Bund Market Review – 24th Nov

Bund Market Review – 24th Nov

I had good focus, and had a good read of the market but was not aggressive enough. Still have not got the balance between when to be aggressive and when not to be.

And whilst it was correct to be patience at the retest of the balance area, and got in the second mouse setup, I bailed far too early on when some big buy orders went through. Next trade half size as punishment.

24th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0700 Ger GDP

0830 EZ Costa

0900 Ger IFO

1330 US GDP

1400 US HPI

1500 US CB COns

1500 US Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.70-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 57.49

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Up normal range week with strong bull close, weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Nor down day with weak bear close (reaction off sz)

Bias – Neutral SC 3.2

What happened – OIR rot and rej of p.val and erc.v rot down thru bz’s to comp lvn and into bal and then low volume rot back to prev. low at 64

Hypo 1 – Range -if price holds / bof 68-78 then shorts t 49 t 35, if price holds 49-35 then longs t 64

Hypo 2 – Down – if price bac 35 then shorts t 20-15 bac 15 then shorts t 06(lvn) t2 96(hvn) t3 84-78

Hypo 3 – Up – If price bac 78 then longs t 93-03 bac 03 then t2 13-24

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 57.79 For long trades  57.46 then 35

23rd Nov – Bund Market Review

23rd Nov – Bund Market Review

Good focus today, even with headache. Maybe a bit too patience on the main trade to get short after the bac of 64. Otherwise a step in the right direction after last week.

Also internet pretty stable, went down for 2 x 1min, but each time re-established connection. Noticed each time was when over 900 contracts went thru on the dom.

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23rd Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0800 FR PMI

0830 GER PMI

0900 EZ PMI

1400 Fr Auct

1400 EZ Meet

1445 US PMI

1500 US Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.70-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 57.49

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Up normal range week with strong bull close, weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Neutral up day with neutral bull close @ past daily rot zone + ftb daily sz (exp reaction)

Bias – Long SC 3.4

What happened – OIR rot up to bof .phi and rot back to test bz and rej back to session hi and bof back into value.

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 14-24/30 (vah/sz/nvpoc) then shorts t 03 t2 96 t3 85-78, if price holds 85-78 then longs t 96 t 03 t 14-24; bac of 78 shorts t 70-64, if price holds 70-64 then longs t 78 t 92 t 96

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 24 then longs 30-39 (vpoc/sz) bac 49 t 53-60 (sz/vah/w.hi)

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 64 then shorts t 53-49 t2 42-32 (bz/nvpoc) bac 32 t 25-18 (val/bz)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 24-30 For long trades  57.64

Repeating the Best Practise

Repeating the Best Practise

Recently I have been doing some part time consultancy work in my old career. I do this as it fits in around my trading, apart from the odd half day couple of times a month. I enjoy the work and makes me think about my trading from a different perspective.

Recently, we had a performance review of the last race of the current campaign, and it highlighted an area which I think has a cross over with trading.

Whilst the review dealt with the areas they performed well in and areas they needed to improve in, and from that a list of actions was produced to be implemented in the future.

Pretty normal review so far, but what came to my attention was that in a few of the areas they needed to improve upon, they had done better in these areas in past campaigns.

We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.

Aristotle

So why were they not repeating the good procedures now?

It seemed on further discussion that slowly over time with various team changes and with just the passing of time, that routines that had been habit, had slowly changed or been forgotten without anyone really noticing.

In previous campaigns I had been involved with, I had run an operations manual which listed all the best practises for all the areas under my management. This ensured that everyone followed the correct routine and we did not stray from the path of repeating the methods that resulting in good performance.

How does this relate to my trading?

Well my trading system covering my style, entry, management, risk etc., is well documented and kept regularly up to date.

After this trading weekly review, which highlighted problems due to a lack of focus, I remembered that a couple of years ago, when I moved from trading hourly and daily charts to an intraday style of trading, I had a problem with maintaining and keeping focus, so I had a procedure to get me back into the zone.

Over time as my ability to focus improved, these routines got forgotten as I did not have to rely on these to get into the zone.

Now when they are needed again, I did not need help as I already had a forgotten tool I could use. It was only when writing the review of the week’s trading that I it occurred to me that I had a problem like this in the past and looked up the solution.

In turn this has led me to me thinking about the other areas of my trading, whilst all these areas are done pretty consistently the same way each time they are not documented.

So the question is, whilst I think that these areas are repeated consistently, are they and what other good practises I have lost to time and habit creep?

Have these changes been an improvement or have they been detrimental to my trading?

Without these areas being documented, then I do not know the answer.

For example, I update some of my stats weekly and some monthly, using the same criteria each time.

But now looking back at the stats from a year ago, I collected and updated them on a slightly different time scale and criteria. Why am I doing this differently and was it an improvement? I do not know the answer to these questions.

How many times I have made an error, which I have placed a routine in place, then over time drifted from this routine and then ended up in a similar spot and ended up re-inventing the wheel.

These changes to my routines are in theory, covered by my weekly review in my hand written, and now on line journals, but these improvements are not collected in one place unless it directly relates to my trading system.

Currently it is time consuming to go through these individual reviews to check if I am still implementing the good practises into my trading.

So moving forward I will keep a Best Practises Manual, which I will document my best practises and then using my weekly review to feed into and improve this Manual.

Trading the Bund – Weekly Review 16-20th Nov

What one thing did I do best this week and how did I do it?

Not much that great about this week. My hypos and homework still remain good and implemented prioritising the hypos better this week.

What one thing did I do badly this week and what led me to do it?

Focus and patience was a failure on three days of the five. Had problem with my internet connection, which in turn lead me to breaking my pre morning routine and making it hard to focus on trading as I was multi-tasking.

The result was poor analysis of the day trends, jumping into trades without proper focus on the trigger and DOM, and poor management whilst in the trades.

What specifically will I do next week to continue doing what I did best?

Continue with doing the homework every evening, ensuring that I prioritise hypos and write up the factors behind the major levels.

What specifically will I do next week to improve what I did worst?

If I have problems pre market then rather than rush to trade, I must complete my pre market routine.

Secondary, if I have distractions that take my focus off the market then I must do a 20min focus session to get back into the zone.

How well did I achieve my “continue my best” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

My goal was to continue using the 15min as my main context, which was not a success but to lack of focus, which I have detailed above. When I was focused this worked well. So to continue this I need to develop a best practice for when these situations occur.

How well did I achieve my “improve my worst” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

My goal here was to work on the no fill problem. I did not have a major problem this week with no fills, but I have noticed before, that getting a fill on a shit trade is pretty easy, getting a fill on a good area that is a potential turning point is another thing.

Bookmap is helping, but it still a learning curve with the settings, have the time slice too wide and it ends up providing the same information as the trigger chart, too narrow then it provides not enough information.

And I have discovered that the size of volume in the circles should be adjusted dependant on the time slice. Thanks to James at TradeRunner for taking me though the theory behind this, in the Stage 5 chat room.

20th Nov – Bund Market Review

20th Nov – Bund Market Review

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Internet up and running stable. Able to focus and had a better day.

Exp was for price to try higher as per the last couple of day and fail. Which is did and then rot back for 30-40 ticks, to a bz and then buyer steps in and rot back to test and fail/bal around session hi. Which is has done for the past couple of days a swell.

Rot down to bz, did not sell the pullback, as learnt my lesson yesterday, and on break of the flip zone was looking for longs at retest 93, stalled and entered on impulse, no trigger. Which broke my rules so pulled the order. And waited for a trigger, no trigger.

Then looking for a bof at session hi for a scalp, no fill on first trigger and then run out of time.

20th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0700 Ger PPI

0800 EZ Draghi

1015 Ger Buba

1615 US Dudley

Stats

DATR 0.71-

WATR 2.08+-

WK.50% 55.95

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Bepin , followed by down with strong close and then up with a strong close above 50% of p.week and within range of down week open at 57.43

Previous Day –  Neutral up day with bull close @ daily rot zone +

Bias – Long SC 3.4

What happened – OIR rot up to sz at 09-24 and rej back to p.vpoc and rej back to minor bof the session hi

Hypo 1 – Up -if price holds/bof 91 then longs t 10-14, bac 14 t 24 bac 24 t 30-40 t2 48-60

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds /bof 06-24 then shorts t 97 t2 86 t3 78-64; if price holds 78-64 then longs t 92-92 t2 10

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 64 then shorts t 523 t2 42-34 bac 34 t 25-19

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 24 For long trades  57.64

19th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0800 EZ Buba

0930 UK Retail Sales

1100 UK CBI

1230 EZ ECB Policy

1330 US Philly Fed

1500 US Philly Fed

Stats

DATR 0.75-

WATR 2.08+-

WK.50% 55.95

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Bepin , followed by down with strong close and then up with a strong close above 50% of p.week and within range of down week open at 57.43

Previous Day –  Neutral up day with bull close @ daily rot zone

Bias – Long SC 3.4

What happened – OIR rot down to test p.hi and rej up to nvpoc at 84 and then rej back to y.vpoc at 32 and rej back to highs and then minor bof at highs on fomc

Hypo 1 – Up – if price holds 73-64 then longs t 80-85 bac 85 longs t 92 t2 58.14-22 bac 22 longs t 30-39 bac 39 t 52-60

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds 85-92 then shorts t 75-65 bac t 53 t2 42-32; if price nolds bof 42-34 then longs t 67

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 34 then shorts t26-18 bac shorts t 04 t2 97-78

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 85 and then 22 For long trades  57.34