And my individual trade grading will penalise each trade that does not stick to these new buffers. I will also add to my trader profile, a grade section for following my buffer rules, so that it will affect my day grade.

I will add a logical statement to my pre market prep.

By placing an order in such a way to minimise the chance of it being executed, due to fear of losing money, will in turn cause me to lose more money than is necessary in my trading system.

10th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Ger Buba 1500 Us Mich Cons Exp

Stats

DATR 60-

WATR 1.07-

WK.50% 64.31-

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close and bac of iwx2 T MM 65.92

Previous Day – Up Range day with neutral bull close

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp for price to hold 43 and bac 81

15min – Neutral Bias, In mini bal bac 51 or 81 for s/t dir

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 71 -81 then shorts t 62 t2 51-43; if price holds / bof 51-43 then longs t62 t71-81

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 43 then shorts t 34 t2 22-13, bac 13 t 00-84

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 81 then longs t 00 t2 17

Red flag levels – For short trades 81 For long trades 43

Bund Trade Review – 9th June

Bund Trade Review – 9th June

Overall an okay to good session. Stoxx had a couple of losses and then a good trade followed by a secondary trade which was a good trade. As per my rules I am trying to get in the habit of taking the secondary set-ups, I am taking these at half size until I get into the habit. But a better read of the market than yesterday.

I also have to get out of the habit of doubting my own analysis when I see someone I respect (relatively) on twitter give an opposing opinion. This comment is not a comment on any specific trader or any trader on twitter, and about whether they are right or wrong, it is not, this is all to do about how I respond to opposing opinions and my analysis.

I grade my trades on an individual day, and the average them out to give me an average grade for the day. What I have started doing is grading my performance against the trader profile I did in this post called Working on improving my C Game.

Here is today’s version as an example. I find it easier to track my mental performance, if I score myself every time I start displaying one of the behaviours in my A to C game, rather than on general metrics.

Bund trade review

Bund Trade Review