23rd March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

23rd March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 Ger Auc 1240 Ger Buba 1400 US New Home 1400 USD Crude

Stats

DATR 84-

WATR 2.00-

WK.50% –

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Inside week with bull close hi 62-81 / lo 61.02


Previous Day – Down day with range bear close lo 62.19 bac t 79 gap fill

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc -1

Big Picture

60min – Neutral Bias, Bof of 00 and return to 60bz 30-19, exp to hold val or sz at 56-62 and test lower to find buyers, with bac of 19 or bof

15 min – Short bias, to hold 15/60 sz at 56-63 and test lower

Hypo 1 – Range – If price holds 40 val or 55-63 then shorts t 30 t2 19; if price holds / bof 19 then longs t 40 t2 55-63

Hypo 2 – Down – If price bac 19 then shorts t 08-01 t2 92-88 t3 79-70(gap fill) bac 70 t 50-42

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 56 then longs t 68-75; bac 82-87; bac t 96-05

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63 For long trades bac 162.19

22nd March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 Fr Serv PMI 0830 Ger Man PMI 0900 Ger IFO 0930 UK CPI
1000 Ger ZEW 1345 US Man PMI

Stats

DATR 85-

WATR 2.00-

WK.50% –

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Inside week with bull close hi 62.81 / lo 61.02

Previous Day – Neutral down day with bear close

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 0

Big Picture

60 min – Neutral Bias, rej of sz 00-41 and LL at support; exp LH

15 min – Neutral Bias, rej of sz with erc.v and into down trend, rej of 60.s and pullback and into bal. exp bac will provide s/t direction. Hi 62.52/ Lo 62.52

Hypo 1 – Range – If price holds / bof 47-52 then shorts t 40 t2 33-30; if price holds / bof 33-30 then longs t 40 t2 47-52

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 52 then longs t 60 t2 64 t3 73-81 bac 81-886 bac 86 t 95-00

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 30 t 19; bac 19 t11 bac 99-88

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.52 For long trades bac 162.19

21st March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1035 Ger Auct 1400 Us Exist Home Sales 1400 Fr Auc 1530 Us Auc

Stats

DATR 85-

WATR 2.00-

WK.50% –

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Inside week with bull close hi 62-81 / lo 61.02

Previous Day – Narrow up day with neutral bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias sc 1

Big Picture – 60min – Long bias / 15min neutral/ in bal bac 62.81/62.33 for direction. Trade at extremes back to mid till bac and then join

Hypo 1 – Range – If price holds/ bof 73-81 then shorts t 65.57; if prices holds / bof 44-33 then longs t 57/65

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 81 then longs t 96 t2 10-24 ext t3 63.40

Hypo 3 – Down – If price bac 33 then shorts t 62.22-10 bac 10 then t 98-90 t2 79

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 81 For long trades bac 162.33

My Week and a Progress Report on Price Ladder Training

My Week and a Progress Report on Price Ladder Training

14-18 March

As I mentioned in last week’s review that I am focusing on 2 areas to improve my trading.

1) Participating in the Futex Price Ladder Training Course, to improve my Dom reading skills and to work on my no fills on the Bund.

2) Working on my confidence and self-belief with visualisation.

Price Ladder Training – Halfway Progress Report

I am enjoying the course, learning loads, cementing other knowledge and improving my confidence.

No real trading this week as I was on Part 2 of the course and this consists of 5 days of Micro Scalping Drills on Sim that take place over a whole trading day. No time left for live account trading, missed out on some great set ups but I am playing the long game here.

I am not going to too much details about what I have learnt content wise on the course so far, as you can read all about the course syllabus here.

What have I learnt about myself as trader so far

Dom Reading

I knew more than I thought about reading the DOM, but this course has helped formalise this in a more structured form.

This in turn has helped me organise my own Jigsaw Dom to provide me the information in a cleaner format and get rid of some information which I did not need.

Planning

Futex provide a drill sheet with a plan for the day. I found that I worked a lot better if I read the Futex plan and then wrote out my own plan beforehand basically covering the Market I am trading, size, the set ups I am looking for and targets and stops. The fact of writing my own plan helped me focus on what I was trying to achieve with that days drill.

Focus

As these drills took all day and was micro scalping, there was lot of trades during the each sessions, between 60-100 trades over the whole trading day. So staying focused was important and it is hard to stay this focused for whole sessions at a time. I used the Pomodoro Technique, which is 25 mins work followed by 5 minutes break. I would get up from the desk and stretch, make a tea and then get back to it. This helped maintain my focus.

I have used this technique during my real trading but only when I felt my focus was slipping, but I intend to incorporate this every day, as it was very helpful in maintain my edge during the day. The biggest drawback is sometimes getting a set up as when I was meant to be taking a break. I would take the setup but on exit then take a break for slightly longer.

VPOC

In my current trading system, I don’t tend to trade around the VPOC, only certain setups call for a trade at the VPOC. Trying to micro scalp the micro balance that formed this week around the VPOC, was hard work, a losing proposition for me and was too much of a drain on the emotion energy and focus. Though this is not a time to completely lose focus as the eventual move away is something to be in.

Afternoons

Basically I was a lot better in the AM session. Found the PM session a lot harder to read, a lot harder to maintain focus and I was more likely to do stupid shit in the afternoon.

To improve my afternoon focus, I am looking to implement this suggestion from @PastaTrader_Fab in the this article from Breaking Out Bad

Though I suspect that Fabio’s climate is slightly better than a damp, cold English south coast.

Open

I tend not to trade the cash open, but as most of the drills required me to take a micro scalp on the open, I was forced to trade it. It was a lot more readable than I had previous thought and some of my best scalps of the week was off the opening order flow.

Anticipation

Getting in too early was sometimes a problem, I sometimes got in too early before the order flow showed itself properly on the Dom. I got better at waiting for this as the practice started to cement what I was looking for in the order flow as the week progressed.

Second chances

In my real trading I would sometimes get a no fill or miss an entry , I would then sometimes see some order flow that would enable me to second chance, but I many times I could not take these trades as I would be using my original stop and targets for the Risk and Reward calculation and the RR would not add up.

This week has shown me that I can micro scalp this order flow in the direction of my target with smaller stops and get a decent RR, of 2-3R.

Where am I wrong and is there an opposing trade

In my real life trading, I would be looking at an area for a trade, and whilst I was looking at this area I would be looking at where I would be wrong, where I think the first trouble area if I am right and possible entry points. Very rarely would I be looking at trades in opposing directions. This week has taught me that in certain areas, that I should be considering that if I am wrong, there could micro trade set up on the opposing direction, that will become based on the order flow of all the other traders that where wrong as well and this opportunity should be considered.

Lose as much as I can Drill.

Very interesting drill. Very simple, lose as much money as you can across the AM and PM session using 4 lots. I went in to the session with the plan to trade opposite of my trading system. And it lost money, so that was something of a confidence boost to me. Also this was the last day of the week, which followed 2 days of being in the market constantly (was not allowed to be flat) but micro scalping, no position trading. To be frank, I was on my chin straps, and struggled with focus during that day. This just reinforced that focus and energy during the week, needs to managed carefully.

Shit load of Trades

A great thing about this course, is the number of trades taken, and the immediate feedback from the market on the results. I have probably taken in the last 5 days about 6 months’ worth of trades. This has given me a certain confidence in the ability to manage the trades on a short term basis and a more fluid way of handling orders on the Dom.

Bund and No fills

The fecking Bund, is still a fecking fecker when it comes to fills even in micro scalping. To prove it, I recorded me trading the Bund in one of the PM sessions here.

Hard Stop

Whilst having the confidence of managing a trade without a stop order in the market and to get out where the trade is wrong, sometime the market will take off and trying to get out can be a pain, and can result in getting out with a lot bigger loss than planned. For any of these techniques I use in real life, as of now, I have a plan on how to get out, one chance to get out on a minor pull back and then a market order on any further adverse movement and I would have an emergency stop in the market to limit any loss.

Flatten button

Unlike my other Dom, the Flatten button does not pull all the other limits orders in the book. Lucky I learnt this on Sim and on the day of lose as much as I can.

Visulation

Had some great tips from Diontrader this week on visualisation. I am continuing this practice before the open and once before bed. This has proved to beneficial and I feel a lot calmer and focussed during the sessions. The real test will be once I go back to the real market.

17th March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ CPI 1200 UK IR 1230 US Philly Fed 1400 US JOLTS

Stats

DATR 97+

WATR 2.02+

WK.50% 62.11

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Down wk with bear close (t2 61.07 hit)

Previous Day – Neutral up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias sc 1

Big Picture – 60 min – Neutral / 15 min up trend / needs to bac 78 to cont and hold 15bz / s at 50-42 for test of 95 and 11-22

Hypo 1 – Up – if price bac 78 then longs t 90-95 bac 95 t 11-22

Hypo 2 -Range – if price holds / bof 78 then shorts t 50-41; if price holds 50-41 then longs t 65 t 78

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 41 then shorts t 35-31 bac 31 then shorts t 26-20 t2 14-09

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 78 For long trades bac 161.04

16th March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Claimant Count 1035 Ger Auc 1230 UK Budget release
1230 US Core CPI 1430 Us Crude

Stats

DATR 97+

WATR 2.02+

WK.50% 62.11

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Down wk with bear close (t2 61.07 hit)

Previous Day – Neutral down day with strong bear close td1 at 61.02 hit, t2 at 60.81

Hourly Bias – Short Bias Sc – 1

Big Picture – OIR rot up to p.val and rej, sic and rot down thru y.low and test of id low at 61.03

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 03-93 then longs t 14 t2 26 t3 32-36 bac 36 then longs t46-54; if price holds 46-54 then shorts t 36 t2 26 t3 20

Hypo 2 – Down – if price holds 26-36 then shorts t 08-03. bac t 92-81; if bof 81 then longs t 26, if bac 81 t 66-60

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 54 t 67-78

Red flag levels – For short trades 60.81 For long trades

15th March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 Fr CPI 0900 It CPI 1230 US Core Retail / PPI
1400 Us Biz Inv

Stats

DATR 97+

WATR 2.02+

WK.50% 62.11

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Down wk with bear close (t2 61.07 hit)

Previous Day – Trend down day with strong bear close, with BOF of ID high and close inside the range, t 61.02 t2 60.81

Hourly Bias – Short Bias Sc – 2

Big Picture – Break up of Bal to test p.w.val and rej back into bal with erc.v rot down to ibr.l and then ext of rot after cash close on low volume

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 62-74 then shorts t 45 t2 30-20 bac 20 t 64.04-01 bac 01 then t .81 bac 81 t 60

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds/bof 25 or 04-01 then longs t 45 t2 62-74; bac 74 t 85-96

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 96 then longs t 07-17 t2 22

Red flag levels – For short trades 61.74 For long trades 61.04

14th March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1000 EZ Ind Prod 1400 Fr Auction

Stats

DATR 97+

WATR 2.02+

WK.50% 62.11

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Down wk with bear close (t2 61.07 hit)

Previous Day – Up range day (idx1) hi 61,96 / lo 61.03. Mother lo 60.81

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 0

Big Picture – 60min in downtrend, test 60.bz/d.bz at 80-60 and now pullback in play, tested 60.resistance at 61.96 and into bal. bac or bof of bal will give intraday direction. TU 62.47 (vpoc) t2 62.61 (w.vpoc and comp.lvn) TD 61.30-20 (HVN0 t2 61.04-81(d.lo/hvn/dlo/15.bz)

Hypo 1 – Range – If price holds / bof 54/41 then longs t 60 t2 80-85; if price holds 80-96 then shorts t 60

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 51 then shorts t 30-20 t2 61.04-81, bof 81 then longs t 04

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 96 then longs t 17-21 bac 21 t 45-47 t2 61 t3 73-96, if price holds 73-96 then shorts t 61 t2 45

Red flag levels – For short trades 61.96 For long trades 61.49

Weekly Review 7-11th March

Weekly Review 7-11th March

My review for this week will take a slightly different twist. I am going to discuss where I am with my trading generally, and the current problems, and why I have them and what I am doing about it.

I have not traded as much as this week as normal due to a couple of reasons, one is the ECB announcement, which resulted in not that many setups on Thursday(for my system) and a particular high no fill rate on Friday. And the other reason will come clear further down in my weekly review.

Image courtesy from Tom Dante

Where I am

I have an edge and I am profitable. Filtering my trades for the best opportunity and only taking them in selected areas has reduced the number of trades but increased my winrate by 10% and by exp by 1.5 ticks.

I am working constantly not to make my current system more complex but to keep it simple and streamlined. I am still educating myself but in the view of not adding to the system but in improving the ease of use, so everything that I consider must improve but not add to the system complexity.

Current Problems

I have 2 current problems, both are linked to each other.

Problem 1

Micro managing the Intraday Swing Trades (IDS)

The problem is that on the trades I intend to hold for longer, I end up micro managing them so that I do not maximise the potential profits. I have been working on this for a while and I have seen an improvement but still have a way to go.

Why I do I have this problem

1. Generally lack of confidence in my own ability to do well.

2. That I find it hard to differential once I am in a trade, between a trade that I should be managing as an IDS or a scalp. I always easier for me, to manage everything as a scalp (no shit, Sherlock). Thus I am taking the easiest route mentally which ties in with my lack of confidence.

How I am solving it?

I had coaching call with Kam Dhadwar on the 29/2, about this problem and we discussed various areas to implement to improve my general lack of self-belief. I am implementing these ideas over a month and will do a full article on this process at the end of the month.

I am working on improving my trade plan and process to help me to get setup before entry on how I will be managing IDS and scalps. As I feel at the moment that some of the areas of interest can be IDS or scalps depending on the context of the day. I am not doing enough preparation beforehand to help me decide what the trade should be.

Am I expecting a reaction off a level or am I expecting this area to be a turning point and if I do expect it to be a potential turning point is this an aggressive level or a confirmation level.

I am going to spend some time on a matrix which tells me depending on the context how I should be treating each level. I have a rough version that has helped and I will work on improving it and simplifying it.

I am going to be looking at other people’s trade plan including FT71’s Traderbite to see if there is anything I can do to simplify my trade plan.

I have implemented a grading system, courtesy of Kam Dhadwar and this article on objectively grading trades and days

I am grading my mental side before I start trading, I grade each individual trade(with a higher weighting for whether I managed correctly in regard to my tradeplan and whether this should be and IDS or scalp) and then I grade the whole day.

As I have mentioned before, I track where price goes after I exit to see what happens, as part of my metrics I now track my exit vs the maximum favourable excursion after I exit. This will help in tracking whether I am improving.

Problem 2

No fills or as it know by some of my trading friends as an Adey.

I accept that I am not going to get filled on every trade. And in particular it is a Bund problem, I do not have that much of a problem in the Stoxx, I get the occasionally no fill but generally I get filled. Though I have a very much smaller sample size. My best IDS trades I rarely get filled on in the Bund.

I have tried various methods, trigger bars (this either got me in too early or too late), reading the Dom, not particular successful mainly got me too early, or I could not read it well enough to find an entry.

Why I do I have this problem

1. Partly this is my risk adverse nature, that I place the order so close to where I am wrong that I am likely not to get filled.

2. Partly a Bund problem, as it is not a problem in the Stoxx, and I place the place the orders using the same process.

3. Not skilled enough in Dom reading to use that as a trigger.

How I am solving it?

To solve part 1, I implemented a process that means I place an order the same way each time, and have added wiggle room for the Bund, this has been only partly successful. So this ties into my grading system for levels, I need to be able to tell beforehand which levels I am going to be aggressive on and willing to give up a few ticks, if I do not get filled on and which levels I can wait on.

To solve part 3, and one of the reason why my trading has been light this week, I have decide to do the Futex Price Ladder training course, I started this on the 7th March

I have decided to do this for the following;

1. Improve my Dom reading skills

2. Work on my self-confidence, some of the drills will take me out of my comfort zone, and that will be a good thing.

The downside is that it could reinforce my habit of micro managing trades. This is something I am aware of, and will be working on this during the course.

One perceived downside is that it takes me out of live trading for quite a few days, whilst studying and doing the drills.

This actually works for me, when I was professional sailor, any course I took I was always the hardest worker and performed very well, because if I was going to take time out and pay for the damned thing, then I was always going to the most value as possible out of the course materials and the chance to improve my skills.

As always, I gave consideration on the cost of the course against the likely hood of this improving my profit potential. Based on my stats, if this course get me in 10% of my missed trades, then it will pay for itself in one week. That is a potentially good return on investment.

At the end of the course I will do a full article on my experience and thoughts of the course. Though so far I enjoying it and have a couple of sweaty moments in the drills (FFS, it’s on sim, HTFU), and my Dom reading skills have improved already.

So over the next three weeks I will still do my trade plans every day and post them, but will not be posting my end of day market review. Just due to time constants. My dyslexia means it takes fecking ages to ensure that my posts actually make sense to anyone apart from me, and I want to save that time to focus on the course.

11th March 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 German CPI 0800 Sp CPI 0930 UK TB 1030 IT Auc
1330 US Price Index

Stats

DATR 79-

WATR 1.96-

WK.50% 63.03

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Range down week with bear close inside prev week. IWx3 with bof of hi. BAC 62.10 t 61.07

Previous Day – Neutral extreme down day with bear close weekly t2 hit at 61.07

Hourly Bias – Short Bias Sc -1

Big Picture – OIR and rot back to previous mid and bal till ECB and volatility taking out sz on the tops and bof week hi and bz to the downside until reject nvpoc/60.z a t

Hypo 1 – Down – if price bac 81 then short t 60; bac 60 then short t43-24

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds 61.60 then shorts t 39 t2 21 t3 00-81, if price holds 00-81 then longs t 21 t2 39 t2 61-60

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 60 then longs t 72 t2 94 t3 21-21

Red flag levels – For short trades 61.94 For long trades 60.60