1st July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

1st July 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0819-0900 EZ Vars PMI 1000 EZ Unemploy 1445 US Man PMI
1500 US ISM Man PMI

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – ERC up week with neutral bull close

Previous Day – ERC Down day with bear close, bof of brexit low(??)

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, bac of bz x 2, looking for lower high or bac of 51 for t/c to short bias

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 66.05 and bac 51

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds 59-51 then longs t 80 t02; if price holds / bof 02 then shorts t 80

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 51 then shorts t 29-17 t2 06-96

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 05 longs t 27 bac t 42 if price holds 42-55 then shorts t 27

Red flag levels – For short trades 44 For long trades 51

28th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

28th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

UK REF Volt 1330 US GDP 1500 US CB Consumer

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – ERC up week with neutral bull close

Previous Day – Up day with strong bull close

General Bias – SC 3

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 67-50 and bac 67.00-08

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 73-65 and bac 92

Hypo 1 – Up – if price hold/bof 73-65 then longs t 82-91 bac 91 t 00-08 bac 08 t 23 t2 40

Hypo 2 – Range – if price bof/ holds 91 or 00-08 then shorts t 73-85 t2 57-50; if price holds / bof 57-50 then longs t 82-91

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 48 then shorts t 34-30 t2 22-13

Red flag levels – For short trades 00-08 For long trades 50 then 13

Mature Bal / NR(id)

 

News

 

OOR

 

Gap +14

 

OD/Tight Bal

27th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

UK REF Volt 1330 US Goods TB 1445 US Sev PMI

Stats

DATR 1.08 WATR 1.88 WK.50% M.50%

Weekly Summary – ERC up week with weak bull close

Previous Day – Down day with strong bear close

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to hold 66.77 and bac 65.49

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to 85-92 and bac 65.49

With all the toys being thrown out of the cot this weekend. I am not drawing up hypos till I see where it opens. Then I will work off mini plans and only trade when Liquidity hits certain levels on the markets I trade.

But areas of interest are as follows

Sell Zones

66.19-.30 (24) Minor Hvn for the rot for US Open
66.53-77 (68) 60 SZ and start of the last rot downAnd 66.65 was the unadjusted prev ATH
67.04-23 m.bar 50% and mid of friday
68.53 – 68.86 Fri open and Friday hi

Buy Zones

65.68-59 Friday low and p.w.hi
65.50 hvn
65.29 lvn
65.06-63.95 Conf zone, mm,p.wvpoc,hvn
64.60 Top of prev bal
Playing the Odds – The Return of the Stats

Playing the Odds – The Return of the Stats

I had an interesting conversation (short but interesting) with James from Traderunner.pro about stats.

I have / had a stat that says that if price opens in value then there is an 83% chance of it testing yesterday’s vpoc. He asked whether I had considered whether that stat is more influenced by the distance from vpoc when it opens rather than fact it opens in value.

This has been something I had noticed before, that distance / size of various could be an influencing factor in the probabilities. For example, the 83% also includes all the times it opens just a few tick from the vpoc which certainly skews the results. Many of my stats have certain filters that take in account this sort of behaviour.

I have now applied that filter to majority of my stats that certainly alters the results. For example the open in value and retest of the previous days vpoc drops to 60% , if the open is more than 20 ticks away from the vpoc.

One of the problems with stats is that how do we use them practically to gain an edge. We could have a stat for fading a certain move but how do we find entry and how do we define our risk.

One of the techniques I have been trialling is an idea, I borrowed from @trader1906 from his and Tom Dante‘s webinar on market statistics. My review of that webinar is here.

After I find a high probability (70%+) stat, I then look at all the times this stat has completed (thanks to RT Investor this is pretty simple) and looked at maximum distance it went in the opposing (adverse) direction. I then worked out the Mode distance and the 1 Standard Deviation of this maximum adverse distance.

What this allows me to do, is that when a stat becomes valid but open, I can look at the chart for valid levels within the max adverse distance to take a possible trade with a target of completing the stat. I then have a way of defining my risk and knowing that if price trades beyond this standard deviation that whilst the stat still have a chance of completing, that the probability of this has dropped to where it is now not a high probability setup.

I have been using this technique on a couple of stats and these have now turned into my most frequent stat trades and my most profitable stat trades.

This is the chart of my filter and the MAE profile, for the days where it only breaks one side, how far did it go back inside the IBR when the extreme is outside the IBR.

Weekly Trading Review 20 to 24th June

A good week, pretty uneventful even with all the news and volatility

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my plans, managed my energy, and only traded in the volatility when conditions and liquidity had returned to a level, I had decided before the session started.

Overall trades were mainly A grade and each session I spent the majority of time playing my A game. And only trading when it suited my strengths.

Having the second cup of Bulletproof coffee has helped me with my focus in the afternoons. I will continue this.

Basically the best thing I did was to trade in conditions where I was strongest and avoided conditions where I was the weakest.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I spent time giving advice to other traders who are on the same journey but further behind.

Why was it bad decision, as it is a waste of time, and I was too polite to cut it off when I knew I was wasting my time, which was about 2 conversations ago. It is not that I dislike these people, I do like them. But spending time discussing trading with them is a waste of time, I should keep it just social and general chit chat.

It is not a waste of time when it genuinely helps others. But it is a waste of time when the same people, ask the same questions time and time again for me only to give the same answers. Only to get to the next conversation to find they have done little to improve their lot and then ask the same questions again.

It is not helpful to them, as they are obviously looking for a different answer to their question than the one I can give. It is not helpful to me, as it makes me frustrated, as I find to it hard to understand why people that claim to want results, ask for advice and then not do anything to improve their situation.

It is not that following my way is the only way to do it, but as I say on the site, adapt what is useful, reject what is useless and add what is specifically your own.

It is not that asking for my opinion and then following it, is what I want.  It is good to disagree and discuss stuff, as it opens our minds to other possibilites but asking my opinion on the same subjects, time and time again because they to hear something that fits with their world view.  i.e that it must be possible to make a money by taking 4-8 ticks out of the market everyday with no edge, no plan apart from wanting to make money and taking random trades.

But there are two things I do know

1) Doing the same thing and expecting different results is not going to work.

2) Trading without an edge, trading without a plan, trading without consistency is not going to produce any sort of consistent positive results.

The main reason I posted my stuff is that when trading by myself it is easy to go “fuck it, I will not do my weekly review”. This site gives me a routine and structure, which I benefit from.

The second reason, is I like helping others. That is one of the reasons I post my stuff, if it helps in a small way, then that is great.

And this is not about the others that I give advice to, it is about me, I need to manage my time, and I will work to recognise when I am pissing in the wind and then use my time more wisely, rather than bang on trying to convince other people to put the work in.

It is boring for me and it certainly must be boring for them.

24th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

24th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

UK REF Res 0900 Ger IFO 1330 US Core Durable
1500 US Mich Cons

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Neutral week. w.hi at 65.68 w.lo 64.60

Previous Day – Down day with strong bear close

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont , exp to hold 64.22 and bac 63.49

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to 85-92 and bac 63.49

Hypo 1 – Down – if price bac 49 then shorts t 15 t2 07-88 bac 88 t 67

Hypo 2 – Range – if price bod 49-40 then longs t80 t2 07-22, if price holds / bof 07-27 then shorts t 80

Hypo 3 – Up – If price bac 27 then longs t 38 t2 48-67

Red flag levels – For short trades 27 For long trades 49

23rd June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

23rd June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

UK REF 0830 Ger PMI 0900 EZ PMI
1330 US Jobs 1500 US New Home

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Neutral week. w.hi at 65.68 w.lo 64.60

Previous Day – Up day with strong bull close

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, in bal 64.60-64.08 bac 4 dir

15min – Long bias, at top of bal, for cont, exp bac 64-72, bof or failure then return to va

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 67-72 then shorts t 48 t40 t2 28-17; if price holds / bof 28-17 then longs t 40 t2 48 t3 60-72

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 72 then longs t 87 t2 99-06 t3 13-29

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 06 then short s t 00-98 t2 94-84 (if price holds 94-84 then longs t 15) bac f 84 t 72-65

Red flag levels – For short trades 72 For long trades 83

21st June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 Ger ZEW 1400 EZ Draghi 1500 US Yellen

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Neutral week. w.hi at 65.68 w.lo 64.60

Previous Day – Down day with bear close

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to hold 60-72 and bac 15

15min – Short bias, for cont, exp, to hold 40-50 and bac 20

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 23-15 then longs t 40; if price holds 55-60 then shorts t 40

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 72 then longs t 87 t2 99-03

Hypo 3 – Down – if price holds 40-50 then shorts t 29 t2 15, bac 15 then short s t 00-98 t2 94-84 (if price holds 94-84 then longs t 15) bac f 84 t 72-65

Red flag levels – For short trades 72 For long trades 83

 

Bund Trade Review

Bund Trade Review

1 Trade, 3 no fills. 1 was at correct buffer, 1 was at incorrect buffer and 1 was a limit order instead of market order.

2 before open London and Chicago.

Spent the whole day in A game the only C game traits was the incorrect buffer and the limit order instead of market order.

Good read and good focus. On the lookout for entries all day. A few no tests and a couple where I broke my new procedures about front running my levels and going to market on order flow.

Correction on #5 says order in at 30, it is meant to say 23, and it was a no fill.

Bund Trade Review

20th June 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI

Stats

DATR 59-

WATR 1.51-

WK.50%

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Neutral week. w.hi at 65.68 w.lo 64.60

Previous Day – Down day with neutral bear close

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, bac of s bz, for cont, exp 65.30 to hold and 64.60 to bac

15min – Neutral bias, rej of 60.bz, exp test of 05-09 and poss 16 whilst before retest of 64.70

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 05-09 then shorts t 89 t2 77-69 bac 69 t 60-55 bac t48 -34

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 16-29 then shorts t 77-69, if price holds / bof 69-60 then longs t 89

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 29 then longs t 49 bac 49 t 60-68

Red flag levels – For short trades 87 For long trades 68