1st Dec – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0815 EZ Spain Manu

0855 Ger Man/Umem

0900 UK Carney

0900 EZ Man PMI

0930 UK ISM PMI

1000 EZ Unemploy

1445 US Man PMI

1500 US ISM Man PMI

Stats

DATR 0.67-

WATR 1.90-

WK.50% 57.96

M.50% 56.80

Weekly Summary – Normal range with strong bull close, but close under weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Narrow range down day with neutral bear close, sfp of hi @58.60

Bias – Long SC 3.4

What happened – OIR rot down to bz at 25-15, and rej into bal till mc

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds/bof 36-46 then shorts t 20-15 bac 15 t 00 bac 00 t 90-83 (step/hvn) t2 75-67 (support/wval)

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 15-10 then longs t 30, if price holds 46-53 then shorts t 30

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 46 t 60 t2 72-81

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 58.46 For long trades  58.15

30th November – Bund Market Review

30th November – Bund Market Review

Good focus today and good read.

Did not get filled on main hypo trade, I could have been in the market slightly earlier but looking at the time and sale I do not think I would have been filled anyway.

I missed one trade due to not being at desk, was making tea but I think this was due to me avoiding the trade as I was not confident of my analysis at that area and I did not want to give profits back.

30th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0700 Ger Retail Sales

1000 It CPI

1300 Ger CPI

1445 US Chig PMI

1500 US Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.69+

WATR 1.90-

WK.50% 57.96

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Normal range with strong bull close, but with close under weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Normal up day with weak bull close, sfp of hi @58.60

Bias – Long SC 3.6

What happened – OIR gap up, rot down to fill gap and rej thru y.hi with above average volume rots to test sz at 78-86 and rej back to val

Hypo 1 – Down – if price holds 59-68 then shorts t 40-35 t2 26-15 (vpoc/lvn) bac 15 shorts t 04-90 (stp/hi/hvn)

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds /bof 26-15 then longs t 49 t2 59-68, if price holds / bof 68-78 then shorts t 58 t2 40

Hypo 3 – Up – if price bac 78 then longs t 85 (nvpoc/sz) bac 85 t 99 t2 09-20 (sz)

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 58.85 For long trades  58.15

Improving the use of statistics in my day trading plan

Improving the use of statistics in my day trading plan

A while ago I wrote an article on how I use statistics in my trading. Over time the list of stats I use has grown into a list of 32 items, whilst some can be grouped together, this still was a list of 24 stats to keep an eye and incorporate into my trading.

As I had noticed in a previously in Repeating the Best Practice, the way I calculated my stats has changed over time. I also had noticed that the list of stats had got more complex and I was having trouble including these into my trading plan.

Or to be more precise, I was focusing only on a few stats and not using the others as it was too time consuming and complex.

As part of my Best Practises Manual, I decided to simplify the whole process.

Step 1 – Schedule and Settings

I have written a schedule of when I update these stats and what settings I am using each time. This will introduce some consistency in when and way I calculate the stats.

Step 2 – Make it easy to do

Some of my stats where calculated in Excel and some using the RT Investor Charting Software.

My next step was to convert all my stats in excel to RT Investor. I did this on Thanksgiving whilst the market was quiet, and it took me a good 5 hours but in the future it will save me time and will make it easy to update my list.

Some of the stats charts I downloaded from RT Investor Homework section, I then re purposed these to give me the stats I wanted and some of them I wrote from scratch. I am no expert with the RT Investor RTL, but by examining the downloaded charts I managed to learn enough to write by own stats charts.

My point is that if you are familiar with doing stats on excel, then a bit of time spent looking at Chad charts should give enough information to make your own charts in RT Investor / Market Delta.



I then rename all my charts and remaining excel documents that are stat based with the prefix STATS, thus making these charts and documents easy to find.

Step 3 – Incorporating my stats into my day trading plan

Previously, I would look at the chart, see where price opened or where price is trading and then check my stats document and then write out the relevant stat into my day journal and then incorporate into my intraday plan.

As my list of stats increased, this document expanded and ended up at 3 pages long. The result was I would occasionally miss a relevant stat or on some days, where I would have a few stats in play and I would have trouble incorporating all this information into an intraday plan that dove tailed into my overall daily hypo.

My observation is that if a practice is too complex then the tendency is that either it does not get implemented or not implemented correctly every time. Something has to change if I am to bring consistency to all of my best practises.

Instead of a 3 page document listing all my stats, I reduced this to an one page cheat sheet with only the relevant information in shorthand and divided into sections split between open, high, lows, etc.

I went further and numbered the most important intraday stats, so that I can refer to them by number in my day journal and I will now note whether the stat is positive or negative for the bias.

An example of how I enter this into my day journal.

From this I have found it easier to work these stats into my areas of interest and overall plan.

This has been all updated into my Best Practises Manual, and will be the routine going forward.

My List of Great Articles

My List of Great Articles

This is a list of articles that deserved to be bookmarked and re read regularly. The information in this is timeless and has crossovers into trading and everything we do in life.

The Best Way to Implement Simplicity

The first is a excellent article on the right way to make our trading as simple as possible but not any simpler.

2015-11-28_1308

Read the full article. Keep it simple in trading

The Most Important Question of Your Life

“A more interesting question, a question that perhaps you’ve never considered before, is what pain do you want in your life? What are you willing to struggle for? Because that seems to be a greater determinant of how our lives turn out.”

For me, this is an essential read every month.

Read the full article. The Question

Trading the Bund – Weekly Review 23-27 November

Trading the Bund – Weekly Review 23-27 November

What one thing did I do best this week and how I did I do it?

Re organising my Best Practices in to one place, especially my statistics was extremely helpful and productive.

This same step has allowed me to focus on my trading and if I needed a tool then it was there.

The changes I made to the way I do my statistics has allowed me to incorporate the stats into my trading in a simple and less time consuming way.

What one thing did I do badly this week and what led me to do it?

Fiddling with my settings on Bookmap. Whilst I am still on the learning curve with this piece of software and fine tuning my settings. A constant adjusting of the settings is not allowing me to settle in with just using the software.

What specifically will I do next week to continue doing what I did best?

To continue to use the current method of implementing my stats to adjust areas of interest and my intraday trading plan.

What specifically will I do next week to improve what I did worst?

To implement a new best practice, that any new tool that I incorporate into my trading, that I have to live with the setting for a minimum of 1 day for the first week and then after than I have to live with the settings for a minimum of 1 week before changing anything. That will give me time to settle in and actually access the changes properly.

How well did I achieve my “continue my best” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

Playing more attention to prioritising hypos is going well. I sometimes forget to write up the reasons why a major level is a major level. So need to work on this so it becomes habit.

How well did I achieve my “improve my worst” goal last week and what do I need to do this week to continue/improve upon that progress?

My no fill problems seems to be improving, the Bookmap software trial has finished and I have made the decision to purchase it. My no fill problem is here and the update is here.

The reason I am only saying that my no fill problem seems to be improving, is the small sample size so far. The first week I had internet problems so did not spend as much time looking for trades as I normally do. The second week had Thanksgiving in it, so again not as many trades as a normal week.

So why I have made the decision to purchase this software.

Using Bookmap, it has allowed me to visualise the order flow which in turn has kept me out of 2 trades which would have been losers, and has got me into a 3 trades at the right time. The other trades it did not make much difference to in my entry. The profit from those trades has paid for the software.

bookmap_setup

As I have mentioned before, my criteria for using paid tools / resources is simple and has to parts.

Is it going to pay for itself?

And will it generate more profits than not using it?

The first criteria has been met and the second is looking positive. Therefore I will continue with Bookmap and write up a further update on my no fill problem at a later date.

Of course I still have no fills, sometimes the market just takes off and I do not get a chance to enter or I just got a no fill. The end result is not going to be that I get filled on every trade. I think that is possibly a un realistic goal.

Also sometimes I have hesitated in my decision making too long, and that problem lies with the tool that is pressing the mouse and not with the software tool itself.

Bund Market Review – 27th November

Bund Market Review – 27th November

Okay day, focus and patience wise, no trades. Wanted to get short around 52 for gap fill. Internet dropped, and missed the entry. Then looking for long around the gap fill but could not see a clear entry on the trigger chart and dom.

With overall bias for an up day was looking for a scalp at 61 short on bof, and then see the reaction there. But no entry on LTF charts.

With pullback was looking for a test of 52-50, p.hi and hvn to get long, but only a shallow pullback.

Looking for a scalp short at 78-86, internet dropped again and missed the entry.

Spent rest of the afternoon on telephone to tech support to get it sorted. Hopefully it is sorted now.

2015-11-27_1624

27th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0745 Span CPI

0930 UK GDP

1200 Ger Cons Clim

1025 Italy Auc

1200 GER Cons Clim

Stats

DATR 0.67-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 57.49

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Up normal range week with strong bull close, weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Neutral sc 3.6

Bias – Long SC 3.6

What happened – OIR rot up to bof y.hi and rot down to test y.val and rej back into va and bal

Hypo 1 – Up – if price bac 47 then longs t 61 (p.hi) bac 61 t 78-86 t2 00-08 t3 16

Hypo 2 – Range – if price holds / bof 35-47 then shorts t 25-21 t2 11 bac 11 t 00-90; if price holds 00-90 then longs t 11 t 2 21

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 90 then shorts t 84 t2 75-67 t2 60-52

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 58.47 then 61 For long trades  57.90

26th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

US Holiday

0800 EZ Span GDP

1200 Ger Cons Clim

Stats

DATR 0.70-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 57.49

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Up normal range week with strong bull close, weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Trend Up day with strong bull close

Bias – Long SC 3.6

What happened – OIR test and rej of vah and rot up on Russian news to test and bof y.hi and into bal till US news then rot back to bz and rej back to vpoc and into bal around mid

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds / bof 34/39 then shorts t 18-11 bac 11 t 04-90, if price holds 04-91 then longs t 18

Hypo 2 – Up – if price bac 39 then longs t 50-61 bac 61 t 78-86 t2 00-08 t3 16

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 90 then shorts t 84 t2 75-67 t2 60-52

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 58.39 For long trades 57.90

25th Nov – Bund Daily Trade Plan

Main trade –

News

0930 UK BBA Mort

1035 Ger Auct

1330 US Dur Goods/Ini Jobs

1445 Us Servs Pmi

1500 US New Home Sales

Stats

DATR 0.70-

WATR 2.01-

WK.50% 57.49

M.50% 57.15

Weekly Summary – Up normal range week with strong bull close, weekly hi at 58.60

Previous Day –  Normal day with neutral close (bof of y.hi and inside)

Bias – Neutral SC 3.2

What happened – OIR test and rej of vah and rot up on Russian news to test and bof y.hi and into bal till US news then rot back to bz and rej back to vpoc and into bal around mid

Hypo 1 – Range – if price holds 56-43 then longs t 78-85, if price holds 85-03 then shorts t 70

Hypo 2 – Up if price bac 03 then longs t 13-24 bac 24 t 30-40 t2 52-60

Hypo 3 – Down – if price bac 43 t 35 t2 20-15 bac 156 t 06 t2 96 t3 84-78

Red flag levels – For short trades bac 58.03 For long trades  57.43 then 14