Christmas is not just for Mince Pies, my review plan over the holidays.

I will be using this Christmas break to do a general review of my trading and practises that support the trading.

I will use this review to set up goals for the 1st quarter of 2016.

I will be focusing on the following areas:

1) To review my trade journal of the past 200 trades to see if there are any obvious problems with my trades.

2) to read and review my Best Practises Manual, one to remind me of what works best and secondary to see if there any obvious areas that I am not following or could be improved.

3) To review the way I handle my hypo trades. Currently I treat the majority of the trades the same way. I need to be able to split my trades into hypo (intraday swing trades) and the shorter term scalps. These should have different targets and stops. I will be using my trade journal alongside harmonic rotations to help me come up with some rules regarding these.

4) One problem has been error trades, I have done work to reduce these, but occasionally I still have a run with taking error trades. These tend to occur after periods of frustrating trading. I will be looking deeper into these periods to see if I can come with ways to reduce this error even further.

5) I will look at adding a secondary market, on slightly higher timeframe. I am thinking that this could help in the frustrating periods in Bund where there is no high probability setups.

6) I will look at my daily routine especially my start time regarding the open, whilst I am generally full ready to trade 5 mins before the open, I rarely take a trade at the open. There are not always opportunities at the open but when there are it is not often that I take them. I need to look at the reasons behind this and take a look at what trades I want to take at the open.

7) To look back at what I have done to improve my no fill problem, where I am with that and what are the next steps.

18th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

1445 US Ser PMI

Stats

DATR 0.97+

WATR 2.13+

WK.50% 58.25

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – Inside up week with strong bull close (O/B 160.25/156.53)

Previous Day –  Trend up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Neutral sc +2

What happened – OIR gap up, unable to fill gap (+) and erc.v rot up thru y.hi (+) to test prev. supp at 49 and rejection (-) back to y.hi and rej back to session his (+)

Hypo 1 – Up – if price bac 49 then longs t 60-71 bac 71 t 86 bac 86 t 00 t12-21

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 50 then shorts t 30 t2 19; if price holds / bof 19 then longs t 19 t2 44-50

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 19 then shorts t 03 t2 95-84 bac 84 t 71-65 t2 52 t3 26-11

Red flag levels – For short trades 58.50 For long trades 57.95

Federal Reserve Rate Hike-What now?

Federal Reserve Rate Hike-What now?

Another good article on the macro behind the Federal Reserve rate hike. Definitely worth reading.

So the Fed decision, statement, and commentary were largely as Macro Man expected, given the “shadow statement” presented here a couple of days ago. Sure, there were some differences- they used “gradual” instead of “cautious”, and the bit about monitoring financial markets closely and being prepared to act was […]

Federal Reserve Rate Hike

 

Federal Reserve Rate Hike – We have Lift-Off

Federal Reserve Rate Hike – We have Lift-Off

The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hike. The dot plot reflects expectations for four rate hikes in 2016. There were no dissents. This is important. It underscores the decisiveness of the decision. There have been three voting Fed members that were thought to be likely dissents. The Fed will […]

Another great article by Marc Chandler explaining the details behind the first Federal Reserve rate hike for many years. Well worth a read.

17th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0900 Ger IFO

0930 UK Retail Sales

1000 EZ Wages EZ

1100 UK Ind Tr

1330 US Philly Fed

Stats

DATR 0.95+

WATR 2.13+

WK.50% 58.25

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – Inside up week with strong bull close (O/B 160.25/156.53)

Previous Day –  ER down day with bear close

Hourly Bias – Short sc -2

What happened – OIR rot up to test range/bal high at 88 bof and rot back to bof p.low and into bal till FOMC then rot down to test m.50% and rej to test 65 prev support and reject back to origin of fomc price

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds 00 then longs t1 25-36 bac 36 t2 56-65; if price holds 56-65 then shorts t 40

Hypo 2 – Down – if prices hold 25-36 then shorts t 00 t2 78 bac 78 t 68-52 bac 52 t 37-25

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 65 then longs t 84-95

Red flag levels – For short trades 57.65 For long trades 56.80

The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

6M POST

Given that this is quite possibly the most anticipated rate hike in human history, there is little that Macro Man wishes to add to the veritable Everest of previews, thought pieces, moans, and cheers that have inundated anyone with even a cursory interest in economics or markets over the past days, weeks, and months.

Instead, he will leave you with some data to put the current situation, and perhaps the future, into context.

Curated from The first hike in the history of this commentary ~ Macro Man

I find that Macro Mans’ commentary always helpful in how the macro relates to the actual markets

16th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0800 FR PMI

0830 GER PMI

0900 EZ PMI 0930 UK Earn 1000 EZ CPI

1330 US BP

1415 US Ind Prod

1900 US FOMC

Stats

DATR 0.93+

WATR 2.13+

WK.50% 58.25

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – Inside up week with strong bull close (O/B 160.25/156/53)

Previous Day –  Trend down day with a bear close

Hourly Bias – Short sc -2

What happened – OIR rot up to test and rej 66 and erc.v rot down thru bz and levels to hvn / com VAL / yr vpoc @ 37

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds /bof 44-33 then longs t 53 t2 68; if price holds/bof 78-88 then shorts t 68 t2 53

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 34 then shorts t 21 r2 10-95 bac 95 t80 t2 67-53

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 88 then longs t03 t2 13 t3 26

Red flag levels – For short trades 57.88 For long trades 56.95

14th Dec – Bund Market Review

14th Dec – Bund Market Review

Good focus, quite hard to read, but happy with the trades. The retest of 96 from above, the clue with that trade was it had not managed to fill the full market gap and had the volume and strength in the bar that tested this area was an indication of strength to the downside.

14th Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0900 IT CPI

1000 EZ Nowotny

1000 EZ Ind Prod 1100 EZ Draghi

1500 EZ Costa

Stats

DATR 0.89-

WATR 2.13+

WK.50% 58.25

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – Inside up week with strong bull close (O/B 160.25/156/53)

Previous Day –  Trend up day with strong bull close

Hourly Bias – Long sc 2

What happened – OIR rot up thru y,hi with shallow pullbacks on less than average volume to test prev support and hvn at 59.32

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 17-07 then longs t 30-37 bac 37 t 47 t64 (hvn) t2 75-86 (prev sup and HVN)

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 33 (47) then shorts t 17-07 bac 07 t 00-96 t2 88-74 (bz); if price holds 96 or 88-74 then longs t 00 t2 17

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 74 then shorts t66 t2 56-45

Red flag levels – For short trades 59.37 For long trades 58.74