It is coming to the end of the month; it is time for me to update my Trading Statistics.
I am also using this opportunity to simplify my use of trading statistics. Currently I have the majority of my stats on a cheat sheet for each market I trade.
Below is a part of my current cheat sheet for the Bund Market.
The simplify process is going to be in three steps
1) Check each stat on how practical it is to use and whether I use this on a regular basis. On each stat that I do not use regular or is not practical, I will then look at whether I should to do more research to make this practical or should I drop it.
The Open In Range and Breaks the previous day’s High, has a 79% chance of closing above previous day’s vpoc, 71% chance of that days open and a 68% chance of yesterday value high. Whilst this is helpful in determining a direction, it is not that practical to use in determining targets or places to get in and place stops.
I will do more research on this stat to use if I can make it more useful. I will do a study on where the low of the day is after breaking the high. This might make this particular stat more useful.
Any stat that is not practical I will drop.
2) I will drop any stat that is under 70% (or the inverse greater than 30%), I will focus only on the higher probability stats.
In the Mental Game of Poker 2, there is an interesting section on Chunking
While the size of working memory is limited, “chunking” is a way to get more out of it.
Chunking is when the brain compresses a lot of information into one small piece, kind of like a zip file or a cue card. Chunking can be illustrated in the way football teams name their plays.
Each football team has a unique language for plays that helps them communicate large amounts of data very quickly, for example, “Right Double Gun Montana Screen Left.”
Just these few words allow the quarterback to instantly give detailed instructions to the other 10 offensive players. Pages could be written about each player’s assignment during the play, however, intensive practice and study allows them to recall all of it with just a few words.”
from “The Mental Game of Poker 2: Proven Strategies For Improving Poker Skill, Increasing Mental Endurance, and Playing In The Zone Consistently” by Jared Tendler
I am going to work on improving my cheat sheet so that I can remember the stats easier during the day.
I am going to remove the percentages, I do not need to know the exact percentages, as they can be summarised with words, HP = High Probability and MP = Medium Probability.
And I will look at summarizing the whole stat play in a few words.
One of the things I have done is to have a tool on my charts, where I can draw the bands for standard deviation and 2 standard deviation of the MAE on a breakout and retest of previous day high. This helps me to keep the stat in front of my mind and gives a visual reference to take into account when looking at context and potential trades.
I will look at each stat to see if I can visually replicate that stat on the chart rather than just reply on the hypo or mini plan.
This is all part of my process of simplifying my trading without making it too simple.