US NFP Trade Review – April 1st

This is my US NFP Trade review using order flow. NFP came out at 215K

Which fitted the Hypo below. Initial Move is IM and Secondary Move is SM. SOC is Scene of the Crime, the origin price when news came out.

Tradeplan Hypo
Hypo for a beat or miss within 1 SD (55k)

Therefore, I was expecting a rot down and pull back to 50% and then a rot down with a failure to continue and a return to the scene of the crime. With a small beat I was not expecting that we would test the 15-04, but was looking at 163.24 the low of the day before returning to the scene of the crime.

NFP Trade Review Order Flow
NFP Trade Review Order Flow using Jigsaw DOM

Overall Summary of Trade Review

Not flexible enough to release that the failure of the stall at 50% of the Initial Move, would lead to a possible test of the Scene of the crime. Gut instinct was right, but I followed my plan. Took the retest, scaled out just before the SOC and took the second part off as I thought we could end up in balance between the 45 and 56 for a bit which is common. But there was no evidence of this and more a reason just to bank the scalp.

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