Bund Trade Review – 19th April

Bund Trade Review – 19th April

No sailing tonight. Behind in prep for the season so cannot start racing. So I have time to do my Bund trade review.

Good read of the market. Good focus. Played my levels. Remained focused and positive thought out the day. Did not mess around taking small scalps in the middle.

Holding trades for the bigger target is still a problem.

Followed by process and hypo 1 played out, but took a lot longer. Was wary of a possible breakout failure of the 16, missed it when it happens but that was due to be not nimble enough.

Trades where all Grade A or B.

So overall and okay day.

Bund Trade Review

19th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

19th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 Ger Zew 1330 US Build Per 1530 UK Carney

Stats

DATR 72+

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – Down range day with Bof of id.hi at 98 t id.lo @16 bac 16 t 162.69

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias – bof of id.hi and back into value, exp to test id.lo at 16 and possible breakdown

15min – Short bias – test 60 bz and rot back to lvn and p.low, for cont exp to hold 57-67 and bac 36

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds/bof 51 or 57-67 then shorts t 36, t2 27-16 bac 16 t 02 bac 03 t 95 (gap fill) t2 89-82 bac 82 t 62.69-58

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 36 or 16-01 then longs t 57-67 bac 67 t 76-82, if price holds 76-82 then shorts t 58 t 50 t2 36

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 80 then longs t 92-98

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.17 For long trades bac 63.16

18th April – Bund Trade Review

18th April – Bund Trade Review

I am back to posting my trade review, which I will continue to do for each trading day, except for Tuesday and Thursday as I leave for racing shortly after I finish trading.

Good day today, well focused and trading to plan. Took all my trades according to my hypo / mini plan, except one which was no data feed for that moment.

Was a bit slow at 7 but was stalking a short in the Stoxx on a possible breakout failure but that did not setup so no trade there.

Felt myself losing focus when it was in balance, but managed to re focus on the order and mini plan.

Bund Trade Review

18th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

18th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

NB Wk Crude News 1330 US Dudley 1630 US Auction

Stats

DATR 72+

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – Inside range day with neutral bear close.

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias – in large range between 98-16, with 2 tick bof of range hi after cash close

15min – Long Bias – for breakout at 98, should hold 70-58, if bac then possible bal and retest of balance low

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds /bof 96-97 then shorts t 70 t2 63-58, If price holds 63-58 then longs t 90; bac 50 then shorts t 38-28 t2 16, if price holds 28-16 then longs t 50

Hypo 2 – Down – if price breakouts at 16 then shorts t 89-81 bac 81 then t 49-32

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 98 then t18 t2 35-42 t 50-60

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63.98 For long trades bac 63.16

Working on improving my C Game

Working on improving my C Game

Traits that I display when I am trading at my worse. My  C game, as opposed to my A and B game.

These are the low hanging fruits to work on. These do not show up every day but the reduction / elimination of these tendencies will improve my whole trading game.

 

2016-04-16_1757

The C Game

Does not update journal

Looks at P/L and works out how many trades to get back flat

Gets distracted after entry

Easy distracted before entry

Does not update mini plan

Doses not look at hypos after session starts

Get a loser and starts to look for another trade straight away

Trades on setup with no attention to plan or context

Does not look at where stop and target until after entry

No TM – either going for Big winners or very small winners

Don’t pull the trigger

Breakdown

1. Describe the problem in as much detail as you can. Include thoughts, feelings, actions, and associated tactical decisions.

2. Explain why it makes logical sense to think, feel, react, or play that way. In other words, why does this problem occur?

3. Figure out how the logic in step 2 is flawed. Come up with a correction to that flawed logic. This correction can be used as an injecting logic statement. You can also write out a strategy that you can use to learn the correction.

4. Ask yourself why the correction you came up with will work. This is an extra step that reinforces the rationale behind the correction, and helps to firmly implant it in your mind

Grouping

Trading without a plan Revenge Trading Setup trading without thought to context
Does not update mini plan

Doses not look at hypos after session starts

Get a loser and starts to look for another trade straight away

Looks at P/L and works out how many trades to get back flat

Does not update journal

Trades on setup with no attention to plan or context

Does not look at where stop and target until after entry

No TM – either going for Big winners or very small winners

These can be grouped together as they tend to follow a string of losses or a down day

My thoughts are that of the depressive type and cannot be bothered.

A lack of focus and what focus is on the LTF rather than the big picture or context time frame.

Looking for the next quick set up to make the money back.

No plan on context or plan overall for the trade.

No clear thinking.

Take too many trades instead of 3-5 it can become 10-20. Over trading.

Don’t want to update journal or update plan in case I miss a trade and entering it into journal will recognise that I am taking trades that have no edge and / or I am over trading, and I do not want to spoil the journal with loads of shit trades.

Why does it happen

I do not like to lose, especially when they are shit trades. So I do not want to recognise that it is a shit trade by entering it into the journal thus avoiding the reality. Just want to make a good trade to make the money back and then enter it into the journal. Thus I become risk seeking.

This is flawed thinking because the eagerness to recover from a shit trade is that I break the trade process of having a plan and taking the best trade, which means I am more likely to make another shit trade thus compounding the situation and making it worse.

After a shit trade (any trade that is less than a B Grade), I will make a fresh mini plan including context, as this will give me the best opportunity to recover from this loss or string of losses.

Why will this work

Even if I miss a trade because I am doing a mini plan, it will give me a chance to take a break from market, and re assess the context. Most of the shit trades are from OK set ups but they are fading the context when I should be going with the context.

Logical statement

The hard work I have done to find an edge is not destroyed when I take a single bad trade, it is destroyed by trying to win the money back by taking subsequent trades without context and without a plan.

Fear of Loss
Gets distracted after entry

Easy distracted before entry

Don’t pull the trigger

These can be grouped together as these tend to happen after a string of winners.

Why does this happen

These feeling start to come after a couple of good trades back to back, which were profitable. And becomes stronger, the more trades that I take that are successful.

I do not want to spoil the results by taking another trade in case it is a loser. Or if I take the trade, I am uncomfortable with knowing the result and get distracted and poorly manage it.

I am still more focused on the results than the process. I do not want to lose. I want to be seen a successful and not a loser. Which again is a focus on results rather than the process.

Thus I becoming risk avoiding.

It is easy for me to say I will take every trade opportunity that presents itself. Obviously I am not doing that when I am playing my C game.

Logical statement

After every 2 good trades that are profitable, I will read the following logical statement out loud.

My ideal future will not be become a reality, if I don’t concentrate on taking the trade opportunities, which are presented to me now and during this session. Remember the Fastnet Rock.

Why will this work.

I need to remain myself that because I have done well, it is not a time to click down a gear and not follow my process. The Fastnet Rock reminder is that I did the exact thing in one of the Fastnet Races, I got to the rock with a clear lead in my class, and eased up the focus on the return to Plymouth and ended up 3rd. This still hurts, and I never did that again in racing, so I need to focus on that lesson from sailing into a motivation not to repeat this in my trading.

 

This process in improving my process and overall trading come from a recommendation on Twitter. Which fits in nicely if what I have learnt from Golf is Not a Game of Perfect.

Trading the Bund And Stoxx – Weekly Trading Review 11-15 April 2016

Trading the Bund And Stoxx – Weekly Trading Review 11-15 April 2016

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my updated trading plan and processes after completing the Price Ladder Course and integrating this into my current trading system.

The updated plan is pretty clear with when I should or should not use order flow, what I am looking for and what is my primary and secondary markets.

My current process of doing mini plans which enables to add more order flow set ups in to trade towards my major setups.

I have also updated my routines that I do before and after the session, I also have mini versions of these routines. The driver of this change has come from The Mental Game of Poker 2.

What did I do badly this week and what led me to do it?

The markets at various times did not provide me with opportunities, and I found it difficult to get back into focus mode after a few hours of twiddling my thumbs. This was also exasperated by the chatting to other traders, whilst this helps pass the time and valuable information can be found in discussing past trades and context, I find it difficult to stop and say that I need to focus on my trading. The problem is not the other traders, but me and the failure to put my trading first in these situations.

What specifically will I do next week to continue doing what I did best?

Keep following my routines and processes. And continue my work on visualisation and focus.

What specifically will I do next week to improve what I did worst?

As soon as price comes into an area of interest I will use the Pomodoro Technique to get into my focus mode and if I am in the middle of a chat then I will just excuse myself, with something terrible British like “Sorry, I have to focus now on this set up”.

Price Ladder Training Course Review

Price Ladder Training Course Review

Recently I have completed the Price Ladder Training Course By Futex. This is what I think of the course.

Please see my review policy here.

What is the Price Ladder Training Course?

The PLT is an online course that teaches the reading of order flow using the price ladder / DOM.

It is delivered online using a mixture of text, videos, drills and replays of the market.

The subjects include

INTRODUCTION TO THE PRICE LADDER PART 1

INTRODUCTION TO THE PRICE LADDER PART 2

PRICE LADDER ABSORPTION, RELOADING AND ICEBERGING

LARGE ORDERS ON THE PRICE LADDER

MANEUVERING AROUND ALGORITHMS ON THE PRICE LADDER

CONTRARIAN AND FADING SETUPS

BREAKOUT AND MOMENTUM SETUPS

DATA POINT TRADING

MONTH END TRADING

CENTRAL BANK TRADING

Each subject is followed by a chance to practise the new skill on the price ladder. At set times (twice a day) each day during the week, Futex will replay the order flow of a market, which has been specially selected to demonstrate the particular flow relevant to the skill just learnt. Giving the student a chance to put into practice what they have just learnt.

Interspersed throughout the course are structured drills, which give the student specific purposes and goals to practice during the session. These tend to take a full day.

It is an intensive 4 week course, with many of the drills requiring the student to set aside a complete day to complete.

Whilst Futex gives the student 8 weeks to complete the course, the drills and replays will require the student to be available at certain times. I would not recommend the course if you cannot commit the time over 8 weeks, to do the drills or replays, as the most benefit comes from the deliberate practice of these new skills.

What I think of Price Ladder Training

You can read my previous progress reports, as I completed the course at Part 1, Part 2, Part 3

The mixed approach of theory, replays and drills is very good with a logical progression in reading order flow, setups and applying it to the market.

The huge number of trades taken on the simulator over the course, has made me a lot more proficient in placing trades and managing trades in the real market. I estimated I took a years’ worth of trades over the 4 weeks, when compared to my normal number of trades per day.

Though one downside for me was when I went back to the Live market, it made me slightly too aggressive and this took a few days to get out of my system.

I already had a basic understanding of order flow and how to trade it before the course started, and at the end of the course my confidence and ability to read the flow has massively increased.

The drills also put the spotlight on some of my strength and weakness in my own trading, which has allowed me to factor these into my current trading style.

The course has also open up more possibilities in the markets I trade, thus adding to my current edge.

The important question for me is always the same. Will the cost of the course be paid for and more, by increasing my profitability over the long term. Answer to this is a simple yes.

I had to work out how I was going to implement order flow in with my current edge so that the two styles complemented each other. It has improved my trading, it has improved the profitability of individual trades (better RR), and it has proven me with more opportunities.

Would I recommend the course?

If you want to scalp or include order flow into your trading then the answer is yes. I certainly wish that resources like this was available earlier when I was starting out.

But you have to ready to commit time and energy, and I think that what you get out of this course will depend on how much time and focus you are willing to put in.

If you have any specific questions about my experiences with the PLT, then please ask them in the comments below and I will answer them.

Go to Price Ladder Training

Keywords

price ladder training futex

15th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

15th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ Trade Bal 1330 US Empire Man 1415 US Ind Prod 1500 US Mich Cons Exp

Stats

DATR 72+

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ERC.V down day with strong bear close close (m.bar 50% @ 63.60)

id.hi 63.98 id.lo 63.16

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias – in large range between 98-16 at weak daily bz, reaction exp (is this it done?) bac of id should give direction

15min – Short Bias – @bottom of range, looking for outside in trades till bac of id day

Hypo 1 – Down – if price bac 16 then shorts t 03, bac 03 then shorts t 96 (lvn/gap fill) t2 82-76 bac 82 then shorts t 58-48

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds/bof 16 or 03 then longs t 40 t2 55-85; if price holds 55–65 then shorts t 40

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 65 then longs t 70 t2 89-98

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63.98 For long trades bac 63.16

14th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

14th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 It CPI 1000 EZ CPI 1200 UK IR 1330 US Core CPI

Stats

DATR 71+

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ERC.V up day with strong bull close (m.bar 50% @ 63.59)

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias – bof of y.lo into d.bz and rej and into bal, making hl and then bac of 72 back to p.week val. Exp if price holds t/l or 72 then further upside to gap and back to p.week vpoc at 24

15min -Long Bias – for cont needs to hold t/l and bac 96 for gap and test of 17

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds/ bof 85 or (t/l) then longs t 96 bac 96, t 05 gap fill t2 17 bac 18 then t 24-29 (p.weekly / c.hvn)

Hypo 2 – Pullback / Range – if price holds 96 / 05 then shorts t 87 bac 87 then shorts 72 -64; if price holds 72-64 then longs t 85 t2 96

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 72 then shorts t 50-38

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.17 For long trades bac 63.44/38

13th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

13th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 Fr CPI 0800 Sp CPI 1330 US Core Retail 1530 Us Crude

Stats

DATR 70+

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – ERC.V down day with strong bear close (m.bar 50% @ 63.63)

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias – made hl and bac bz, hit hourly t/l MM and into a weak d.bz from 33-03 (exp reaction) for cont bac of 03 whilst hold 72

15min – Short Bias – into 60 bz, for cont needs to hold 43 and bac 24

Hypo 1 – Down / Range – if price holds / bof 24 or 14-03 then longs t (24) 43, if price bac 43 then t 52 t2 63-70, If price holds 63-70 then shorts t 43

Hypo 2 – Down – if price holds 43 and then bac 03 then shorts t 96 gap fill t2 89-82

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 70 then longs t 80 t2 90 bac 90 t 05 gap fill

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63.70 For long trades bac 63.03