1st Feb 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0815 Span Man PMI 0845/0900 Ez Man PMI 0930 UK PMI
1330 US Per Spending 1445/1500 US Man PMI 1600 EZ Draghi

Stats

DATR 81+

WATR 2.08+

WK.50% 62.32

M.50% 60.92

Weekly Summary – Up week (Marbuzzo bar) with strong bull close (62.30)

Previous Day – Trend up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 2

What happened –  OOR gap up, rot up with no gap close to break p.hi at 71 and cont to test DATR at 63.51 and into bal till mc

Hypo 1 – Up – If price holds / bof 29 06 16-06 then longs t 41-51, bac 51 then longs t 81 t2 98 t2 27 / Datr

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 51-64 then shorts t 36 t2 29 t3 16-06; if price holds 16-06 then longs t 29 t2 36

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 06 then shorts t 97 t 80-70

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 63.51 For long trades bac 63.06

Trading the Bund – Weekly Trading Review – 25-29 January 2016

What one thing did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Similar to last week, followed my stripped down trading rules, not that many opportunities, as I had other commitments so traded a couple of half days, and missed the afternoon trading opportunities. I did not force the trades due to the restricted time limits which was a good step.

What one thing did I do badly this week and what led me to do it?

Over managing the hypo opportunities, was not helped by choppy price action which occurred in my entry areas.

What specifically will I do next week to continue doing what I did best?

Since the beginning of the year I have been monitoring the Euro Stox, and will now add as a secondary market. Now if there is no opportunities in the Bund, I will take trades in the my secondary market.

What specifically will I do next week to improve what I did worst?

Over managing trades, I collecting data on how long it takes my hypo trades to react their original target whether I am still in the trade or not. I am going to use this data to review my holding period of my trades. As the current holding period is getting my out sometimes before the trade has fully had a chance to work. But I will not change the current time period until I have more data. As I not going to change this on just on a gut feeling. The gut feeling could be right but I need to collect data to see whether this is right or not.

How well did I achieve my “continue my best” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

I did not get much chance to keep the core position as my rules had me going out of the trade after a certain limit, which with the choppy price action meant I exited early. But I continued to monitor for a sign to get back, no fills and a missed opportunity did not help. But this is still a core goal for the next week.

How well did I achieve my “improve my worst” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

In theory, the adding of 1 or 2 ticks to my levels is working, except that the each time the best levels have been tested I have not been trading. But I can see that I would have been filled and the trades at my previous placements, would likely not have been.

Summary

Main goals this week –

To hold on to a core position for the hypo trades.

To continue to front run my levels by 2 ticks with the main bias and front run 1 tick to levels against the bias.

To trade the Eurostox on the main levels if there is not an opportunity in the Bund.

29th Jan 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0630 FR GDP 0700 Ger Retail Sales 07:45 Fr CPI
0800 Sp CPI 1000 EZ CPI 1330 US GDP

Stats

DATR 0.78-

WATR 2.04+

WK.50% 60.90

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Normal Up week with bull close with Weekly Bof of ath at 61.81

Previous Day – Normal Up day with bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 1

What happened –  OIR rot down to test lvn at 93-83 and rej back into va and bal, then break up and bac of y.hi and into mini bal till US news and then erc.v rot up at 70 and rej back to test 60.bz 03-88 and rej back to upper va and into bal till mc

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 37-25 then longs t 57-71 bac 71 then longs t 91-00 t2 25-40 t3 datr

Hypo 2 – Range -if price holds / bof 57-71 then shorts t 37 if price holds 14-00 then longs t 37

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 00 then shorts t 91-88 t2 75-55

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.71 For long trades bac 61.91

28th Jan 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0930 UK GBP 1025 It Auc 1300 Ger CPI
1330 Us Durable Goods 1500 US Pending Homes

Stats

DATR 0.78-

WATR 2.04+

WK.50% 60.90

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Normal Up week with bull close with Weekly Bof of ath at 61.81

Previous Day – Neutral up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 2

What happened –  OIR rot up to bac y.hi and then stall , with a mini bof at 16 and erc.v rot down to test 60.bz 60-50 and rej back to mid for fomc, on news erc rot up to make session hi at 62.25

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds17-09 then longs t 26 t2 32 t3 52 t4 datr

Hypo 2 – Range -if price bac 09 then shorts t 00, if price bac 00 then shorts t 88 t2 75-68 (60.bz); if price holds 88 or 75-88 then longs t 00 t 2 10

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 85 then shorts t 60-50, bac 50 then shorts t 50 t2 31 t2 22-13

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.26 For long trades bac 61.50

My Review of Trading the Bund – 27th Jan 2016

My Review of Trading the Bund – 27th Jan 2016

Focus good, but hard to read market this morning with choppy price action, better this afternoon with push down.

I have been monitoring my second market which had a few good setups today, so when I start trading the second market , it will be a good idea to concentrate on the market that is giving me the best setups and reacting well to my system.

On the push down, it was a shame there was not decent pullback till it hit the 60.bz limiting my options for shorts.

27th Jan 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0700 Ger Cons Clim 0930 Uk BBA Mort 1035 Ger Auc
1500 US New Home sales 1530 US Crude Oil

Stats

DATR 0.80-

WATR 2.04+

WK.50% 60.90

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Normal Up week with bull close with Weekly Bof of ath at 61.81

Previous Day – up day with Neutral bull close

Hourly Bias – Long Bias Sc 1

What happened –  OOR gap up and rot up to bof at 94 and rot back to fill gap, and rej with grinding rot up to test 94 for MC

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds / bof 76 then longs t 94-03, bac 03 then longs t 16 t2 32 t3 DATR

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds 94-03 then shorts t 79 bac 79 t 67 t2 60-50; if price holds/bof 60-55 then longs t 79

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 50 then shorts t 40 t2 31 t2 22-13

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 62.04 For long trades bac 61.13

26th Jan 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

1045 UK Carney 1445 US HPI Comp 1500 US CB Cons

Stats

DATR 0.88+

WATR 2.04+

WK.50% 60.90

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Normal Up week with bull close with Weekly Bof of ath at 61.81

Previous Day – Up range day with Bull close (ID) Hi 61.64+94 / Lo 60.81

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 0

What happened –  OIR rot up to test 60.sz 44-61 and rj back to p.mid and into bal

Hypo 1 – Up – if price bac 55 then longs t 66-72 t2 81-94; if bof of 94 then shorts t 50: if bac of 94 then longs t 18 t2 34/datr

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds/bof 50 then shorts t 40 t2 13-02, if price holds 02-81 then longs t 40

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 81 then shorts t 74 t2 51 t3 38-23

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 61.94 For long trades bac 60.81

25th Jan 2016 – Bund Daily Trade Plan

News

0900 Ger IFO Biz Clim 1100 UK CBI Ind Tr

Stats

DATR 0.88+

WATR 2.04+

WK.50% 60.90

M.50%

Weekly Summary – Normal Up week with bull close with Weekly Bof of ath at 61.81

Previous Day – Down range day with neutral bear close (ID) Hi 61.94 / Lo 60.81

Hourly Bias – Neutral Bias Sc 0

What happened –  OIR rot up but unable to test or fill gap at 15.sz 66-71 and erc.v rot down thru messy 60.bz (2tb) and rej and into bal

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 10-02 or 81-74 then longs t 20 t2 36, if price holds 44-61 then shorts t 20-25

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 764 then shorts t 51 t2 38; if price holds 38 then longs t 74, if bac 38 then shorts t 23-17 (gap)

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 61 then longs t 81-94, if price holds / bof 81-94 then shorts t 45, bac 94 then longs t DATR

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 61.94 For long trades bac 60.81