US Non Farm Payrolls Tradeplan – April 1st

My first US Non Farfm Payrolls / NFP trade plan using the format taught at the Price Ladder Course by Futex.

I have only done one market the Bund, as a test and will be trading at on SIM.

Calendar

Historical Performance

What is the Range and 1 SD?

Number range for last 6 months is 150k

1 SD for the last six months is 55k.

Is there a trend in the data?

Data on the right is the oldest. Therefore since Oct 2014 slight downtrend.

What number would constitute a change in the trend?

300k plus would be a possible change in trend.

What would be a big beat/miss?

Exp is for 205k, so below 150k would be a big miss and above 260k would be a big beat

What is Range Profile on the Bund

Last 65 NFP

Last 12 NFP

What is the Daily / 240 Structure

Bund

240 mins

Daily



Hypo
EXP = 205K

EXP = Big Miss < 150k Exp 150k > and < 260k Big Beat > 260k
IM/SM IM – Move up thru hi at 84

SM – Move up to / thru 98

IM – Move to Bof 03/84

SM – fails to make new extreme or BOF and returns to SOC

IM – Move down thru lo at 03

SM – Follow thru to 82

Exec Get in on agg entry at 50% PB of IM T84

84 agg entry on orderflow on bac t 98

Look for BO (for scalp) or BOF at 98 for short

Looking to join the 50% PB of IM on agg and then fade BOF of 03/84

Agg entry on order flow at 63.03 on the downside for longs

Agg entry on order flow at 84 on the upisde

Looking to join on 50% of IM agg T03

Agg entry on orderflow on bac of 03 t 84

Aff entry on BO (for scalp) or BOF at 82 for long

5 thoughts on “US Non Farm Payrolls Tradeplan – April 1st

  • 01/04/2016 at 11:51
    Permalink

    Hi Adey,

    I have a few questions for you if you do not mind:

    1. How do you deal with ‘information overload’ in trading?

    With so many resources online, twitter personalities, websites, books, blogs, news to follow, how do you choose which ones to focus and learn from and which to ignore. How to you make it manageable. Trading often creates a FOMO from an informational perspective as well as from actual trading. I often find my pursuit to learn more, creates cognitive dissonance and undermines my own trading decisions and confidence – but yet, you need resources to progress.

    2. Would you mind sharing the calendar you sourced the graph for NFP from, assuming you didn’t create it yourself in excel

    3. Given your detailed NFP plan, I would appreciate if you could post afterwards how you directly used your plan in your trades

    4. Finally, and hopefully not too much to ask, can you explain your reasoning behind a big beating of NFP expectations is negative for bunds.

    All the best,
    Carlton.

    Reply
    • 01/04/2016 at 12:06
      Permalink

      Also,

      I’m interested in the Price Ladder Course by Futex, but not sure they cover my markets (ZB/ZN). I’ve tried to access a list of markets they trade and focus on, but struggling to find anything concrete. Can you let me know the main markets the course focuses on?

      Reply
      • 01/04/2016 at 12:14
        Permalink

        Hi I will also answer this tomorrow. I will go thru the drills and see what the choice of markets are on offer.

        Adey

        Reply
    • 01/04/2016 at 12:06
      Permalink

      Hi Carlton,

      As it is so close to NFP, I will not be able to give your a proper answer, but I will fully answer you questions tomorrow. Good luck with the rest of the session.
      ]
      Adey

      Reply
    • 02/04/2016 at 11:45
      Permalink

      I have answer your questions in the following blog post here

      Let me know if you have any further questions.

      Good trading

      Adey

      Reply

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