Playing the Odds – Review

Today I watched the special webinar held by Tom Dante and Hugh Hawkins on statistics in trading, with a focus on certain statistics.

This webinar was called Playing the Odds.

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What you get is a 90-minute video which covers the following

How often does the Open Drive fail? What is the highest probability trade when you see it?

What is the probability of a gap filling in the EUR/USD using various stop sizes?

Gaps in FX: How large are these gaps and how often do they close on the same day? How often do they close within 6-12 hours?

Inside Days: How often do we break the high side? The low side? Either side? Both sides the same day?

What is the probability of the market hitting the inside day high/low on the day following the inside day failure pattern?

How well do Bullish and Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns work?

How well do Hammers and Shooting star candlestick patterns work?

Do certain days of the week have a directional bias?

What day of the week is the high or low more likely to occur?

If we break yesterday’s high or low overnight how often do we retest it during the day?

For European products, if we break yesterday’s high/low during the morning session, how often do we retest it during the afternoon session?

How often do we test the daily settlement price, the next day?

What time of day is the high and low set for the day?

If price closes out of value, how often does it break the high or low the next day?

Also provided is a pdf covering all the stats in the webinar.

Excel spreadsheet of the EURUSD stats

And 15 templates that can be used in RT Investor or Market Delta, so that we can these stats ourselves and play around with the criteria to suit our needs.

What I thought

Video quality is good but not HD, but with the PDF of the presentation then it is easy to check any details of the various stats close up.

Sound quality is okay, Hugh was not as clear as Tom, but I was listening at 1.5x speed and I had no trouble understanding it.

They cover a good amount of different statistics across the main futures markets and the 4 of the main currencies. These include Bund, EuroStoxx, Dax, ES and the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY.

There is plenty of edges that traders can use in their markets within this webinar and associated documents.

They do not go into detail in how to exactly trade these edges, but even so it would not take much work to fold these edges into a strategy.

My benchmark for any review is will this resource pay for itself by improving my trading. After all this is a business, and we should be only investing in anything that will give us a return on our investment.

At £14.99, I found it excellent value for money. It is a great introduction to what sort of stats we should be looking at in trading, there are definitely tradable edges within the stats provided and if you use RT Investor or Market Delta, there is a bunch of templates.

So if you are a user of either of these programmes and are interested in using stats in your trading, then you get a bunch of templates at .99 pence, and that is a massive time saver and to be honest a deal in my books.

Even if someone has no interest in replicating these stats themselves but are interested in using stats within their trading then this is a worthwhile webinar to watch for this price.

A couple of points to anyone thinking about using stats in their trading

A statistical edge may not always give you an entry but could give you an exit. For example, we may have a stat that a certain price point has a high probability of being tested during a certain time frame. I will be looking for trades using my current system to trade in that direction, and the target will be set by the statistics. So I will be looking to hold that trade till the stats is fulfilled or my system stops me out.

Also one of the questions asked was that a few of the stats had a probability of around 50%, which is basically a coin toss, and what was the point in trading that stat. Tom answered that the expectancy is not just the win rate but also the reward.

In more detail, if the reward is 2 for every 1 risked (2R) then we need a win rate of 33% to breakeven on this type of trade (not including costs or commissions). Whilst a probability of 50% is only a coin toss, if it deliveries more than a 1R in return then this trade has an edge, the bigger the return then the bigger the edge.

If you want to work this out for yourselves. The formula is as follows 1 / (1 + R size) e.g for a 2R return then 1 / (1 + 2) = 0.33 which is 33%.

Whilst a stat might only be a coin toss, it depends on what the return is to whether it has an edge.

You can see my review policy here

Link

Playing the Odds

Keywords

trader dante odds

2 thoughts on “Playing the Odds – Review

  • 07/05/2016 at 19:04
    Permalink

    Nice review, thanks! No doubt that the webinar has great value if you don’t use statistics in your trading yet, but… considering for someone (including you) who is already pretty seasoned in trading based on stats, was there an actual added value (for instance in comparison with the homework videos by Linnsoft: https://www.linnsoft.com/homework)? Or was it more a really good re freshener?

    Reply
    • 08/05/2016 at 10:15
      Permalink

      Hi

      The main interest for me and the added value was that I would get access to the templates for RT Investor. There was 8 templates for stats, that I had not got around to doing for myself. It takes me around 30 minutes on average to draw up a stats chart on RT, so I saw this as a time saver and at under 2 quid a chart it was a deal. Especially as some of these stats had been sitting on my to do list since the beginning of the year and I have not got round to doing them.

      Thanks for commenting.

      Adey

      But the Homework videos by Linnsoft are excellent resource and I used them as the basis to learn how to do statistics in RT, and would recommend anyone interesting in doing statistics with Rt to check them out.

      Reply

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