Trading the Bund 7-11th December 2015

What one thing did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Not much that I did well this week, but my plans and hypo’s were good. Doing my homework the night before and updating the plans during the day works well for me.

What one thing did I do badly this week and what led me to do it?

I am not trading the main context / hypo well, I have developed a habit of treating all the trades the same. I am treating everything on a very short term basis where price is going in the next 5 -10 mins. In the heat of moment I am having trouble differentiating between the scalp trades and the hypo trades.

A couple of things that are leading me to this.

1) The process of reading the order flow for entries on the Dom and Bookmap, is leading my focus to be on the shorter time moves. Rather than my main context charts and plan.

2) That my conservative nature regarding risk, is meaning that with such small stops, that I am concerned that the trade will get stopped out whilst my hypo and context remain intact.

What specifically will I do next week to continue doing what I did best?

Continue with the current routine of doing my homework and updating the plan as more information comes in during the session.

What specifically will I do next week to improve what I did worst?

I traded badly on Monday, and traded okay for the rest of the week. A lot of the week was pretty low volume and difficult to read from a price action and order flow perspective.

Current objectives regarding hypo trades are as follows:

1) That all orders that are part of my hypo will be placed on Stage 5 Dom rather than using Bookmap / Jigsaw. This will help to distinguish in my mind that these I should be treating these orders with different objectives.

2) That on these orders will increase my risk, by either placing my orders where I am wrong or when appropriate increasing size by 1 lot. Not both.

My scalp trades will remain the same.

I will implement these objectives if the trading conditions improve over last week’s. There is a good chance that it may not due to being so close to FOMC and then the Christmas Holidays.

If the conditions stay the same then I will put these objectives on hold till the new year.

How well did I achieve my “continue my best” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

I will continue with my homework and intraday plans as before. Not to become complacent with this as the market becomes quieter.

How well did I achieve my “improve my worst” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

Poorly, partly due to trading badly on Monday and then poor trading conditions for the second part of last week. See above.

11th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0700 Ger CPI

1330 US retail Sales

1500 US Mich Cons Exp

Stats

DATR 0.95+

WATR 2.11+

WK.50% 58.39

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – ERC.V down week, with low at weekly comp hvn, with bear close

Previous Day –  Normal up day with neutral bull close

Hourly Bias – Neutral SC 0

What happened – OIR rot down to test y.val and into bal, break up and test and bof of p.hi at 58.94 and back into va, and close at val

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 48-36 then longs t 67 t2 74 t3 84-97; if price holds/bof 97 then shorts t 74 t2 67

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 36 t 25-13 bac 13 t 07 t2 00 tg3 93-71

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 97 then longs t 04 t2 22 t4 33-44

Red flag levels – For short trades 58.97 For long trades 58.13

10th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0745 Fr CPI

1010 It Auc

1200 UK IR 1330 US Initial Jobs

Stats

DATR 0.95+

WATR 2.11+

WK.50% 58.39

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – ERC.V down week, with low at weekly comp hvn, with bear close

Previous Day –  Neutral up day with weak bear close

Hourly Bias – Neutral SC 3

What happened – OIR rot down to test y.val and rej rot up to test p.vah and rej back into va, and into bal then in us session erc.v rot down to bof y.lo and erc rot back tot vpoc

Hypo 1 – Up – if price bac 94 then longs t 03 t2 11 t2 22 t4 33-44

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds/bof 72-83 or 94 then shorts t 65 t2 48-38 bac 38 t 25-13 ; if price holds / bof 25-13 then longs t 38-48

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 13 then shorts t 07 t2 00 t3 93-71

Red flag levels – For short trades 58.94 For long trades 58.13

9th Dec – Bund Market Review

9th Dec – Bund Market Review

Traded better today. Had a good read apart from the break down. Had a feeling that it would not work due to the strength of the move. Read the market well at the bof of 23-16, and short at 34 for a scalp. I would have held for a test of 58.23 but not at this time of day.

9th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0700 Ger TB

0945 Sp Auc

1045 Ger Auc

Stats

DATR 0.95+

WATR 2.11+

WK.50% 58.39

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – ERC.V down week, with low at weekly comp hvn, with bear close

Previous Day –  Neutral up day with bull close

Hourly Bias – Long SC 3

What happened – OIR rot up but unable to break y.hi and rej back to bz @ 33-16 and rej back thru y.hi to test prev low at 58.94 and pullback to y.hi at 68

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 65-59 then longs t 80 t2 91-94 bac 94 t 03 t2 11 t3 21 t4 33-38

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 76 or 94-03 then shorts t 76 t 65 bac 62 shorts t 53 t2 33-23; if price holds 33-23 then longs t 53-62

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 23 then shorts t15 t2 00 t3 93-71

Red flag levels – For short trades 58.94 For long trades 58.16 

8th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0915 EZ Fin Meet

0930 UK Man Prod

1000 EZ GDP

1500 US JOLTS

Stats

DATR 0.92+

WATR 2.11+

WK.50% 58.39

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – ERC.V down week, with low at weekly comp hvn, with bear close

Previous Day –  trend up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long SC 0

What happened – OIR erc.v rot up thru fri hi with shallow pbs and test of p.day low at 65 and into bal for mc

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 33-16 then longs t 60-67 bac 67 then longs t 95-05 bac 05 t20 t 58-64

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds/bof 60-67 then shorts t 33-16 bac t 07 t2 92-77; if price holds / bof 92-77 then longs t 07 t2 33

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 77 then shorts t 53-39

Red flag levels – For short trades 58.68 For long trades 57.77

7th Dec – Bund Market Review

7th Dec – Bund Market Review

Very disappointed with myself today.

The morning was ok, good focus and good read, but the afternoon went slowly went down here.

Lost patience and entered early and got stopped out, made an error trade, accidently clicked the mouse and price moved immediately against me, instead of getting straight out I tried to minimise the loss and had to take a bigger loss. It was less than normal but it was against my rules.

I also was too aggressive looking for scalps, getting in early. Basically overtrading and looking back in the later afternoon I had a mentality of fuck it mixed with a fear of missing out. Definitely the wrong combination.