Weekly Trading Review 16-20 May

Weekly Trading Review 16-20 May

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

An okay to good week, a good read of the markets and I followed my process, trades were A and B, with an overall grade of B. Would have been an overall grade of A, but a few of the trades have been downgraded from A to B, since I added in the metric of playing to win to the grading system. It is only the first week or so that I have added this as a metric, and I will keep gathered data and see what I can do to improve this metric.

The more I focus in on just following my process, the clearer it becomes that the better trades come from the basic or core tenants of my system. The other stuff whilst helpful, can just cloud the picture. And what I mean is that it seems that some of the stuff I use, if I stripped it out of the trading system, would mean that I would take less trades but these trades that get dropped are the least profitable and most difficult to manage.

Of course this is just a feeling by looking at my trades over the past few weeks. I am not going to do anything drastic, but will analyse my trading journal for answers. As this feeling could be just Regency Bias.

So part of this weekend will be to do a back test of the past 50 opportunities, using only the core of my system, which is supply and demand coupled with volume profile and compare results against the past 50 opportunities using my full system rules for the supply and demand trades.

As always the goal is to make my rules and process as simple as possible without over simplifying them.

I will not include the breakout and retest trades and breakout failure trade in this, as these entries have simple rules and have had virtually no creep in the scope of the rules.

But overall the goal next week is to keep following my processes and working on my play to win attitude in trades.

Weekly Trade Review

The other good thing that happened this week, was I had a Grade A trade that went all of 1 tick MFE and stopped me out under 5mins. I then reassessed my bias, and looked for opportunities to go with my new bias till the larger timeframe level. The result I did not get filled on the trade with the new bias and price stopped 2 ticks from the larger timeframe level, and I did not take the fade at the good intraday level which would not hit my scale and would have stopped me out. So overall whilst not earning anything from this process, it stopped me from taking a scratch trade (best case scenario) or a stop out (worst case scenario)

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I have noticed that some of my blind limit order trades, sometimes give me a signal for a secondary entry on a pullback to retest the level a second time, which is pretty close to the original entry point. I find, I do not regular take these trades and I tend to only take them if I do not get a fill on my original trade.

What is the problem

I am not re-entering trades after a win, when I get a secondary signal setup.

Why do I have this problem?

I rarely re-enter these trades as my FOL, makes me not want to give up a large portion of profits of the first trade, if the second trade then does not work out.

I have spent some time back testing and researching these “second chance” trades and whilst they have a slightly less win rate, the second chance entry has a better MFE profile.

But even armed with this knowledge, I still find myself extremely reluctant to take these trades.

This is certainly not a Play to Win mind-set but a Playing Not to Lose mind-set.

What I am going to do

I am going to take a baby steps approach to this. First I need to get into the habit of taking these secondary trades. To do this, I will be taking these at half of the risk of the original trade, thus if they do not work out then the loss will only be a smaller portion of the previous winning trade. Once I get into the habit of taking these trades and I can then focus on the correct sizing of these setups.

20th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

20th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 1100 UK CBI Ind 1500 US Existing Home Sales

Stats

DATR 68-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close into D.SZ

Previous Day – Range up day with bull close.

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias , rej of prev bal area 63.05 and pb to 60.sz, for cont of bias, exp of 63.772 to hold and bac 06, if bac of 72 then n.bias

15min – Long Bias, for cont, exp to hold 46-41 and bac 71

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 71 then shorts t 46-41 t2 33; if price holds 33-27 then longs t 50

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 71 then longs t 86 t2 96-00 bac 96 t 07-17

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 27 then shorts t 16 bac 16 t 06 t 96

Red flag levels – For short trades 63.71 For long trades bac 62.96

19th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Retail Sales 1230 EZ ECB Meet Mins 1330 US Philly Man

Stats

DATR 68-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close into D.SZ

Previous Day – ERC down day with strong bear close m.bar 50 @ 57 (tbc)

General Bias – SC -2

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to hold 49-56 or 60-71 and bac 16

15min – Short Bias, for cont, exp to make LH and bac 16

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 42 or 49-56 then shorts t 28 t2 16 bac 16 t 05-96 bac 96 t 83-67

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 16-12 then longs t 42 t2 49-56 t3 60-71, if price holds 60-71 then shorts t 49 t2 28

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 71 then longs t 85-96

Red flag levels – For short trades 63.71 For long trades bac 62.96

18th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

18th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Avg Earn 1000 Ez CPI 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close into D.SZ

Previous Day – Neutral Up Day with neutral Bull close and bof of id.lo 63.76

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral bias, rejection of bz 50-42 and rot up t0make HH and test top of range sz 18-30 rej back to mid of bal at 91-83

15min – Long Bias, rej 60.sz and bac to 15.bz 91083

Hypo 1 – Up – If price holds 91-83 then longs t 08 t2 17 bac 17 t 25-30 bac 30 t 45-49 bac 49 t 60

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 28-30 then shorts t 11 t2 00; if price holds/bof 91-83 then longs t 08

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 83 t 72-65 t2 58-49

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.30 For long trades bac 63.49

17th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK CPI 1000 EZ Trade Bal 1330 US Core CPI
1415 US Ind Prod

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close into D.SZ

Previous Day – Down day with strong bear close Inside dayx2 id.hi 64.30 id.lo 63.76

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Neutral bias, rejection of sz 64.30 and back to bz at76-62. Bac of 64.49 – 63.62 for direction. Possible range

15min – Short bias, for cont, exp for 00-10 to hold and bac of 75 for test of 61

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds/bof 76-61 then longs t 00 bac 00-08 t 19-30; if price holds / bof 19-30 then shorts t 00-94

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 76 t 61 bac 61 t 50-42 bac 42 t 24 bac 24 ext t 12-00

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 30 t 49 bac 49 t 60 bac 60 t datr

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.49 For long trades bac 63.61

16th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

16th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

Ger Holiday 1330 US NY Empire Man

Stats

DATR 69-

WATR 1.66-

WK.50% 63.98

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close into D.SZ

Previous Day – Neutral Up day with strong bull close. Inside day id.hi 64.30 id.lo 63.76

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Neutral bias, bac t/l bac of bz but held and 2nd bz and rot back to origin of erc rot down. Bac of 64.49 – 63.62 for direction. Possible range

15min – Long bias up into 60.sz, for cont exp 11-00 to hold and bac of 31 for test of 49

Hypo 1 – Range – if price hold / bof 36-49 then shorts t 10-00; if price bac 00 then hsorts t 89-76; if price bac holds/bof 89-76 then longs t 06

Hypo 2 – Up – if price holds/bof 10-01 then longs t 43.31 t2 36-49 bac 49 t 60 bac 60 t2 72 t3 datr/00

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 76 then shorts t 67-61 bac 61 t 57 t2 50-42

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.49 For long trades bac 63.61

Weekly Trading Review 9-13 May

Weekly Trading Review 9-13 May

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Overall, I finished this week down. I am not particular bothered with that, as all the trades part from one was Grade A or B, and I followed my processes though out the whole week.

The best thing I did this week was follow my process which is a going programme for me. To build a consistency in following my trades in entry and managing the trades.

I had a trader review with Futures Trader 71, which was interesting and very helpful. My thanks to Morad, for taking the time to do this. Just one of the reasons why Stage 5 Trading is a great broker.  See what I think if Stage 5.

One of the points from the review was that, with me being a process lead person, I was aiming for too much perfection in my trades. If you had read my previous weekly reviews, you can see that I was coming to this conclusion, and have been making a little headway in this, but it was good to discuss this with FT and he had some very helpful suggestions with how to approach this.

To help on that side, I have customised a version of the fib tool to enable me to draw from the stop to the target, and then the tool will draw the price for an entry with a 1.5R and the 3R risk to reward ratio. This gives a goldilocks zone and a potential last entry point.

Weekly Trading Review
Example of my Risk / Tool

Of course, the aim is to enter as close to where I am wrong but this tool gives me a price where the trade is still variable in the risk reward terms if I do not get my preferred entry price (PENT).

Second point, that we discussed, was my problem with micro management. FT had some excellent and helpful advice in mind set in how to approach these trades.

One of the main points that stuck home was that my trading style was “playing not to lose”, looking back at my trading this is certainly true. So I am going forward adopt a more “playing to win” mind set.

To encourage this going forward, as part of my grading system, I will score each trade on whether emotionally I was playing to win or not to lose. And I will look at other ways to motivate myself to have the correct mind set when handling trades.

I went racing this week and that got me thinking about the winning mind set, and that the winners tend not to sail a race perfectly, but the real difference is not that they do not make mistakes, they just make less mistakes then the rest and it is how they react to and manage each mistake. I covered this in Golf is not a game of perfect.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I had 4 losers in a row, they were all grade A or B, both on the long or short side at good levels. So I was not too bothered by them. The one thing they did have in common, all of them only went 1 or 2 ticks on side and stopped me out within 5mins.

What is the problem

Looking back though my trading journal, when I have a losing streak of 3 or more trades in a row, the first 2 / 3 trades in these streaks, all have a MFE of 2 ticks or less and have an average time in trade of 4 mins.

When compared to a winning trade stats, which has an average time of 13 min and 24 seconds.

Why do I have this problem?

I am not reacting quickly enough to the market information that higher timeframe players are in control.

So when I start to get losing trades with little or no MFE and spend majority of their pitiful short lifespan off side, this information gives me an indication that the market is not going to respect my intraday levels, and I should be looking at the next timeframe up for levels. Which I did after the 3 losers this week.

What I am going to do

As soon as I get one trade that fits the following characteristics,

Grade A or B Trade

Has maximum of 2 ticks MFE.

Has a lifespan of under 5 mins.

This will be a red flag, I will check my context and plan to see if I should be looking at the higher time frame levels.

If I get 2 trades with these characteristics I will then take a mini break, and then move to the higher time frame levels.

In theory, if I add this to my best practices, in the best case scenario, I will save myself 2 losing trades before adapting to the market, and in the worst case scenario I will save myself 1 losing trade.

12th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

12th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 Fr CPI 1000 EZ Ind Prod 1200 UK IR
1330 US Initial jobs

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Rej from w.bz with up week with strong bull close m.bar 50 at 62.83

Previous Day – Inside Day. Neutral close. Id.hi 64.35 id.lo 63.97

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Neutral bias, bac t/l but held bz at 97-86 for cont of neutral, exp to hold / bof 36 and 97-86

15min – Long bias into upper range of bal and 60 sz, for cont exp to 14-11 and bac 30 for test of 36

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 20-36 then shorts t 18 t2 97; if price holds / bof 97-86 then longs t 19 t2 30-36

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 36 then longs t2 30-60 bac 60 t datr

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 97 t 86 bac 86 t 78 t2 68-60 t3 50-42

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.40 For long trades bac 63.86

11th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Man Prod 1035 Ger Auc 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Rej from w.bz with up week with strong bull close m.bar 50 at 62.83

Previous Day – Up day with bull close 50%@ 63.81

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long bias, for cont, exp 97-86 and bac of 86 for test of ath at 60

15min – Neutral bias, I/O till bac of bal 36-05 then join ftb

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 29-36 then shorts t 18 t2 05 bac 05 t2 04-86; if price holds / bof 94-84 then longs t 18 t2 29-36

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 36 then longs t 40-43 t2 50-60, bac 60 then t datr

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 86 then shorts t 69-61

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.43 For long trades bac 63.86

10th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

10th May 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Trade Bal 0930 UK Trade Bal 1500 US Jolts

Stats

DATR 74-

WATR 1.73+

WK.50% 62.83

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Rej from w.bz with up week with strong bull close m.bar 50 at 62.83

Previous Day – Up day with strong bull close 50%@ 63.79 tbc

General Bias – SC 2

Big Picture

60min – Long bias, for cont, exp 71-61 to holds and bac of 17 for test of ath at 60

15min – Long bias, for cont, exp 93-81 to hold and bac of 17 for test of 51-60

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds / bof 04-00 or 93-81 then longs t 14-17 bac 17 t 34-43 t2 50-60

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 14-17 then shorts t 04-00 bac 00 t93 t2 85-81; if price holds / bof 85-81 then longs t 04 t2 14

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 81 then shorts t 69-61 bac t 50-42

Red flag levels – For short trades 64.17 till 43 For long trades bac 63.61