Practical Trading Statistics

It is coming to the end of the month; it is time for me to update my Trading Statistics.

I am also using this opportunity to simplify my use of trading statistics. Currently I have the majority of my stats on a cheat sheet for each market I trade.

Below is a part of my current cheat sheet for the Bund Market.

Practical Trading Statistics

The simplify process is going to be in three steps

1) Check each stat on how practical it is to use and whether I use this on a regular basis. On each stat that I do not use regular or is not practical, I will then look at whether I should to do more research to make this practical or should I drop it.

For example

The Open In Range and Breaks the previous day’s High, has a 79% chance of closing above previous day’s vpoc, 71% chance of that days open and a 68% chance of yesterday value high. Whilst this is helpful in determining a direction, it is not that practical to use in determining targets or places to get in and place stops.

I will do more research on this stat to use if I can make it more useful. I will do a study on where the low of the day is after breaking the high. This might make this particular stat more useful.

Any stat that is not practical I will drop.

2) I will drop any stat that is under 70% (or the inverse greater than 30%), I will focus only on the higher probability stats.

3) Chunking

In the Mental Game of Poker 2, there is an interesting section on Chunking

While the size of working memory is limited, “chunking” is a way to get more out of it.

Chunking is when the brain compresses a lot of information into one small piece, kind of like a zip file or a cue card. Chunking can be illustrated in the way football teams name their plays.

Each football team has a unique language for plays that helps them communicate large amounts of data very quickly, for example, “Right Double Gun Montana Screen Left.”

Just these few words allow the quarterback to instantly give detailed instructions to the other 10 offensive players. Pages could be written about each player’s assignment during the play, however, intensive practice and study allows them to recall all of it with just a few words.”

from “The Mental Game of Poker 2: Proven Strategies For Improving Poker Skill, Increasing Mental Endurance, and Playing In The Zone Consistently” by Jared Tendler

I am going to work on improving my cheat sheet so that I can remember the stats easier during the day.

I am going to remove the percentages, I do not need to know the exact percentages, as they can be summarised with words, HP = High Probability and MP = Medium Probability.

And I will look at summarizing the whole stat play in a few words.

One of the things I have done is to have a tool on my charts, where I can draw the bands for standard deviation and 2 standard deviation of the MAE on a breakout and retest of previous day high. This helps me to keep the stat in front of my mind and gives a visual reference to take into account when looking at context and potential trades.

Practical Trading Statistics

I will look at each stat to see if I can visually replicate that stat on the chart rather than just reply on the hypo or mini plan.

This is all part of my process of simplifying my trading without making it too simple.

6 thoughts on “Practical Trading Statistics

  • 29/05/2016 at 05:11
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    Do you have anything like this stat cheat sheet on the Emini?

    Reply
    • 29/05/2016 at 14:27
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      Hi Nicole,

      I currently do not trade the ES, but I am looking at trading it for the first couple of hours. One of my tasks this weekend is draw up a stat sheet for the ES. So that I can starting watching it and see how it trades.

      Adey

      Reply
      • 30/05/2016 at 03:34
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        Hi Adey,

        Great let me know what you find out. I am looking forward to knowing more. I can tell you that I have been watching and learning the ES for awhile and it hits a lot of OTA supply/demand levels even in an intraday time frame. Maybe we could correspond a little? I would like to know your stats that you find. Maybe you could do something like what Tom Dante does in charging $15 per webinar with his findings like his latest ODDS webinar. I would be interested.

        Nicole

        Reply
        • 30/05/2016 at 12:07
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          Hi Nicole,

          From my little time watching the ES, it seems a good fit. I did the stats for ES yesterday and I will be typing them up into a cheat sheet as my next job. If it is okay, I will drop you an email so that we can correspond.

          I have not given any thought to charging for my stuff, as I am completely focused on improving my process and getting to my goals. But thanks for the compliment, that you think my stuff has value.

          Good luck with the week.

          Adey

          Reply
          • 30/05/2016 at 19:52
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            Hi Adey,

            Got your email. Thanks! I wanted to recommend Awais on http://www.eminiplayer.com and http://www.eminiplayer.net for recap videos that are very educational on the price action and context of the ES. The .com is free and the .net is $50 a month. There is also a daily trade plan and his levels are spot on so he would be great to get your feet wet in that particular market. He uses a combination of Supply/Demand and Support/Resistance with price action. Check it out. I am not paid to give this recommendation LOL!! He is a hidden gem and has years of back dated charts with levels and snapshots that will really shorten the learning curve.

            Take care,

            Nicole

          • 31/05/2016 at 07:18
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            Hi Nicole

            I will check him out. Thanks for the recommend.

            Good luck with the trading.

            Adey

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