Weekly Trading Review 25-29 April

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

It took me a few days to get back to normal, after over doing for the past few weeks. I would say that I was not back to feeling 80 percent till at least Wednesday.

I took only A and B grade trades, and followed my processes.

How did I do it. I am finding that reading my trade profile and focusing on what my C game traits looked like, which allows me to head off at the pass, the bad traits that lead me to taking C and worse type trades.

Also focusing on the R aspect of the reward has kept me out of the trades which whilst are ok setups but have a low expectancy, thus keeping my mental and emotional powder dry.

Also the logical statements have helped to keep my focus in the right place.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

After making good steps in improving my micromanagement issues, I had issues with this again during the week, 2 steps forward to 1 step back. The good side is that my first scale is larger around my previous second scale, but I am now having issues with the second scale.

Why

Obvious fear of loss is a primary concern, but it is more deeper than that, as after the first scale then there is no loss. It is more losing the gain I already have.

Looking at the small sample, of the new data set, one problem is that a good percentage of my trades that I am taking profits at the right time and that particular set up is a scalp, and I should be exiting at this place not looking for a bigger move. And others I get out and leave the majority of the move on the table.

So it comes down to fear and a mixture of not identify whether this is a scalp or an intraday swing. I have a process in place, but obviously it is not clear enough for me to be confident enough to treat the 2 trades differently.

What am I going to do

I discussed this problem with the missus, and it became clear that whilst I know the difference between the setups, i.e a scalp and intraday swing, I could not articulate it clearly. If I cannot articulate this in a way that I can explain it to a non-trader then my understanding of this is not at a level where I am going to able to implement this consistently.

Over this weekend I am going to work on this and come up with some corrections to apply to my trading. I will write a further post on this over the weekend.

Update on last week’s goals

I completed last week’s goal of reducing my working hours, spending more time on my hobbies, eating and drinking regularly and eased myself back to exercising. I will continue with this programme.

Main goals this week

Continue to focus on my process and taking A/B grade setups.

Work on my new process on identifying whether the trade is a scalp or intraday swing.

29th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Retail Sales 0745 Fr CPI 0800 Sp GDP
1000 EZ CPI 1330 US Core PCE 1445 US Chic PMI

Stats

DATR 71

WATR 1.72-

WK.50% 63.29

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Down week with good volume and strong bear close into a weekly buy zone 62.33 – 60.81 (ftb but weak)

Previous Day – Break up of ID, with a neutral up day with neutral bull close

General Bias – SC 1. Today last trading day off the month.

Big Picture

60min – Long Bias, PB from 60sz, for cont , exp to hold 62.22 and bac 62.79

15min – Long bias, for cont, exp is to hold 27-22 and bac 50 fo0r test of 67-79

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 39-28 then longs t 48 t2 56 t3 67-79 bac 79 then t 02-09 and ext t 22-39

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds /bof 67-76 then shorts t 47 t2 37; if price holds / bof 28-21/14 then longs t 45

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 21 then shorts t 96-92 t2 76-62

Red flag levels – For short trades 62.79 For long trades bac 62.21

28th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

28th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Span CPI 0855 Ger Unemploy 1045 It Auc
1300 Ger CPI 1330 US GDP

Stats

DATR 72

WATR 1.72-

WK.50% 63.29

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Down week with good volume and strong bear close into a weekly buy zone 62.33 – 60.81 (ftb but weak)

Previous Day – Normal up range day with strong bull close

2016-04-27_2050

General Bias – SC 1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral bias, for t/c to long bias exp for to hold 83-71 and bac 31

15min – Long bias, for cont exp is for 00-93 to hold and 15 to bac

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 00 or 93 then longs t 15-19, t2 26-31 bac 31 t 48 t2 65-80

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds 15-19 or 26-31 then shorts t 00 t2 93 bac 93 t 84 t2 76-71; if price holds 84 or 76-71 then longs t 93 t 07-15

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 71 then shorts t62 t2 46-53

Red flag levels – For short trades 62.31 For long trades bac 61.71

27th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

27th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Cons Climate 0930 UK GDP 1500 US Pending Home
1530 Us Crude Oil 1900 US FOMC

Stats

DATR 72

WATR 1.72-

WK.50% 63.29

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Down week with good volume and strong bear close into a weekly buy zone 62.33 – 60.81 (ftb but weak)

Previous Day – ERC.V down day with strong bear close into wide d.bz ftb at 61.78-60.81

General Bias – SC -2

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias – erc.v rot down into minor bz 63-42 and then ext after cash close, exp to hold 61.88 and bac 42 for cont

15min – Short Bias – exp to hold 61.63 and bac 46 for cont

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 63-72 or 88 then shorts t 42-34; if price holds / bof 42-34 then longs t 63

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 34 then shorts t 20 t2 03-81; if price holds 03-81 then longs t 34

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 88 then longs t 19-34

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 61.88 For long trades bac 61.34

26th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

26th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1330 US Durable Goods 1400 Us HPI Comp 1500 US Consumer Confidence

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.72-

WK.50% 63.29

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Down week with good volume and strong bear close into a weekly buy zone 62.33 – 60.81 (ftb but weak)

Previous Day – ERC.V down day with bear close, with a bac of id.lo at 62.33

General Bias – SC -2

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias – breakdown of bal, and test of minor bz at 99-88 and into mini bal. for cont exp for price to holds 33 and bac 88 for gap fill at 79 and test of nvpoc at 161.34

15min – Neutral bias – in bal 23-88, trade O/I until bac or bof

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds/bof 19-24 or 33 then shorts t 00-88 bac 88 t 79-74 bac 74 t 50-42 t2 61.34 with ext at 20-03

Hypo 2 – Range – if price bac 33 then longs t 44-48 t2 67-80; if price holds 44-48 or 67-80 then shorts t 33 t2 19

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 80 t 89 t2 03

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.33 until 64-80 For long trades bac 61.88

25th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

25th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 Ger Biz Exp 1040 Ger Auc 1400 Fr Auc 1500 Us New Home

Stats

DATR 69-

WATR 1.72-

WK.50% 63.29

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Down week with good volume and strong bear close into a weekly buy zone 62.33 – 60.81 (ftb but weak)

Previous Day – Neutral range day with neutral close. ID id.hi @ 62.68 id.lo @62.33

General Bias – SC 0

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias – in mini bal above 60/d.bz 62.33 -19 within the fore mentioned weekly buy zone bac of 19 deeper test of w.bz, next daily buy with w.bz is 161.79-60.81

15min – Neutral bias – in bal, bac of bal 62.68-62.33(19) for direction

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 42-33 then longs t 48-51; if price holds /bof 62-68 then shorts t 51-48 t2 42-33

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 68 then longs t 74-48 t2 82-87; bac 87 then longs t 97-03

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 33 then shorts t 19 (d.low) bac 19 then shorts t 62.00-61.88

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.87 For long trades bac 62.19

Weekly Trading Review 17-22 April

Weekly Trading Review 17-22 April

What did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

I followed my trading process and my hypos from the trade plan. I took only Grade A and B setups that fitted within my hypo and my mini plans.

This was helped by focusing on the R potential of each possible trade, which helped focus my mind on the better trades, as some trades I skipped, were good setups in all aspects expect the potential RR.

What did I do badly this week and what lead me to do it?

I was not very well on Thursday afternoon and Friday. I would not say I was ill as that is being over dramatic, but let’s just say, I was very under the weather. So I did not trade for these sessions and used the time to clean up the charts and update my stats and do some research.

Why?

Too many consecutive 14 hrs days, along with doing 8 hour days at the weekends, no exercise, not sleeping well and not eating. From Monday to Thursday, I had a plate of chips, 4 slices of toast, a chicken sandwich and a bag of mints. This is not what I had every day, that was the total food consumption for the 4 days. The previous 4 weeks have followed a very similar pattern.

In summary, I have totally fucked up the work / life balance and looking after ones’ health. The importance of this is very well explained by @breakingoutbad in this excellent post.

Why did I neglect this work / life balance?

This is an old habit resurfacing, of trying to brute force my way to success.

It has happened before, I start to see better and better results in my processes, and part of mind goes, this is working, so fuck it, more of this can only be good, and I ramp up the intensity and my progress starts to slow, so I ramp it up more until something breaks.

The good news, from lessons learnt when it has happened in the past, that this is normally just when I am close to making a step up in my performance. I have also have learnt from past experience, that whether I actually make that step up, is 100% dependent on how I manage my behaviour from this point of onwards.

I can carry on pushing on so hard that I actually start going backwards in my progress and then do something stupid that sets me back months and miss the set up, or I can slack off so much that I lose the momentum and do not make the step up.

What am I going to do?

I am going to limit my working hours for each day, during the week to 10 hours, max 12 hrs.

I am going to limit my working hours for each day at the weekend to 4 hours max 5 hrs.

I am going to eat at 2 meals a day.

I am going to restart my exercise programme.

I am going to start doing my prep for the sailing season.

I am going to allow myself to actually go out and have a few beers now and again. Be slightly more social.

And the most importantly, I am going to spend a bit of the time at the weekend with the missus, rather sitting at my computer working from 1100 to 1900 every Sat and Sun.

On the trading side, I am focusing on the following

Implementing my processes during the trading day

Doing the end of day reviews and it is okay to miss one or two without feeling guilty

Working on my improving my C game.

At the weekend,

End of week review

Update Stats

2 Hours of deliberate practice on Sunday

Weekly Trading Prep.

It time to really focus on the core aspects that will help me make that step up.

I am finishing this post and the one on Why we should do our own stats, and then I am fucking off, going to go to a BBQ with the wife and drink some cider.

Have a good weekend.

We should do our own trading statistics.

We should do our own trading statistics.

When I hear other traders mention statistics on a market, I always do the research myself, before I use that trading statistic, as it gives me confidence in the stat and also a better understanding of what makes the stat tick, which then helps me implement into my live trading.

Trading statistics
Bund – How often is there an inside day after a day where volume and range is above 1 SD.

The trading statistic I have heard a couple of times over the past week or so, from a trading buddy, was how often is the previous day’s high or low is broken, or how uncommon an inside day is, and the effect that volatility has on this stat, i.e. that an inside day is less common (the high or low is more likely to be tested) after volatility.

My research shows on the markets I trade Bund and Stoxx, that an inside day happens about 15% of the time, which confirms the stats that I heard from my friend.

But when I added volatility, defined by range and volume, that within normally volatility (equal or under 1 Standard Deviation) then the inside day happens about 10% of the time, and when volatility is outside 1 SD, then an inside days happens about 20% of the time, so volatility increases the chances of an inside day, not decreases the chances.

So whilst there is still a low percentage chance of inside day whether there is volatility or not, that is not the point. We must confirm our statistics ourselves if we are going to use them as an edge within our trading.

Please see the Bund on Friday for an example of this.

21st April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

21st April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Retail sales 1245 EZ IR 1330 US Philly Fed Man 1345 EZ Depo Rate
1430 ECB Presser

Stats

DATR 69-

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – Down day with strong bear range close

General Bias – SC -2

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias – in bal and erc rot down to LL after cash close for t/c to short bias, exp is for LH (47) and bac 19 then 09

15min – Neutral bias – for cont exp for a LH at 34 or 47 and bac of 19

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 34-40 then shorts t 19 t2 13-09 bac 09 t 03-95, bac 03 t 89-82 bac 82 t 69-58

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 13-09 or 03 then longs t 25 t2 34 bac 34 t 47-52; if price holds 47-52 then shorts t 34 t2 25

Hypo 3 – Up –if price bac 47 then longs t 58 t2 65-75

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.09 For long trades bac 63.74

20th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

20th April 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 0930 UK Ave Earn 1500 US Existing Home 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 71-

WATR 1.74-

WK.50% –

M.50% –

Weekly Summary – Up week with strong bull close

Previous Day – Down range day with Bof of id.lo at 16, either we see a cont move down or back into va and more bal

General Bias – SC -1

Big Picture

60min – Short Bias – bof of id.lo at 16 give a bof and retunr to bal va, for the cont down price should hold 47-60 and bac 09, a bac of 47 with strength is red flag and a bac of 60, exp for cont in bal

15min – Neutral bias – bac of t/l and a HH, for change to long bias, should put in a hl (poss around 25) and bac o/n high of 48,

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 47-60 then shorts t 25, bac 25 then t 16-09, bac 09 then t 03-95 bac 03 t 89-82 bac 82 t 69-58

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds 25 then longs t 47 bac 47 t 60, if price holds/bof 60 then shorts t 32

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 60 then longs t75-82 t2 88-94

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.09 For long trades bac 63.60