22nd Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0800 French Man PMI 0830 Ger PMI 0900 EZ PMI
1100 UK CBI Ind Orders 1445 USD Man PMI

Stats

DATR 86+

WATR 2.02+

WK.50% –

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Range up week with strong bull close inside prev weekly bepin. Hi 66.16 lo 63.72 d.t 62.56-43 on bac of lo

Previous Day – Normal, range day with neutral bear close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 1

Big Picture – Bac of R 68-06, BIC, tested 60.sz (ftb) 37-55 and pullback to hourly support @ 86, for buyers to stay in control exp is for retest of 47-61 60.sz and bac, whilst holding 60 bz / support

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds / bof 95-86 then longs t 18 t2 37-47 t3 53-62 bac t 75 ext t 93-16

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 86 or 78-71 then longs t 18 t2 37-47; if price holds 37-47 then shorts t 18

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 72 then shorts t 60 t2 50 t3 40

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 65.62 For long trades bac 64.68

19th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger PPI 0930 UK Retail 1330 US CPI

Stats

DATR 88+

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Up with a weak bull close (bear pin) bac 63.72 for t 63.50 t2 62.56-43

Previous Day – Neutral extreme up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 2

Big Picture – Rej of 60.bz at 06-79 and breakout of bal hi at 68 and id x2 hi at 86, exp for BP bz and support to hold on pullbacks and sz to be tested and broken.

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 00-91 then longs t 13 t2 18-22; bac of 22 then longs t 40 t2 50-61

Hypo 2 – Deeper Pullback – if price holds / bof 18-22 then shorts t 00, if price bac 91 then shorts t 80-76; bac 76 then t 68-62; if price holds 80-76 or 68-62 then longs for resumption of BP long bias

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 62 then shorts t 55 t2 45 t3 39

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 65.22 For long trades bac 64.62

18th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0745 Fr CPI 0950 Sp Auc 1230 ECB Policy Minutes 1330 Philly Fed
1600 US Crude

Stats

DATR 88+

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Up with a weak bull close (bear pin) bac 63.72 for t 63.50 t2 62.56-43

Previous Day – Range day with Neutral bear close (ID x2) hi 64.86 lo 63.79

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 1

What happened –  OIR rot up to test 60.sz at 53-68 and rej with erc.v rot down to bof 06 and rot back to mid and choppy bal

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 53-68 or 75-86 (id.hi) then shorts t 26 t 2 15-06; if price holds / bof 02 or 91-79 (id.lo) then longs t 25 t2 53

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 86 then longs t 04 t2 11-22 60.bz (ftb) bac 22 t 43

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 79/72 then shorts t 48 t32-25

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.86 For long trades bac 63.72

My Review of Trading the Bund – 17th Feb 2016

My Review of Trading the Bund – 17th Feb 2016

Focus was pretty crap for a bit when price was chopping around and Eurostoxx was in a narrow range.

Read was good in Eurostoxx and Bund was a bit harder, on the push thru 42, my exp was for lower prices but on the strong rot up to test 53, that had me been on the side lines direction wise, but no bac of 53 to confirm, left me back to short bias but without taking the previous planned trade.

More knackered now than before I took 5 days off. Possible too much Strongbow and Champs.

17th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Earnings 1035 Ger Auc 1330 Us Build Permits 1415 US Ind prod

Stats

DATR 85-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Up with a weak bull close (bear pin) bac 63.72 for t 63.50 t2 62.56-43

Previous Day – Range day with Neutral bear close (ID x1) hi 64.86 lo 63.79

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 1

What happened –  OIR rot down to test 60.bz64.06-63.76 (ftb) and rej with rot up to test session high and bof with rot back to mid and hvn/vpoc at 62.26

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 53-68 or 75-86 (id.hi) then shorts t 26 t 2 15-06; if price holds / bof 06 or 91-79 (id.lo) then longs t 25 t2 53

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 86 then longs t 04 t2 11-22 60.bz (ftb) bac 22 t 43

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 79/72 then shorts t 48 t32-25

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.86 For long trades bac 63.72

11th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

TBA Eurogroup 1030 It Auc 1330 Us Initial Jobs 1500 Us Yellen

Stats

DATR 85-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Neutral range up week with bull close (idx2) hi 64.22 / lo 63.25

Previous Day – Range up day with strong bull close (id x1) h 65.23 l 64.10

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc -1

What happened –  OIR test of minor sz 70-81 re and rot down to test bz 25-10 and rej up with grinding rot yo yest sz 70-81(2tb)

Hypo 1 – Range -if price holds / bof 81-93 then shorts t 54-50 t2 36 t3 23-10; if price holds / bof 23-10 then longs t 36 t2 45-50

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 23 then longs t 44 t2 65-76

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 10 then shorts t 01 t2 85-72

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 65.23 For long trades bac 64.10

10th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK Man Prod 1035 Ger Auc 1500 Us Yellen 1530 US Crude

Stats

DATR 87+

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Neutral range up day with bull close (idx2) hi 64.22 / lo 63.25

Previous Day – Range down day with a neutral bear close

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 0

What happened –  OOR and bof of y.hi at 06 and erc.v rot down to bof bz at 43-36 and erc.v rot back to vah and retrun to mid for MC

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 80-93 or 06-23 then short t 7- t2 59-33 t3 43-36 t4 25-10; if price holds / bof 43=36 or 25-10 then longs t 70 t2 80

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 10 then shorts t 01 t2 85-72

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 23 then longs t 44 t2 65-76

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 65.23 For long trades bac 64.10

9th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Ind Prod 0930 UK Trade Bal 1500 US JOLTS

Stats

DATR 79-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Neutral range up day with bull close (idx2) hi 64.22 / lo 63.25

Previous Day – Trend Up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 1

What happened –  OIR rot down to test vpoc and rej with erc.v rot up thru fri.hi and into bal till Us session and erc.v rot up to 64.94 and pb with extension rot up after cash close on low volume

Hypo 1 – Up- if price holds 85-74 then longs t 00-06 bac 06 then longs t 39 t2 50-60 / datr

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bog 06 then shorts t 95 t 2 85 t3 80-73, bac 73 then shorts t 65-55 bac 55 then t2 43-34; if price holds 43-34 then longs t 60 t2 73

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bacs 34 then shorts t 22

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 65.05 For long trades bac 64.34

8th Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

China Hol 1400 EZ Auct

Stats

DATR 79-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 63.55

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Neutral range up day with bull close (idx2) hi 64.22 / lo 63.25

Previous Day – Normal down range day with weak beat close

Hourly Bias –Neutral bias sc -1

What happened –  OIR rot down to test support at 73 and rot up to test 60.sz 96-22 (1tb) rej and rot down to p.vah and into bal till nfp and then rot up to test 60.sz (2tb) and rej back down to 60.bz 46-24 and bof of minor pivot and rot back to 60.sz (3tb) for mc

Hypo 1 – Range – If price holds / bof 00-10 or 22 then shorts t 85 t 2 71 t3 60-49, if price holds /bog 46-24 then longs t 65-71

Hypo 2 – Down -if price bac 25 then shorts t 16 t2 06-88 (96) (60.bz)

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 10 then longs t 22 bac 22 longst 45 t2 45-65/datr

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 64.22 For long trades bac 63.25