I will be using this Christmas break to do a general review of my trading and practises that support the trading.
I will use this review to set up goals for the 1st quarter of 2016.
I will be focusing on the following areas:
1) To review my trade journal of the past 200 trades to see if there are any obvious problems with my trades.
2) to read and review my Best Practises Manual, one to remind me of what works best and secondary to see if there any obvious areas that I am not following or could be improved.
3) To review the way I handle my hypo trades. Currently I treat the majority of the trades the same way. I need to be able to split my trades into hypo (intraday swing trades) and the shorter term scalps. These should have different targets and stops. I will be using my trade journal alongside harmonic rotations to help me come up with some rules regarding these.
4) One problem has been error trades, I have done work to reduce these, but occasionally I still have a run with taking error trades. These tend to occur after periods of frustrating trading. I will be looking deeper into these periods to see if I can come with ways to reduce this error even further.
5) I will look at adding a secondary market, on slightly higher timeframe. I am thinking that this could help in the frustrating periods in Bund where there is no high probability setups.
6) I will look at my daily routine especially my start time regarding the open, whilst I am generally full ready to trade 5 mins before the open, I rarely take a trade at the open. There are not always opportunities at the open but when there are it is not often that I take them. I need to look at the reasons behind this and take a look at what trades I want to take at the open.
7) To look back at what I have done to improve my no fill problem, where I am with that and what are the next steps.
Another good article on the macro behind the Federal Reserve rate hike. Definitely worth reading.
So the Fed decision, statement, and commentary were largely as Macro Man expected, given the “shadow statement” presented here a couple of days ago. Sure, there were some differences- they used “gradual” instead of “cautious”, and the bit about monitoring financial markets closely and being prepared to act was […]
The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hike. The dot plot reflects expectations for four rate hikes in 2016. There were no dissents. This is important. It underscores the decisiveness of the decision. There have been three voting Fed members that were thought to be likely dissents. The Fed will […]
Weekly Summary – Inside up week with strong bull close (O/B 160.25/156.53)
Previous Day – ER down day with bear close
Hourly Bias – Short sc -2
What happened – OIR rot up to test range/bal high at 88 bof and rot back to bof p.low and into bal till FOMC then rot down to test m.50% and rej to test 65 prev support and reject back to origin of fomc price
Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds 00 then longs t1 25-36 bac 36 t2 56-65; if price holds 56-65 then shorts t 40
Hypo 2 – Down – if prices hold 25-36 then shorts t 00 t2 78 bac 78 t 68-52 bac 52 t 37-25
Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 65 then longs t 84-95
Red flag levels – For short trades 57.65 For long trades 56.80
Given that this is quite possibly the most anticipated rate hike in human history, there is little that Macro Man wishes to add to the veritable Everest of previews, thought pieces, moans, and cheers that have inundated anyone with even a cursory interest in economics or markets over the past days, weeks, and months.
Instead, he will leave you with some data to put the current situation, and perhaps the future, into context.
Good focus, quite hard to read, but happy with the trades. The retest of 96 from above, the clue with that trade was it had not managed to fill the full market gap and had the volume and strength in the bar that tested this area was an indication of strength to the downside.